{"metric":{"id":"elo","name":"11footy Elo","short":"Elo","level":"rating","unit":"points","tier":"flagship","summary":"A rating of how strong a club (or a national team) has proved to be, computed by 11footy from results and goals only.","definition":"Every side has a number. After each match the winner takes points from the loser, more for a wider margin and for a result the ratings did not expect. A rating difference of 100 points means the stronger side is expected to score about 64% of the available points.","inputs":["Clubs: the final score of every league match since 2014-15, in the order played; each league has its own scale.","National teams: the final score, the tournament and whether the ground was neutral, for every international since 1872 (the World Football Elo method)."],"formula":["Expected score = 1 / (1 + 10^(-d / 400)), d = own rating - opponent's (+ the home advantage for the home side).","New rating = old + K x margin factor x (result - expected score); result 1, 0.5 or 0.","Clubs: K = 20, home advantage 60, margin factor 1 for 0-1 goals, 1.5 for 2, (11 + N) / 8 from 3; a new season keeps 75% of the distance from 1500. National teams: K from 20 (friendly) to 60 (World Cup finals), home advantage 100.","The rating used for a match is always the one before it."],"readings":[{"name":"Club rating","what":"per league, on that league's scale"},{"name":"National-team rating","what":"one scale for all internationals"}],"sample":["A rating needs a history: the clubs' ratings start at 1500 in 2014-15, so the first two seasons only warm them up and are not part of the check.","A club that was not in the league the season before starts at 1450.","National teams start at 1500 at their first recorded match; the check begins in 2010, long after every established side has a history."],"limits":["Club ratings are computed league by league: a 1600 in one league is not a 1600 in another, so the ranking of the five leagues together is a rough order, not a measurement.","Only results and goals: no line-ups, injuries, transfers or expected goals.","Clubs start at 1500 in 2014-15; the first seasons are a warm-up.","The European cups have their own rating of the cup clubs, on its own scale, shown on the Europe pages."],"shown_in":[{"label":"Teams: strength ranking","href":"/teams?tab=ranking"},{"label":"Team pages: strength over time","href":"/teams"},{"label":"Match pages: Elo ranking of the two sides","href":"/matches"},{"label":"National teams: strength ranking","href":"/nations"}],"page":"/lab/metrics/elo","validation":{"clubs":{"matches":18234,"logloss":0.9845,"baseline_logloss":1.071,"rps":0.2004,"baseline_rps":0.2301,"accuracy":0.5277,"baseline_accuracy":0.4407,"first":2016,"last":2026,"rows":[{"key":2016,"matches":1826,"logloss":0.946,"baseline_logloss":1.0508,"rps":0.1922,"baseline_rps":0.2273},{"key":2017,"matches":1826,"logloss":0.9696,"baseline_logloss":1.065,"rps":0.1968,"baseline_rps":0.2293},{"key":2018,"matches":1826,"logloss":0.985,"baseline_logloss":1.0708,"rps":0.1992,"baseline_rps":0.2276},{"key":2019,"matches":1725,"logloss":0.993,"baseline_logloss":1.07,"rps":0.2049,"baseline_rps":0.2315},{"key":2020,"matches":1826,"logloss":1.0062,"baseline_logloss":1.0898,"rps":0.2062,"baseline_rps":0.236},{"key":2021,"matches":1826,"logloss":0.9969,"baseline_logloss":1.0759,"rps":0.2025,"baseline_rps":0.2299},{"key":2022,"matches":1826