Every kind of forecast, checked
For each thing Vesta gives a chance or a number to, what it expected and what happened. A forecast of 30% should come true about 3 times in 10: the closer the two columns, the more its numbers can be taken at their word.
Past seasons, hidden and predicted
16,364 league matches since 2017-18| Season | Matches | Favourites won | Expected | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 so far | 253 | 49.8% | 49.5% | 32 |
| 2025-26 test season | 1,752 | 52.1% | 51.2% | 207 |
| 2024-25 test season | 1,752 | 53.4% | 53.3% | 219 |
| 2023-24 | 1,752 | 53.6% | 53.4% | 238 |
| 2022-23 | 1,826 | 53.3% | 52.8% | 236 |
| 2021-22 | 1,826 | 51.9% | 52.2% | 241 |
| 2020-21 | 1,826 | 52.5% | 52.2% | 242 |
| 2019-20 | 1,725 | 52.8% | 52.8% | 220 |
| 2018-19 | 1,826 | 52.3% | 53.2% | 242 |
| 2017-18 | 1,826 | 54.3% | 54.7% | 223 |
| League | Matches | Favourites won | Expected | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bundesliga | 2,791 | 51.7% | 54.0% | 335 |
  Ligue 1 | 3,143 | 50.9% | 51.4% | 377 |
  La Liga | 3,490 | 52.7% | 51.3% | 505 |
  Premier League | 3,470 | 54.8% | 54.2% | 417 |
  Serie A | 3,470 | 53.8% | 53.5% | 466 |
Brier score: the average, over every outcome Vesta gave a chance to, of the squared gap between that chance and what happened (1 if it happened, 0 if not). 0 is perfect; for the match result, giving each of the three outcomes a third scores 0.222. The charts show only the chance bands with 20 forecasts or more.
Match result
Who wins, the result combinations and the winning margin.Match resultThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 52.7% 52.9%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 43.6% | 43.5% | 16,404 |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.2% | 16,404 |
| Away win | 31.6% | 31.2% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1942 (0 is perfect).
Result combinationsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 78.8% 78.6%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win or draw | 68.4% | 68.8% | 16,404 |
| Either side wins | 75.2% | 74.8% | 16,404 |
| Away win or draw | 56.4% | 56.5% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1942 (0 is perfect).
Winning margin Home side by 2 goalsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 76.8% 77.5%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win by 3 or more | 10.9% | 10.4% | 16,404 |
| Home win by exactly 2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | 16,404 |
| Home win by 1 at most, or do not win | 76.2% | 77.4% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1144 (0 is perfect).
Winning margin Home side by 1 goalThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 60.4% 60.2%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win by 2 or more | 23.8% | 22.6% | 16,404 |
| Home win by exactly 1 | 19.8% | 20.9% | 16,404 |
| Home do not win | 56.4% | 56.5% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1758 (0 is perfect).
Winning margin Away side by 1 goalThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 69.4% 69.5%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Away do not win | 68.4% | 68.8% | 16,404 |
| Away win by exactly 1 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 16,404 |
| Away win by 2 or more | 15.1% | 14.5% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1443 (0 is perfect).
Winning margin Away side by 2 goalsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 85.0% 85.6%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Away win by 1 at most, or do not win | 84.9% | 85.5% | 16,404 |
| Away win by exactly 2 | 9.1% | 8.6% | 16,404 |
| Away win by 3 or more | 6.0% | 5.9% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.0799 (0 is perfect).
Goals
How many goals in the match and for each side, and whether both sides score.Total goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 93.5% 93.4%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more goals | 93.5% | 93.4% | 16,404 |
| No goals | 6.5% | 6.6% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.061 (0 is perfect).
Total goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 77.9% 77.0%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or more goals | 77.9% | 77.0% | 16,404 |
| 1 or fewer goals | 22.1% | 23.0% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1735 (0 is perfect).
Total goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 57.7% 57.8%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more goals | 53.5% | 53.1% | 16,404 |
| 2 or fewer goals | 46.5% | 46.9% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.2412 (0 is perfect).
