La LigaVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Bellingham19'
- Diomande62'
- Júnior72'
- Konaté81'
- Rüdiger83'
- Tchouaméni87'
- Mbappé90+4'
- Veiga10'
- Navarro84'
61%Real Madrid win · happened
21%Draw
18%Villarreal win
Match events
1 goals · 8 cards · 9 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Real Madrid
Villarreal
VillarrealKylian Mbappé90+4'
Aurélien Tchouaméni87'
86'Nizar El Jmili Ben HamouAlberto Moleiro
Denzel DumfriesYan Diomande86'
84'Pau Navarro
Antonio Rüdiger83'
Ibrahima Konaté81'
Eduardo CamavingaArda Güler77'
Vinícius JúniorReal Madrid 79% → 61%
Draw 18% → 30%
Next goal Real Madrid 38% → 22%
Goals to come 1.0 → 1.072'
67'Georges MikautadzeSergi Cardona
67'Gerard MorenoIlias Akhomach
Yan Diomande · Federico ValverdeReal Madrid 42% → 77%
Draw 40% → 18%
Next goal Real Madrid 48% → 46%
Goals to come 1.4 → 1.462'
56'Carlos RomeroJuan Foyth
56'Nathan SalibaSanti Comesaña
Vinícius JúniorTrent Alexander-Arnold52'
Marc CucurellaÁlvaro Carreras45'
Half time
Jude Bellingham19'
10'Renato Veiga
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1line-ups4-3-3 VillarrealVillarreal 4-3-3line-upReal Madrid 4-2-3-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: Y. Diomande
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Antonio Rüdiger | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Ibrahima Konaté | 90 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Federico Valverde | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Aurelien Tchouameni | 90 | 1 | 0.04 | ||
| Jude Bellingham | 90 | 2 | 0.05 | ||
| Kylian Mbappé | 90 | 3 | 0.65 | ||
| Yan Diomande | 86 | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | |
| Arda Güler | 77 | 1 | 0.14 | ||
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Álvaro Fernández | 46 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Marc Cucurella sub | 44 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Vinícius Júnior sub | 20 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Eduardo Camavinga sub | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Denzel Dumfries sub | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Péter Gulácsi | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Alexander Freeman | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Pau Navarro | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Renato Veiga | 90 | 2 | 0.02 | ||
| Pape Alassane Gueye | 90 | 4 | 0.11 | ||
| Ayoze Pérez | 90 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Alberto Moleiro | 86 | 2 | 0.14 | ||
| Sergi Cardona | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Ilias Akhomach | 67 | 1 | 0.00 | ||
| Juan Foyth | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Santiago Comesaña | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Nathan Saliba sub | 34 | 1 | 0.00 | ||
| Carlos Romero sub | 34 | 1 | 0.09 | ||
| Gerard Moreno sub | 23 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Georges Mikautadze sub | 23 | 2 | 0.15 | ||
| Nizar El Jmili sub | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
46%Possession54%
83%Passes completed89%
11Shots15
4Shots on target4
9Corners3
8Fouls13
3Offsides1
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
4Saves3
Every shot
Real Madrid shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 7' | Woodwork | 0.29 |
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 21' | Saved | 0.21 |
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 78' | Saved | 0.15 |
| Arda Güler | Real Madrid | 43' | Off target | 0.14 |
| Georges Mikautadze | Villarreal | 88' | Saved | 0.13 |
| Yan Diomande | Real Madrid | 63' | Goal | 0.11 |
Real Madrid win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 61%.
2.4–1.3goals expected; the chances made were worth 1.1–0.6
6%for 1–0, 7th likeliest of 36 scores
71%three goals or more · did not happen
64%Real Madrid to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Real Madrid win
61%the likeliest
Exact score
1–0
6%7th of 36
Goals in the match
1 goal
8%6th of 7
Both teams score
At least one team does not score
32%2nd of 2
Goals of Real Madrid
1 or more
92%
Winning margin
Real Madrid by 1
22%the likeliest
Clean sheet
Real Madrid win without conceding
24%
Half-time
Level at half-time
34%2nd of 3
Second half
Real Madrid win the second half
51%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the second half
48%the likeliest
Half-time and full-time
Level at half-time, Real Madrid win
17%2nd of 9
First goal
Real Madrid score first
64%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 61-75
5%5th of 6
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
2 scored or set up a goal
Real Madrid
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Diomande | 86′ | 1 | 25% | – | 25% |
| Federico Valverde | 90′ | – | 11% | 1 | 14% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 90′ | – | 58% | – | 20% |
| Jude Bellingham | 90′ | – | 27% | – | 19% |
| Arda Güler | 77′ | – | 17% | – | 25% |
| Aurelien Tchouameni | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 5% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 20′ | – | 8% | – | 4% |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 90′ | – | 7% | – | 2% |
| Ibrahima Konaté | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 3% |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 52′ | – | 3% | – | 16% |
| Denzel Dumfries | 4′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Eduardo Camavinga | 13′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Marc Cucurella | 44′ | – | 1% | – | 2% |
| Thibaut Courtois | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Villarreal
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoze Pérez | 90′ | – | 27% | – | 14% |
| Alberto Moleiro | 86′ | – | 17% | – | 15% |
| Pape Alassane Gueye | 90′ | – | 15% | – | 5% |
| Ilias Akhomach | 67′ | – | 11% | – | 11% |
| Santiago Comesaña | 56′ | – | 10% | – | 9% |
| Gerard Moreno | 23′ | – | 7% | – | 2% |
| Georges Mikautadze | 23′ | – | 7% | – | 2% |
| Sergi Cardona | 67′ | – | 4% | – | 10% |
| Alexander Freeman | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 3% |
| Juan Foyth | 56′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Nathan Saliba | 34′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Renato Veiga | 90′ | – | 1% | – | 2% |
| Carlos Romero | 34′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Pau Navarro | 90′ | – | 1% | – | 2% |
| Péter Gulácsi | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check