Serie AVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- De Bruyne pen29'
- Lang32'
- Rrahmani80'
- Badiashile85'
- De Bruyne90+4'
57%Napoli win · happened
25%Draw
18%Frosinone win
Match events
3 goals · 2 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Napoli
Frosinone
FrosinoneKevin De Bruyne · GiovaneNapoli >99% → >99%
Draw <1% → <1%
Next goal Napoli 5% → 5%
Goals to come 0.1 → 0.190+4'
Benoît Badiashile85'
83'Alessio ZerbinRomano Schmid
Matteo PolitanoLeonardo Spinazzola81'
Amir Rrahmani80'
76'Matteo CichellaGabriele Bracaglia
GiovaneNoa Lang72'
Billy GilmourStanislav Lobotka71'
63'Tomas BobcekAntonio Raimondo
63'Seydou FiniFarès Ghedjemis
Lorenzo LuccaRasmus Højlund61'
Scott McTominayDavid Neres61'
Half time
45'Aleksa TerzicPatrizio Masini
Noa LangNapoli 78% → 94%
Draw 16% → 5%
Next goal Napoli 55% → 56%
Goals to come 2.0 → 1.932'
Kevin De Bruyne penalty29'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Napoli 3-4-2-1line-ups4-2-3-1 FrosinoneFrosinone 4-2-3-1line-upNapoli 3-4-2-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: K. De Bruyne ×2, N. Lang
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Meret | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Amir Rrahmani | 90 | 2 | 0.11 | ||
| Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Rafa Marín | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 90 | 2 | 0.21 | ||
| Kevin De Bruyne | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1.50 | |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | 82 | 1 | 0.03 | ||
| Noa Lang | 73 | 1 | 5 | 1.05 | |
| Stanislav Lobotka | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| David Neres | 62 | 2 | 0.26 | ||
| Rasmus Højlund | 62 | 2 | 0.35 | ||
| Lorenzo Lucca sub | 28 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Scott McTominay sub | 28 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Billy Gilmour sub | 18 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Giovane sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Matteo Politano sub | 8 | 1 | 0.05 |
Frosinone
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Palmisani | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Anthony Oyono | 90 | 1 | 0.01 | ||
| Giorgio Cittadini | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Gabriele Calvani | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Giacomo Calo | 90 | 2 | 0.12 | ||
| Giorgi Kvernadze | 90 | 4 | 0.13 | ||
| Romano Schmid | 84 | 1 | 0.03 | ||
| Gabriele Bracaglia | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Farès Ghedjemis | 64 | 1 | 0.03 | ||
| Antonio Raimondo | 64 | 4 | 0.36 | ||
| Patrizio Masini | 47 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Aleksa Terzic sub | 43 | 1 | 0.00 | ||
| Tomás Bobcek sub | 26 | 3 | 0.28 | ||
| Seydou Fini sub | 26 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Matteo Cichella sub | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Alessio Zerbin sub | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
51%Possession49%
80%Passes completed84%
19Shots17
8Shots on target1
6Corners4
8Fouls12
1Offsides2
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
1Saves5
Every shot
Napoli shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin De Bruyne | Napoli | 29' | Goal penalty | 0.78 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | Napoli | 94' | Goal | 0.72 |
| Noa Lang | Napoli | 1' | Blocked | 0.42 |
| Noa Lang | Napoli | 32' | Goal | 0.41 |
| Rasmus Højlund | Napoli | 3' | Woodwork | 0.22 |
| David Neres | Napoli | 51' | Off target | 0.21 |
Napoli win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 57%.
1.8–1.0goals expected; the chances made were worth 3.6–1.0
6%for 3–0, 6th likeliest of 36 scores
53%three goals or more · happened
62%Napoli to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Napoli win
57%the likeliest
Exact score
3–0
6%6th of 36
Goals in the match
3 goals
23%2nd of 7
Both teams score
At least one team does not score
45%2nd of 2
Goals of Napoli
3 or more
27%
Winning margin
Napoli by 3 or more
15%4th of 7
Clean sheet
Napoli win without conceding
31%
Half-time
Napoli ahead at half-time
42%the likeliest
Second half
Napoli win the second half
46%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the first half
30%2nd of 3
Half-time and full-time
Napoli ahead at half-time, Napoli win
36%the likeliest
First goal
Napoli score first
62%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 16-30
22%2nd of 6
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
3 scored or set up a goal
Napoli
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin De Bruyne | 90′ | 2 | 28% | – | 22% |
| Noa Lang | 73′ | 1 | 12% | – | 16% |
| Giovane | 17′ | – | 2% | 1 | 2% |
| Rasmus Højlund | 62′ | – | 38% | – | 12% |
| David Neres | 62′ | – | 24% | – | 19% |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 9% |
| Amir Rrahmani | 90′ | – | 8% | – | 5% |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | 82′ | – | 7% | – | 12% |
| Scott McTominay | 28′ | – | 7% | – | 2% |
| Stanislav Lobotka | 72′ | – | 6% | – | 6% |
| Rafa Marín | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 3% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 28′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Matteo Politano | 8′ | – | 2% | – | 3% |
| Billy Gilmour | 18′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Alex Meret | 90′ | – | <1% | – | 2% |
Frosinone
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Raimondo | 64′ | – | 25% | – | 5% |
| Giorgi Kvernadze | 90′ | – | 14% | – | 10% |
| Giacomo Calo | 90′ | – | 8% | – | 7% |
| Romano Schmid | 84′ | – | 8% | – | 12% |
| Farès Ghedjemis | 64′ | – | 8% | – | 5% |
| Patrizio Masini | 47′ | – | 5% | – | 6% |
| Gabriele Bracaglia | 77′ | – | 5% | – | 4% |
| Anthony Oyono | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 5% |
| Gabriele Calvani | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Giorgio Cittadini | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Seydou Fini | 26′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Tomás Bobcek | 26′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Matteo Cichella | 13′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Alessio Zerbin | 6′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
| Aleksa Terzic | 43′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Lorenzo Palmisani | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check