La LigaVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Boyé pen45+6'
- Pérez61'
- Grimaldo33'
- Lookman45'
- Le Normand45+1'
- Romero87'
- Cardoso90+2'
28%Alaves win
29%Draw
43%Atletico Madrid win · happened
Match events
3 goals · 4 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid90+2'Johnny Cardoso
87'Cristian Romero · Álex BaenaAtlético 21% → 93%
Draw 73% → 6%
Next goal Atlético 22% → 22%
Goals to come 0.3 → 0.3
Aitor MañasDenis Suárez79'
73'Alexander SørlothGiuliano Simeone
Ville KoskiNicolás Valentini71'
Ander GuevaraLucas Boyé64'
Mariano DíazToni Martínez64'
Carlos ProtesoniAntonio Blanco64'
62'Dávid HanckoRobin Le Normand
Ángel PérezAlaves 22% → 10%
Draw 47% → 40%
Next goal Alaves 28% → 15%
Goals to come 1.0 → 1.261'
57'Lee Kang-InPablo Barrios
Half time
Lucas Boyé penalty45+6'
45+1'Robin Le Normand
45'Julián ÁlvarezAdemola Lookman
45'Álex BaenaJonathan David
45'Ademola Lookman
33'Alejandro Grimaldo · Jonathan DavidAtlético 39% → 68%
Draw 34% → 22%
Next goal Atlético 48% → 45%
Goals to come 1.9 → 1.9
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Alaves 3-5-2line-ups4-2-3-1 Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid 4-2-3-1line-upAlaves 3-5-2line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: C. Romero, Á. Grimaldo, L. Boyé
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jonny | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Nahuel Tenaglia | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Abderrahmane Rebbach | 90 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Pablo Ibáñez | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Denis Suárez | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Nicolás Valentini | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Antonio Blanco | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Lucas Boyé | 70 | 1 | 1 | 0.78 | |
| Antonio Martínez | 70 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Ángel Pérez | 67 | 3 | 0.10 | ||
| Mariano sub | 20 | 2 | 0.23 | ||
| Ander Guevara sub | 20 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Carlos Benavídez sub | 20 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Ville Koski sub | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Aitor Mañas sub | 5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Oblak | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Marcos Llorente | 90 | 3 | 0.30 | ||
| Cristian Romero | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0.69 | |
| Álex Grimaldo | 90 | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | |
| Koke | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Johnny Cardoso | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Giuliano Simeone | 79 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Robin Le Normand | 68 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Pablo Barrios Rivas | 63 | 1 | 0.03 | ||
| Ademola Lookman | 52 | 3 | 0.59 | ||
| Jonathan David | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | |
| Julián Álvarez sub | 38 | 3 | 0.12 | ||
| Álex Baena sub | 38 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | |
| Lee Kang-In sub | 27 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| David Hancko sub | 22 | 1 | 0.20 | ||
| Alexander Sørloth sub | 11 | 1 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
32%Possession68%
81%Passes completed91%
8Shots21
3Shots on target7
0Corners10
11Fouls14
1Offsides2
0Yellow cards3
1Red cards0
5Saves2
Every shot
Alaves shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé | Alaves | 51' | Goal penalty | 0.78 |
| Cristian Romero | Atletico Madrid | 87' | Goal | 0.54 |
| Ademola Lookman | Atletico Madrid | 43' | Blocked | 0.51 |
| Mariano | Alaves | 85' | Off target | 0.21 |
| Marcos Llorente | Atletico Madrid | 66' | Saved | 0.21 |
| David Hancko | Atletico Madrid | 80' | Off target from a corner | 0.20 |
Atletico Madrid win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 43%.
1.2–1.5goals expected; the chances made were worth 1.1–2.3
10%for 1–2, 2nd likeliest of 36 scores
50%three goals or more · happened
42%Alaves to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Atletico Madrid win
43%the likeliest
Exact score
1–2
10%2nd of 36
Goals in the match
3 goals
22%2nd of 7
Both teams score
Both teams score
57%the likeliest
Goals of Alaves
1 or more
71%
Goals of Atletico Madrid
2 or more
44%
Winning margin
Atletico Madrid by 1
22%2nd of 7
Half-time
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time
32%2nd of 3
Second half
Second half level
38%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the second half
44%the likeliest
Half-time and full-time
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time, Atletico Madrid win
25%the likeliest
First goal
Alaves score first
42%2nd of 3
When the first goal came
Minutes 46-60
11%4th of 6
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
5 scored or set up a goal
Alaves
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé | 70′ | 1 | 31% | – | 7% |
| Antonio Martínez | 70′ | – | 27% | – | 9% |
| Pablo Ibáñez | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 4% |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach | 90′ | – | 7% | – | 12% |
| Ángel Pérez | 67′ | – | 6% | – | 17% |
| Denis Suárez | 85′ | – | 5% | – | 10% |
| Antonio Blanco | 70′ | – | 5% | – | 5% |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 1% |
| Nicolás Valentini | 77′ | – | 3% | – | 3% |
| Aitor Mañas | 5′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Jonny | 90′ | – | 1% | – | 3% |
| Ander Guevara | 20′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Ville Koski | 13′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Antonio Sivera | 90′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo | 90′ | 1 | 18% | – | 18% |
| Cristian Romero | 90′ | 1 | 8% | – | 4% |
| Jonathan David | 52′ | – | 27% | 1 | 13% |
| Álex Baena | 38′ | – | 2% | 1 | 3% |
| Ademola Lookman | 52′ | – | 24% | – | 7% |
| Giuliano Simeone | 79′ | – | 14% | – | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth | 11′ | – | 7% | – | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez | 38′ | – | 6% | – | 3% |
| Koke | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 8% |
| Robin Le Normand | 68′ | – | 5% | – | 3% |
| Johnny Cardoso | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 6% |
| Marcos Llorente | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 9% |
| Lee Kang-In | 27′ | – | 3% | – | 3% |
| David Hancko | 22′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| Jan Oblak | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check