Serie AVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Osmajic7'
- Messias15'
- Traoré74'
- Vásquez84'
- Wiafe85'
- Vitinha90+1'
- Sabelli90+5'
- Ranieri15'
- Oulaï21'
- Viery60'
- Vásquez og73'
35%Genoa win · happened
30%Draw
35%Fiorentina win
Match events
3 goals · 8 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Genoa
Fiorentina
FiorentinaStefano Sabelli90+5'
Vitinha90+1'
Samuel Wiafe85'
Johan Vásquez84'
Stefano SabelliMikael Ellertsson82'
David PuczkaKingsley Ehizibue81'
81'Pedro GonçalvesWilfried Gnonto
80'DodôÁlex Jiménez
Hamed Traoré74'
73'Johan Vásquez own goal
Alessandro MarcandalliSebastian Otoa66'
65'Mateo PellegrinoBeto
60'Viery
Samuel WiafeStephan El Shaarawy57'
VitinhaJunior Messias57'
Half time
45'VieryLuca Ranieri
45'Alieu NjieChrist Inao Oulaï
21'Christ Inao Oulaï
Junior Messias · Milutin OsmajicGenoa 61% → 85%
Draw 24% → 11%
Next goal Genoa 42% → 43%
Goals to come 2.1 → 2.115'
15'Luca Ranieri
Milutin Osmajic · Mikael EllertssonGenoa 34% → 61%
Draw 31% → 24%
Next goal Genoa 45% → 43%
Goals to come 2.4 → 2.37'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Genoa 4-2-3-1line-ups4-2-3-1 FiorentinaFiorentina 4-2-3-1line-upGenoa 4-2-3-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: M. Osmajic, J. Messias
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Bijlow | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Leo Østigard | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Johan Vásquez | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Hamed Junior Traore | 90 | 1 | 0.09 | ||
| Morten Frendrup | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Milutin Osmajic | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 |
| Mikael Ellertsson | 83 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | |
| Kingsley Ehizibue | 82 | 1 | 0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Otoa | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Junior Messias | 58 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | |
| Stephan El Shaarawy | 58 | 3 | 0.11 | ||
| Samuel Wiafe sub | 32 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Vitinha sub | 32 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Alessandro Marcandalli sub | 23 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| David Puczka sub | 8 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Stefano Sabelli sub | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David de Gea | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Radu Dragusin | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Valde | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Cher Ndour | 90 | 3 | 0.30 | ||
| Nicolo Fagioli | 90 | 1 | 0.06 | ||
| Franco Mastantuono | 90 | 3 | 0.16 | ||
| Wilfried Gnonto | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Alejandro Jiménez | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Beto | 66 | 1 | 0.10 | ||
| Luca Ranieri | 47 | 1 | 0.09 | ||
| Christ Inao Oulaï | 47 | 1 | 0.29 | ||
| Alieu Njie sub | 43 | 1 | 0.09 | ||
| Viery sub | 43 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Mateo Pellegrino sub | 24 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Dodô sub | 9 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Pote sub | 8 | 1 | 0.04 |
Stats
Match stats
37%Possession63%
76%Passes completed85%
10Shots12
4Shots on target3
3Corners4
11Fouls10
2Offsides2
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves2
Every shot
Genoa shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christ Inao Oulaï | Fiorentina | 42' | Off target | 0.29 |
| Junior Messias | Genoa | 15' | Goal | 0.27 |
| Milutin Osmajic | Genoa | 32' | Off target | 0.15 |
| Cher Ndour | Fiorentina | 10' | Saved | 0.14 |
| Cher Ndour | Fiorentina | 77' | Off target | 0.11 |
| Beto | Fiorentina | 64' | Off target | 0.10 |
Genoa win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 35%.
1.2–1.2goals expected; the chances made were worth 0.8–1.1
8%for 2–1, 4th likeliest of 36 scores
45%three goals or more · happened
46%Genoa to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Genoa win
35%the likeliest
Exact score
2–1
8%4th of 36
Goals in the match
3 goals
22%2nd of 7
Both teams score
Both teams score
54%the likeliest
Goals of Genoa
2 or more
35%
Goals of Fiorentina
1 or more
73%
Winning margin
Genoa by 1
20%2nd of 7
Half-time
Genoa ahead at half-time
28%2nd of 3
Second half
Fiorentina win the second half
31%2nd of 3
Halves
More goals in the first half
30%2nd of 3
Half-time and full-time
Genoa ahead at half-time, Genoa win
20%the likeliest
First goal
Genoa score first
46%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 1-15
30%the likeliest
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
3 scored or set up a goal
Genoa
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milutin Osmajic | 90′ | 1 | 29% | 1 | 12% |
| Junior Messias | 58′ | 1 | 16% | – | 11% |
| Mikael Ellertsson | 83′ | – | 5% | 1 | 5% |
| Hamed Junior Traore | 90′ | – | 18% | – | 14% |
| Stephan El Shaarawy | 58′ | – | 9% | – | 13% |
| Leo Østigard | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 4% |
| Kingsley Ehizibue | 82′ | – | 5% | – | 3% |
| Johan Vásquez | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 2% |
| Morten Frendrup | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 4% |
| David Puczka | 8′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Sebastian Otoa | 67′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Vitinha | 32′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Alessandro Marcandalli | 23′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| Stefano Sabelli | 7′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Justin Bijlow | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Fiorentina
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto | 66′ | – | 32% | – | 8% |
| Franco Mastantuono | 90′ | – | 21% | – | 13% |
| Wilfried Gnonto | 82′ | – | 12% | – | 11% |
| Cher Ndour | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 6% |
| Nicolo Fagioli | 90′ | – | 7% | – | 14% |
| Christ Inao Oulaï | 47′ | – | 5% | – | 7% |
| Alejandro Jiménez | 81′ | – | 4% | – | 8% |
| Mateo Pellegrino | 24′ | – | 4% | – | 1% |
| Luca Ranieri | 47′ | – | 4% | – | 3% |
| Radu Dragusin | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 5% |
| Alieu Njie | 43′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Viery | 43′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| Dodô | 9′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| David de Gea | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check