,"logloss":0.9899,"baseline_logloss":1.063,"rps":0.2036,"baseline_rps":0.2292},{"key":2023,"matches":1752,"logloss":0.9773,"baseline_logloss":1.0763,"rps":0.1946,"baseline_rps":0.2286},{"key":2024,"matches":1752,"logloss":0.9875,"baseline_logloss":1.0785,"rps":0.2012,"baseline_rps":0.2329},{"key":2025,"matches":1752,"logloss":0.9968,"baseline_logloss":1.0712,"rps":0.2034,"baseline_rps":0.2288},{"key":2026,"matches":297,"logloss":0.9725,"baseline_logloss":1.0683,"rps":0.1968,"baseline_rps":0.2282}],"rated":21886},"nations":{"matches":16278,"logloss":0.8876,"baseline_logloss":1.0479,"rps":0.1748,"baseline_rps":0.2267,"accuracy":0.5933,"baseline_accuracy":0.4773,"first":2010,"last":2026,"rows":[{"key":2010,"matches":863,"logloss":0.9484,"baseline_logloss":1.0685,"rps":0.1899,"baseline_rps":0.2294},{"key":2011,"matches":1119,"logloss":0.8589,"baseline_logloss":1.0425,"rps":0.1668,"baseline_rps":0.2249},{"key":2012,"matches":1025,"logloss":0.9201,"baseline_logloss":1.0364,"rps":0.1885,"baseline_rps":0.227},{"key":2013,"matches":963,"logloss":0.9027,"baseline_logloss":1.0474,"rps":0.1753,"baseline_rps":0.2221},{"key":2014,"matches":856,"logloss":0.9486,"baseline_logloss":1.0523,"rps":0.1897,"baseline_rps":0.2255},{"key":2015,"matches":1039,"logloss":0.8735,"baseline_logloss":1.0455,"rps":0.1755,"baseline_rps":0.2323},{"key":2016,"matches":920,"logloss":0.8796,"baseline_logloss":1.0337,"rps":0.1728,"baseline_rps":0.2231},{"key":2017,"matches":924,"logloss":0.9163,"baseline_logloss":1.0635,"rps":0.178,"baseline_rps":0.2244},{"key":2018,"matches":929,"logloss":0.935,"baseline_logloss":1.0587,"rps":0.1843,"baseline_rps":0.225},{"key":2019,"matches":1149,"logloss":0.837,"baseline_logloss":1.0349,"rps":0.1647,"baseline_rps":0.2273},{"key":2020,"matches":347,"logloss":0.986,"baseline_logloss":1.0826,"rps":0.1961,"baseline_rps":0.2287},{"key":2021,"matches":1115,"logloss":0.8017,"baseline_logloss":1.0365,"rps":0.1496,"baseline_rps":0.2244},{"key":2022,"matches":970,"logloss":0.9105,"baseline_logloss":1.0367,"rps":0.1822,"baseline_rps":0.2238},{"key":2023,"matches":1054,"logloss":0.8657,"baseline_logloss":1.047,"rps":0.1727,"baseline_rps":0.2315},{"key":2024,"matches":1231,"logloss":0.8995,"baseline_logloss":1.0592,"rps":0.1737,"baseline_rps":0.2257},{"key":2025,"matches":1002,"logloss":0.8189,"baseline_logloss":1.042,"rps":0.158,"baseline_rps":0.2284},{"key":2026,"matches":772,"logloss":0.8956,"baseline_logloss":1.0567,"rps":0.1787,"baseline_rps":0.2328}]}},"validation_says":["Clubs, 2016-17 to 2026-27: on 18,234 matches, each scored with a mapping fitted on the seasons before it, log loss 0.985 against 1.071 for the league's home/draw/away frequencies alone.","National teams, 2010 to 2026: on 16,278 matches, log loss 0.888 against 1.048 for the home/neutral frequencies alone."],"parameters":{"clubs":{"initial":1500.0,"newcomer":1450.0,"k":20.0,"home_advantage":60.0,"season_keep":0.75},"nations":{"start":1500.0,"home_bonus":100.0,"k":{"World Cup finals":60,"continental finals and major tournaments":50,"qualifiers and Nations Leagues":40,"other tournaments":30,"friendlies":20}}}},"data":{"built_at":"2026-10-13T08:50:47Z","data_through":"2026-10-12T19:00:00Z"},"min_minutes":900,"small_minutes":450,"rule":"Every number here is computed by 11footy from base data (results, line-ups, minutes, shots). A provider's own derived metrics are not read anywhere."}