Vesta

Every kind of forecast, checked

For each thing Vesta gives a chance or a number to, what it expected and what happened. A forecast of 30% should come true about 3 times in 10: the closer the two columns, the more its numbers can be taken at their word.

Club matches with a published forecast, played

kinds of forecast checked

5.4 pts

average gap, said against happened

Published, 176 matches Past seasons, 16,404 The last forecast published before the real kick-off of each match, as it was published, never changed afterwards.

Club matches, 43 National teams, 133 European cups, 0

Who made these forecasts

Each kind of match has its own model; each is checked apart.

Model of the forecasts checked	Matches
Club matches
Club champion with H01b, H19, H20, H21, H22	43
National teams
National-team Elo-Poisson model	133
European cups
No forecast checked yet	0

The current club champion, dc_xg2_cal_pl_pool_com (H01b, H19, H20, H21, H22, H24), has no checked forecast yet: its first ones are checked as their matches are played. When a kick-off moved to another day, the forecast published last before the real kick-off is the one checked; 74 earlier forecasts published under the old date are kept in the log but not checked. 3 matches forecast before kick-off were called off (15 forecasts kept in the log, not checked): Sri Lanka v Djibouti, 2026-10-03, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401912238 STATUS_CANCELED); Tunisia v Mali, 2026-10-03, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401916228 STATUS_CANCELED); Bolivia v Gambia, 2026-10-04, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401925303 STATUS_CANCELED).

Vesta Live, checked

184 changes after goals, red cards and half-time, in 40 finished matches

0.155 → 0.117Brier score of the result, just before and just after each event (lower is better)

0.795 → 0.607log loss of the result, before and after

184changes checked: a small sample so far, it grows with every match

Chance given after an event	Times	Said	Happened
0–10%	184	3%	3%
10–25%	105	18%	18%
25–40%	99	33%	30%
40–55%	31	48%	55%
55–70%	29	65%	66%
70–85%	35	77%	77%
85–100%	69	96%	96%

The live 1X2 is a model estimate: on past seasons it beats the forecast before kick-off at every minute, but its calibration is not yet within our tolerance at half-time and near the end. How Vesta works ›

Brier score: the average, over every outcome Vesta gave a chance to, of the squared gap between that chance and what happened (1 if it happened, 0 if not). 0 is perfect; for the match result, giving each of the three outcomes a third scores 0.222. The charts show only the chance bands with 20 forecasts or more.

Match result

Who wins, the result combinations and the winning margin.

ForecastVesta saidHappenedGap

Match resultThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 50.7% 60.5%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Home win	44.5%	53.5%	43
Draw	25.0%	27.9%	43
Away win	30.5%	18.6%	43

Brier score 0.1853 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Result combinationsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 77.8% 83.7%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Home win or draw	69.5%	81.4%	43
Either side wins	75.0%	72.1%	43
Away win or draw	55.5%	46.5%	43

Brier score 0.1853 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Winning margin Home side by 2 goalsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 76.0% 79.1%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Home win by 3 or more	11.4%	18.6%	43
Home win by exactly 2	13.1%	7.0%	43
Home win by 1 at most, or do not win	75.4%	74.4%	43

Brier score 0.1157 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Winning margin Home side by 1 goalThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 59.5% 48.8%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Home win by 2 or more	24.6%	25.6%	43
Home win by exactly 1	19.9%	27.9%	43
Home do not win	55.5%	46.5%	43

Brier score 0.1851 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Winning margin Away side by 1 goalThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 70.2% 79.1%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Away do not win	69.5%	81.4%	43
Away win by exactly 1	16.4%	9.3%	43
Away win by 2 or more	14.2%	9.3%	43

Brier score 0.1063 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Winning margin Away side by 2 goalsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 85.8% 90.7%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Away win by 1 at most, or do not win	85.8%	90.7%	43
Away win by exactly 2	8.8%	7.0%	43
Away win by 3 or more	5.4%	2.3%	43

Brier score 0.0559 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Goals

How many goals in the match and for each side, and whether both sides score.

