La LigaVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Gordon2'
- Jesus30'
- Olmo46'
- Koundé73'
- López90+1'
- Femenía34'
- Mojica45+2'
- Boselli71'
- Terrats75'
88%Barcelona win · happened
9%Draw
3%Getafe win
Match events
3 goals · 6 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Barcelona
Getafe
GetafeFermín López90+1'
85'Saba SazonovKiko Femenía
Hamza AbdelkarimGabriel Jesus82'
75'Ramón Terrats
Jules Koundé · Lamine YamalBarcelona 99% → >99%
Draw 1% → <1%
Next goal Barcelona 52% → 51%
Goals to come 0.9 → 0.973'
Karim AdeyemiAnthony Gordon71'
Marc BernalRodri71'
71'Sebastián Boselli
65'Sebastián BoselliAndrés García
65'DavinchiJohan Mojica
65'Martín SatrianoIvan Azón
PedriDani Olmo61'
Fermín LópezGavi61'
Dani Olmo46'
Half time
45+2'Johan Mojica
37'Abdel AbqarZaid Romero
34'Kiko Femenía
Gabriel JesusBarcelona 94% → 99%
Draw 5% → 1%
Next goal Barcelona 78% → 79%
Goals to come 2.8 → 2.730'
Anthony GordonBarcelona 87% → 96%
Draw 9% → 3%
Next goal Barcelona 83% → 82%
Goals to come 3.8 → 3.72'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Barcelona 4-3-3line-ups5-4-1 Getafe
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: J. Koundé, G. Jesus, A. Gordon
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joan García | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jules Koundé | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0.58 | |
| Gerard Martín | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Eric Garcia | 90 | 1 | 0.04 | ||
| Xavi Espart | 90 | 2 | 0.15 | ||
| Lamine Yamal | 90 | 1 | 6 | 0.37 | |
| Gabriel Jesus | 86 | 1 | 2 | 0.62 | |
| Rodri | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Anthony Gordon | 75 | 1 | 3 | 0.41 | |
| Gavi | 65 | 2 | 0.03 | ||
| Dani Olmo | 65 | 2 | 0.37 | ||
| Fermín López sub | 25 | 2 | 0.11 | ||
| Pedri sub | 25 | 1 | 0.00 | ||
| Marc Bernal sub | 15 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Karim Adeyemi sub | 15 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Hamza Abdelkarim sub | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Soria | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Nemanja Gudelj | 90 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Djené Dakonam | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Mario Martín | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Francho Serrano | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Ramón Terrats | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Kiko Femenía | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Johan Mojica | 69 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Andrés García | 69 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Iván Azón | 69 | 1 | 0.06 | ||
| Zaid Romero | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Abdelkabir Abqar sub | 54 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Sebastián Boselli sub | 21 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Martín Satriano sub | 21 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Davinchi sub | 21 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Saba Sazonov sub | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
83%Possession17%
91%Passes completed62%
22Shots4
8Shots on target1
8Corners3
9Fouls11
1Offsides3
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
1Saves5
Every shot
Barcelona shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jules Koundé | Barcelona | 73' | Goal from a corner | 0.56 |
| Gabriel Jesus | Barcelona | 30' | Goal | 0.42 |
| Anthony Gordon | Barcelona | 53' | Saved | 0.32 |
| Dani Olmo | Barcelona | 25' | Blocked | 0.21 |
| Gabriel Jesus | Barcelona | 49' | Off target | 0.19 |
| Dani Olmo | Barcelona | 57' | Saved | 0.16 |
Barcelona win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 87%.
3.2–0.6goals expected; the chances made were worth 2.7–0.1
12%for 3–0, the likeliest score
75%three goals or more · happened
83%Barcelona to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Barcelona win
87%the likeliest
Exact score
3–0
12%the likeliest
Goals in the match
3 goals
21%the likeliest
Both teams score
At least one team does not score
55%the likeliest
Goals of Barcelona
3 or more
63%
Winning margin
Barcelona by 3 or more
50%the likeliest
Clean sheet
Barcelona win without conceding
51%
Half-time
Barcelona ahead at half-time
68%the likeliest
Second half
Barcelona win the second half
73%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the first half
32%2nd of 3
Half-time and full-time
Barcelona ahead at half-time, Barcelona win
66%the likeliest
First goal
Barcelona score first
83%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 1-15
42%the likeliest
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
4 scored or set up a goal
Barcelona
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus | 86′ | 1 | 47% | – | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon | 75′ | 1 | 36% | – | 20% |
| Jules Koundé | 90′ | 1 | 9% | – | 15% |
| Lamine Yamal | 90′ | – | 58% | 1 | 41% |
| Dani Olmo | 65′ | – | 32% | – | 31% |
| Rodri | 75′ | – | 13% | – | 14% |
| Eric Garcia | 90′ | – | 10% | – | 9% |
| Xavi Espart | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 15% |
| Fermín López | 25′ | – | 8% | – | 7% |
| Gavi | 65′ | – | 8% | – | 12% |
| Karim Adeyemi | 15′ | – | 5% | – | 2% |
| Pedri | 25′ | – | 3% | – | 6% |
| Gerard Martín | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 4% |
| Marc Bernal | 15′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim | 4′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Joan García | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Getafe
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Azón | 69′ | – | 20% | – | 9% |
| Ramón Terrats | 90′ | – | 7% | – | 7% |
| Francho Serrano | 90′ | – | 6% | – | 5% |
| Mario Martín | 90′ | – | 6% | – | 3% |
| Zaid Romero | 36′ | – | 4% | – | 1% |
| Nemanja Gudelj | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 2% |
| Kiko Femenía | 89′ | – | 2% | – | 3% |
| Andrés García | 69′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Johan Mojica | 69′ | – | 1% | – | 7% |
| Martín Satriano | 21′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Davinchi | 21′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Abdelkabir Abqar | 54′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| Sebastián Boselli | 21′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Saba Sazonov | 1′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| David Soria | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check