Total goals 4 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 69.0% 69.5%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or more goals | 31.5% | 30.7% | 16,404 |
| 3 or fewer goals | 68.5% | 69.3% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.2056 (0 is perfect).
Total goals 5 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 84.3% 84.8%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 15.8% | 15.2% | 16,404 |
| 4 or fewer goals | 84.2% | 84.8% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1258 (0 is perfect).
Home team's goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 77.4% 77.3%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more home goals | 77.4% | 77.2% | 16,404 |
| No home goals | 22.6% | 22.8% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1654 (0 is perfect).
Home team's goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 63.7% 63.5%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or more home goals | 44.9% | 44.6% | 16,404 |
| 1 or fewer home goals | 55.1% | 55.4% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.224 (0 is perfect).
Home team's goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 79.8% 80.1%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more home goals | 21.0% | 20.3% | 16,404 |
| 2 or fewer home goals | 79.0% | 79.7% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1469 (0 is perfect).
Away team's goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 70.7% 70.4%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more away goals | 70.4% | 70.1% | 16,404 |
| No away goals | 29.6% | 29.9% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1974 (0 is perfect).
Away team's goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 67.9% 67.8%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or more away goals | 35.5% | 35.2% | 16,404 |
| 1 or fewer away goals | 64.5% | 64.8% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.2094 (0 is perfect).
Away team's goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 86.0% 86.3%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more away goals | 14.1% | 13.7% | 16,404 |
| 2 or fewer away goals | 85.9% | 86.3% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.1096 (0 is perfect).
Both teams scoreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 55.9% 55.4%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both score | 54.3% | 53.9% | 16,404 |
| Not both | 45.7% | 46.1% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.2456 (0 is perfect).
Exact score
The final score. 121 scores are given a chance every match.Exact scoreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 16,404 matches 12.7% 12.8%
| Outcome | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 16,404 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 9.2% | 16,404 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 8.8% | 16,404 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 7.0% | 16,404 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 7.2% | 16,404 |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 16,404 |
| 0-0 | 6.5% | 6.6% | 16,404 |
| 2-2 | 5.2% | 5.5% | 16,404 |
| 0-2 | 5.1% | 5.0% | 16,404 |
| 3-1 | 4.5% | 4.3% | 16,404 |
| 3-0 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 16,404 |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 16,404 |
Brier score 0.0077 (0 is perfect).
Players in a match
Players to watch: each player's chance to start, to score, to assist, and his shots, worked out with what was known before kickoff. Checked on 2022-23 to 2026-27.Starts the matchHow often it was said, against how often it happened, 372,965 players 43.7% 43.4%
Brier score 0.1425 (0 is perfect). Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 21.6% more informative (log loss 0.536 against 0.684).
ScoresHow often it was said, against how often it happened, 378,189 players 4.9% 4.8%
Brier score 0.0417 (0 is perfect). Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 12.7% more informative (log loss 0.169 against 0.193).
Scores twice or moreHow often it was said, against how often it happened, 378,189 players 0.4% 0.4%
Brier score 0.0043 (0 is perfect). Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 21.5% more informative (log loss 0.023 against 0.029).
Gives an assistHow often it was said, against how often it happened, 378,189 players 3.6% 3.5%
Brier score 0.0326 (0 is perfect). Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 7.0% more informative (log loss 0.142 against 0.152).
Scores or assistsHow often it was said, against how often it happened, 378,189 players 8.2% 7.9%
Brier score 0.0646 (0 is perfect). Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 10.3% more informative (log loss 0.247 against 0.275).
ShotsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 378,189 players 0.46 0.49
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more shots | 26.2% | 27.5% | 378,189 |
| 2 or more shots | 11.3% | 12.5% | 378,189 |
| 3 or more shots | 4.9% | 5.5% | 378,189 |
On average Vesta expected 0.46 and 0.49 came; a typical miss of 0.52.
Team numbers of a match
The numbers to expect on the match page: shots, shots on target, corners, fouls, yellow cards. Checked on 2021-22 to 2026-27.ShotsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 18,146 sides 12.52 12.66
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 or more shots | 77.7% | 78.0% | 18,146 |
| 12 or more shots | 53.6% | 54.5% | 18,146 |
| 16 or more shots | 25.2% | 26.4% | 18,146 |
On average Vesta expected 12.52 and 12.66 came; a typical miss of 3.54.