ForecastVesta saidHappenedGap

Total goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 94.9% 95.3%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
1 or more goals	94.9%	95.3%	43
No goals	5.1%	4.7%	43

Brier score 0.044 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Total goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 81.1% 86.0%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
2 or more goals	81.1%	86.0%	43
1 or fewer goals	18.9%	14.0%	43

Brier score 0.1228 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Total goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 59.4% 69.8%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
3 or more goals	57.8%	69.8%	43
2 or fewer goals	42.2%	30.2%	43

Brier score 0.2203 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Total goals 4 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 65.3% 62.8%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
4 or more goals	35.6%	39.5%	43
3 or fewer goals	64.4%	60.5%	43

Brier score 0.2348 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Total goals 5 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 81.7% 81.4%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
5 or more goals	18.3%	18.6%	43
4 or fewer goals	81.7%	81.4%	43

Brier score 0.1505 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Home team's goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 80.9% 86.0%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
1 or more home goals	80.9%	86.0%	43
No home goals	19.1%	14.0%	43

Brier score 0.1204 (0 is perfect).

Home team's goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 61.9% 65.1%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
2 or more home goals	49.0%	62.8%	43
1 or fewer home goals	51.0%	37.2%	43

Brier score 0.214 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Home team's goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 77.6% 76.7%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
3 or more home goals	23.6%	30.2%	43
2 or fewer home goals	76.4%	69.8%	43

Brier score 0.1802 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Away team's goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 73.4% 79.1%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
1 or more away goals	73.3%	76.7%	43
No away goals	26.7%	23.3%	43

Brier score 0.1663 (0 is perfect).

Away team's goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 64.5% 72.1%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
2 or more away goals	37.8%	37.2%	43
1 or fewer away goals	62.2%	62.8%	43

Brier score 0.2089 (0 is perfect).

Away team's goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 85.5% 90.7%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
3 or more away goals	14.9%	7.0%	43
2 or fewer away goals	85.1%	93.0%	43

Brier score 0.0751 (0 is perfect).

Both teams scoreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 59.7% 69.8%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
Both score	59.3%	67.4%	43
Not both	40.7%	32.6%	43

Brier score 0.2362 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Exact score

The final score. 121 scores are given a chance every match.

ForecastVesta saidHappenedGap

Exact scoreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 43 matches 12.7% 9.3%

Outcome	Said	Happened	Times
1-1	12.1%	9.3%	43
2-1	8.8%	16.3%	43
1-0	7.6%	9.3%	43
1-2	7.2%	4.7%	43
2-0	6.8%	0.0%	43
2-2	6.2%	14.0%	43
0-1	6.2%	0.0%	43
0-0	5.1%	4.7%	43
3-1	5.0%	7.0%	43
0-2	4.5%	7.0%	43
3-0	4.1%	7.0%	43
1-3	3.3%	0.0%	43

Brier score 0.0077 (0 is perfect).

Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Past seasons, hidden and predicted

16,364 league matches since 2017-18

52.9%favourites won, 8,652 of 16,364; 52.8% expected

2,100exact scores, 12.8% of matches; 2,064 expected

41.7%the chance given to what happened, on average

0.194Brier score, lower is better

Season by season

Season	Matches	Favourites won	Expected	Exact
2026-27 so far	253	49.8%	49.5%	32
2025-26 test season	1,752	52.1%	51.2%	207
2024-25 test season	1,752	53.4%	53.3%	219
2023-24	1,752	53.6%	53.4%	238
2022-23	1,826	53.3%	52.8%	236
2021-22	1,826	51.9%	52.2%	241
2020-21	1,826	52.5%	52.2%	242
2019-20	1,725	52.8%	52.8%	220
2018-19	1,826	52.3%	53.2%	242
2017-18	1,826	54.3%	54.7%	223

League by league

League	Matches	Favourites won	Expected	Exact
Bundesliga	2,791	51.7%	54.0%	335
Ligue 1	3,143	50.9%	51.4%	377
La Liga	3,490	52.7%	51.3%	505
Premier League	3,470	54.8%	54.2%	417
Serie A	3,470	53.8%	53.5%	466

Each season hidden from Vesta, which learned only from the seasons before it and predicted every match with what was known before kick-off.