Every shot, rated by our own model
the five leagues, 2014-15 to 2026-27An expected goal is the chance that a shot like this one ends in a goal, judged before anyone knows how it ended. Added up over a match or a season, it says how much a side or a player created, apart from how well the chances were finished.
Ours is our own: a model of gradient-boosted trees trained on the shots of past seasons only. Each season is rated by a model that never saw it (the first two seasons, which have nothing before them, by five models that each leave a fifth of the matches out). The model reads, for each shot:
- where it was taken: the distance to the goal, the angle the goal mouth opens, how far from the middle;
- how: right foot, left foot, head or other; open play, a corner, another set piece, a direct free kick or a penalty;
- what came just before: a pass, a cross, a through ball, a dribble, a rebound and so on, and whether a team-mate set it up;
- the moment: the minute, the score from the shooter's side, home or away, the time since the side's previous shot, a shot straight after one saved, blocked or off the post, and how many the side took in that minute.
It does not read what nobody recorded for every shot: where the goalkeeper and the defenders stood, or how hard the ball was struck. The numbers below are every rated shot against what came of it.
Said against happened
the shots grouped by the chance the model gave themSeason by season
a season is rated only by what came before it| Season | Shots | Goals | Expected | Exp. v goals | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | 45,596 | 4,636 | 4,629 | −0.2% | 0.246 |
| 2015-16 | 45,315 | 4,716 | 4,725 | +0.2% | 0.251 |
| 2016-17 | 45,750 | 5,045 | 4,852 | −3.8% | 0.261 |
| 2017-18 | 45,307 | 4,795 | 4,808 | +0.3% | 0.254 |
| 2018-19 | 47,065 | 4,883 | 5,054 | +3.5% | 0.254 |
| 2019-20 | 43,755 | 4,682 | 4,708 | +0.6% | 0.258 |
| 2020-21 | 43,241 | 4,960 | 4,891 | −1.4% | 0.269 |
| 2021-22 | 45,605 | 4,972 | 5,091 | +2.4% | 0.259 |
| 2022-23 | 45,684 | 4,882 | 5,110 | +4.7% | 0.259 |
| 2023-24 | 45,752 | 4,910 | 5,093 | +3.7% | 0.258 |
| 2024-25 | 43,621 | 4,803 | 4,908 | +2.2% | 0.263 |
| 2025-26 | 44,031 | 4,716 | 4,910 | +4.1% | 0.258 |
| 2026-27 | 8,273 | 870 | 885 | +1.8% | 0.261 |
By league
| League | Shots | Goals | Expected | Exp. v goals | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 96,786 | 11,061 | 10,736 | −2.9% | 0.270 |
| Ligue 1 | 103,990 | 11,182 | 11,126 | −0.5% | 0.255 |
| La Liga | 110,458 | 11,910 | 12,155 | +2.1% | 0.256 |
| Premier League | 117,634 | 12,495 | 13,139 | +5.1% | 0.260 |
| Serie A | 120,127 | 12,222 | 12,509 | +2.3% | 0.248 |
By situation
| Situation | Shots | Goals | Expected | Exp. v goals | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct free kicks | 21,644 | 1,254 | 1,305 | +4.0% | 0.209 |
| From a corner | 83,750 | 7,028 | 7,275 | +3.5% | 0.224 |
| Open play | 401,753 | 42,045 | 42,433 | +0.9% | 0.264 |
| Penalties | 6,827 | 5,316 | 5,229 | −1.6% | 0.529 |
| Other set pieces | 35,021 | 3,227 | 3,423 | +6.1% | 0.237 |
By body part
| Shot with | Shots | Goals | Expected | Exp. v goals | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | 94,305 | 9,704 | 10,076 | +3.8% | 0.271 |
| Left foot | 175,142 | 18,061 | 18,054 | ±0.0% | 0.252 |
| Other | 1,914 | 318 | 411 | +29.3% | 0.334 |
| Right foot | 277,634 | 30,787 | 31,122 | +1.1% | 0.256 |
Data to (the latest league match played), built . Unless a season is chosen, every view shows 2025-26 (2026-27 is still young: 0 players have 900 league minutes so far, so the numbers are of 2025-26 until half as many as last season do.). Percentiles and per-90 ranks from 900 league minutes, within the player's role, five leagues together; under 450 minutes a small sample.