Serie AVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Sucic13'
- Çalhanoglu pen18'
- Thuram31'
83%Inter win · happened
12%Draw
5%Parma win
Match events
3 goals · 0 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Inter
Parma
Parma84'Matija FriganEl Bilal Toure
78'Sascha BritschgiFranco Carboni
Djed SpenceAndy Diouf73'
Luis HenriqueFederico Dimarco73'
62'Adrián BernabéVincent Sierro
62'Simone LontaniGiovanni Fabbian
61'José RomeroNesta Elphege
Aleksandar StankovicHakan Çalhanoglu61'
Lautaro MartínezMarcus Thuram61'
Ange-Yoan BonnyPio Esposito61'
Half time
Marcus Thuram · Henrikh MkhitaryanInter 98% → >99%
Draw 1% → <1%
Next goal Inter 75% → 74%
Goals to come 2.5 → 2.531'
Hakan Çalhanoglu penalty18'
Petar SucicInter 80% → 93%
Draw 14% → 6%
Next goal Inter 78% → 77%
Goals to come 3.2 → 3.113'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Inter 3-5-2line-ups3-4-2-1 ParmaParma 3-4-2-1line-upInter 3-5-2line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: P. Sucic, H. Calhanoglu, M. Thuram
Inter
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josep Martínez | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Yann Bisseck | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Carlos Augusto | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Benjamin Pavard | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0.41 | |
| Petar Sucic | 90 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | |
| Andy Diouf | 75 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Federico Dimarco | 75 | 4 | 0.34 | ||
| Hakan Calhanoglu | 63 | 1 | 2 | 0.81 | |
| Marcus Thuram | 63 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | 63 | 1 | 0.34 | ||
| Ange-Yoan Bonny sub | 27 | 2 | 0.55 | ||
| Lautaro Martínez sub | 27 | 3 | 0.35 | ||
| Aleksandar Stankovic sub | 27 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Luis Henrique sub | 15 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Djed Spence sub | 15 | 0 | 0.00 |
Parma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edoardo Corvi | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Diego Carlos | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Mariano Troilo | 90 | 1 | 0.09 | ||
| Enrico Del Prato | 90 | 1 | 0.04 | ||
| Emanuele Valeri | 90 | 1 | 0.04 | ||
| Mandela Keita | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| El Bilal Touré | 86 | 2 | 0.09 | ||
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Vincent Sierro | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Giovanni Fabbian | 64 | 1 | 0.03 | ||
| Nesta Elphege | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Adrián Bernabé sub | 26 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| David Romero sub | 26 | 2 | 0.10 | ||
| Simone Lontani sub | 26 | 1 | 0.04 | ||
| Sascha Britschgi sub | 10 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Matija Frigan sub | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
59%Possession41%
91%Passes completed85%
19Shots9
6Shots on target2
3Corners1
13Fouls9
6Offsides2
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
2Saves4
Every shot
Inter shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakan Calhanoglu | Inter | 18' | Goal penalty | 0.78 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Inter | 70' | Off target | 0.37 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | Inter | 49' | Saved | 0.34 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | Inter | 89' | Blocked | 0.33 |
| Lautaro Martínez | Inter | 83' | Off target | 0.23 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | Inter | 76' | Blocked | 0.21 |
Inter win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 83%.
2.9–0.7goals expected; the chances made were worth 3.3–0.4
12%for 3–0, 2nd likeliest of 36 scores
71%three goals or more · happened
79%Inter to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Inter win
83%the likeliest
Exact score
3–0
12%2nd of 36
Goals in the match
3 goals
22%the likeliest
Both teams score
At least one team does not score
51%the likeliest
Goals of Inter
3 or more
56%
Winning margin
Inter by 3 or more
41%the likeliest
Clean sheet
Inter win without conceding
46%
Half-time
Inter ahead at half-time
62%the likeliest
Second half
Second half level
23%2nd of 3
Halves
More goals in the first half
31%2nd of 3
Half-time and full-time
Inter ahead at half-time, Inter win
59%the likeliest
First goal
Inter score first
79%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 1-15
40%the likeliest
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
4 scored or set up a goal
Inter
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Thuram | 63′ | 1 | 45% | – | 19% |
| Hakan Calhanoglu | 63′ | 1 | 31% | – | 18% |
| Petar Sucic | 90′ | 1 | 12% | – | 13% |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 90′ | – | 25% | 1 | 12% |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | 63′ | – | 43% | – | 14% |
| Federico Dimarco | 75′ | – | 18% | – | 39% |
| Yann Bisseck | 90′ | – | 12% | – | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez | 27′ | – | 10% | – | 3% |
| Carlos Augusto | 90′ | – | 10% | – | 8% |
| Andy Diouf | 75′ | – | 9% | – | 23% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | 27′ | – | 6% | – | 2% |
| Benjamin Pavard | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 7% |
| Luis Henrique | 15′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Aleksandar Stankovic | 27′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Josep Martínez | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Parma
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesta Elphege | 64′ | – | 17% | – | 8% |
| Giovanni Fabbian | 64′ | – | 8% | – | 4% |
| El Bilal Touré | 86′ | – | 8% | – | 6% |
| Vincent Sierro | 64′ | – | 6% | – | 6% |
| David Romero | 26′ | – | 4% | – | 1% |
| Enrico Del Prato | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Mariano Troilo | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 2% |
| Diego Carlos | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Mandela Keita | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni | 80′ | – | 2% | – | 3% |
| Matija Frigan | 4′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Simone Lontani | 26′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Emanuele Valeri | 90′ | – | 1% | – | 7% |
| Adrián Bernabé | 26′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Sascha Britschgi | 10′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| Edoardo Corvi | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check