Shots on targetThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 18,146 sides 4.26 4.30
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more shots on target | 75.1% | 75.6% | 18,146 |
| 4 or more shots on target | 57.8% | 58.5% | 18,146 |
| 6 or more shots on target | 27.0% | 27.7% | 18,146 |
On average Vesta expected 4.26 and 4.3 came; a typical miss of 1.72.
CornersThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 18,062 sides 4.79 4.84
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more corners | 79.2% | 78.9% | 18,062 |
| 4 or more corners | 64.2% | 64.4% | 18,062 |
| 6 or more corners | 35.0% | 35.8% | 18,062 |
On average Vesta expected 4.79 and 4.84 came; a typical miss of 2.06.
FoulsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 18,062 sides 11.92 11.90
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 or more fouls | 80.8% | 80.8% | 18,062 |
| 12 or more fouls | 51.7% | 51.7% | 18,062 |
| 14 or more fouls | 32.2% | 32.2% | 18,062 |
On average Vesta expected 11.92 and 11.9 came; a typical miss of 2.82.
Yellow cardsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 18,062 sides 2.04 2.04
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more yellow cards | 86.2% | 87.5% | 18,062 |
| 2 or more yellow cards | 59.7% | 61.4% | 18,062 |
| 3 or more yellow cards | 33.5% | 33.5% | 18,062 |
On average Vesta expected 2.04 and 2.04 came; a typical miss of 1.08.
Player numbers of the next match
The Lab's projections for a player's next match, number by number. Checked on 2021-22 to 2025-26.ShotsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.97 0.97
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more shots | 51.7% | 51.3% | 192,452 |
| 2 or more shots | 25.0% | 25.4% | 192,452 |
| 3 or more shots | 11.4% | 11.8% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.97 and 0.97 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 12.6% more informative (log loss 0.35 against 0.401).
Shots on targetThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.33 0.33
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more shots on target | 24.9% | 24.7% | 192,452 |
| 2 or more shots on target | 6.2% | 6.3% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.33 and 0.33 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 30.1% more informative (log loss 0.182 against 0.26).
Big chancesThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.11 0.12
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more big chances | 9.7% | 10.2% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.11 and 0.12 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 45.3% more informative (log loss 0.089 against 0.163).
Shots in the boxThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.60 0.61
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more shots in the box | 37.3% | 37.4% | 192,452 |
| 2 or more shots in the box | 13.9% | 14.7% | 192,452 |
| 3 or more shots in the box | 5.4% | 5.8% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.6 and 0.61 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 19.6% more informative (log loss 0.271 against 0.338).
HeadersThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.18 0.18
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more headers | 14.4% | 14.3% | 192,452 |
| 2 or more headers | 2.5% | 2.6% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.18 and 0.18 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 37.4% more informative (log loss 0.118 against 0.189).
Key passesThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.73 0.74
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more key passes | 44.6% | 43.9% | 192,452 |
| 2 or more key passes | 18.0% | 18.3% | 192,452 |
| 3 or more key passes | 6.7% | 7.2% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.73 and 0.74 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 16.3% more informative (log loss 0.318 against 0.38).
Big chances set upThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.09 0.10
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more big chances set up | 8.1% | 8.6% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.09 and 0.1 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 50.9% more informative (log loss 0.079 against 0.16).
Crosses to a shotThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.14 0.14
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more crosses to a shot | 11.0% | 11.3% | 192,452 |
| 2 or more crosses to a shot | 2.1% | 2.1% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.14 and 0.14 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 39.7% more informative (log loss 0.099 against 0.163).
Through balls to a shotThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.02 0.02
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more through balls to a shot | 1.8% | 2.1% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.02 and 0.02 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 57.7% more informative (log loss 0.025 against 0.059).
Yellow cardsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 192,452 player matches 0.15 0.15
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more yellow cards | 14.1% | 15.1% | 192,452 |
On average Vesta expected 0.15 and 0.15 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 46.9% more informative (log loss 0.107 against 0.201).
Team numbers of the next match
The Lab's projections for a team's next match, made and conceded. Checked on 2021-22 to 2025-26.GoalsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 1.42 1.41
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more goals | 74.1% | 74.2% | 17,709 |
| 3 or more goals | 17.7% | 17.2% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 1.42 and 1.41 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 5.4% more informative (log loss 0.486 against 0.514).
ShotsThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 12.47 12.62
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more shots | 93.3% | 93.6% | 17,709 |
| 8 or more shots | 83.2% | 84.3% | 17,709 |
| 10 or more shots | 68.8% | 70.1% | 17,709 |
| 12 or more shots | 52.8% | 54.2% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 12.47 and 12.62 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 13.9% more informative (log loss 0.449 against 0.522).
Shots on targetThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 4.29 4.29
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or more shots on target | 89.6% | 89.5% | 17,709 |
| 4 or more shots on target | 58.4% | 58.4% | 17,709 |
| 6 or more shots on target | 27.4% | 27.6% | 17,709 |
| 8 or more shots on target | 9.9% | 9.8% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 4.29 and 4.29 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 6.6% more informative (log loss 0.445 against 0.477).
Big chancesThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 1.55 1.58
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more big chances | 74.0% | 73.6% | 17,709 |
| 3 or more big chances | 21.6% | 22.6% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 1.55 and 1.58 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 5.9% more informative (log loss 0.525 against 0.558).
Shots in the boxThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 7.94 7.98
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or more shots in the box | 95.3% | 94.9% | 17,709 |
| 5 or more shots in the box | 81.5% | 81.4% | 17,709 |
| 7 or more shots in the box | 60.5% | 60.9% | 17,709 |
| 9 or more shots in the box | 39.2% | 39.8% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 7.94 and 7.98 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 10.7% more informative (log loss 0.463 against 0.518).
Shots from set piecesThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 3.19 3.20
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more shots from set pieces | 92.6% | 91.9% | 17,709 |
| 3 or more shots from set pieces | 56.7% | 56.6% | 17,709 |
| 5 or more shots from set pieces | 24.0% | 24.3% | 17,709 |
| 7 or more shots from set pieces | 7.9% | 8.6% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 3.19 and 3.2 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 8.7% more informative (log loss 0.443 against 0.485).
Goals concededThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 1.41 1.40
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more goals conceded | 74.0% | 74.0% | 17,709 |
| 3 or more goals conceded | 17.6% | 17.1% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 1.41 and 1.4 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 7.9% more informative (log loss 0.486 against 0.528).
Shots concededThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 12.44 12.60
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more shots conceded | 93.3% | 93.6% | 17,709 |
| 8 or more shots conceded | 83.1% | 84.2% | 17,709 |
| 10 or more shots conceded | 68.6% | 70.0% | 17,709 |
| 12 or more shots conceded | 52.5% | 54.1% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 12.44 and 12.6 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 12.4% more informative (log loss 0.451 against 0.514).
Shots on target concededThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 4.27 4.28
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 or more shots on target conceded | 89.5% | 89.4% | 17,709 |
| 4 or more shots on target conceded | 58.2% | 58.2% | 17,709 |
| 6 or more shots on target conceded | 27.2% | 27.4% | 17,709 |
| 8 or more shots on target conceded | 9.8% | 9.7% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 4.27 and 4.28 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 9.1% more informative (log loss 0.445 against 0.49).
Big chances concededThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 1.55 1.57
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more big chances conceded | 73.9% | 73.5% | 17,709 |
| 3 or more big chances conceded | 21.5% | 22.5% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 1.55 and 1.57 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 9.6% more informative (log loss 0.525 against 0.581).
SavesThe number expected on average, against the number that came, 17,709 sides 2.91 2.92
| Line | Said | Happened | Times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more saves | 92.3% | 92.2% | 17,709 |
| 3 or more saves | 52.9% | 53.0% | 17,709 |
| 5 or more saves | 18.9% | 19.1% | 17,709 |
On average Vesta expected 2.91 and 2.92 came. Against giving everyone the same chance, Vesta's numbers are 6.7% more informative (log loss 0.469 against 0.503).