La LigaVesta · published Sat 10 OctRayo VallecanoRayo
LWLWD13th · 8 pts
14:00
Kick-off · Sat 10 Oct
Athletic ClubAthletic
10th · 8 ptsLWWDD
33%Rayo Vallecano win
30%Draw
37%Athletic Club win
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3line-ups4-2-3-1 Athletic Club
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Stats
Match stats
55%Possession45%
85%Passes completed81%
1Shots1
1Shots on target0
1Corners2
2Fouls0
2Offsides0
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
0Saves1
Too close to call.
Out of 100: Rayo Vallecano 33, draw 30, Athletic Club 37. No result stands out.Every forecast ›1.2–1.3goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 15%
45%three goals or more
54%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Rayo Vallecano score first44%Rayo win 64%
Athletic Club score first47%Athletic win 66%
Rayo Vallecano score first, in the first 15 minutes13%Rayo win 59%
Rayo Vallecano ahead at half-time27%Rayo win 70%
Level at half-time43%Rayo win 28%
Numbers to expectRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Shots11.713.1
Shots on target4.44.1
Corners4.85.0
Fouls11.412.5
Yellow cards2.12.1
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandRayo Vallecano first, Athletic Club in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals8%not checked on its own yet
1 goal19%not checked on its own yet
2 goals27%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals14%not checked on its own yet
5 goals6%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals4%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 30%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Rayo Vallecano by 3 or more4%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano by 29%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano by 120%not checked on its own yet
Draw30%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club by 121%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club by 211%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club by 3 or more5%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Athletic Club keep a clean sheet 28%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet26%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club keep a clean sheet28%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano win without conceding18%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club win without conceding20%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all8%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners71%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners50%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners30%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Rayo Vallecano: 5 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 5 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Rayo Vallecano42%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Athletic Club47%not checked on its own yet
Shots
23 or more shots 63%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
23 or more shots63%not checked on its own yet
25 or more shots50%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Rayo Vallecano: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 13 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Rayo Vallecano38%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Athletic Club56%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
22 or more fouls 68%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more fouls68%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls52%not checked on its own yet
26 or more fouls37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Rayo Vallecano: 11 or more58%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 13 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Rayo Vallecano37%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Athletic Club55%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
081063119159412686213232141115
Rayo Vallecano's goals down the side, Athletic Club's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Athletic Club: 1 or more 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half67%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half76%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano ahead at half-time27%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time45%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time28%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano win the second half29%not checked on its own yet
Second half level39%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club win the second half32%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half43%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves27%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Rayo Vallecano ahead at half-time, Rayo Vallecano win18%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Rayo Vallecano win13%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time, Rayo Vallecano win2%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw18%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Rayo Vallecano ahead at half-time, Athletic Club win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Athletic Club win14%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time, Athletic Club win21%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Athletic Club score first 47%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Rayo Vallecano score first45%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club score first47%not checked on its own yet
No goals8%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3021%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-758%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards92%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards61%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards25%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Rayo Vallecano: 2 or more62%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 2 or more63%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Rayo Vallecano39%not checked on its own yet
As many each20%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Athletic Club41%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 84%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target84%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target60%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Rayo Vallecano: 4 or more63%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 4 or more58%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Rayo Vallecano47%not checked on its own yet
As many each13%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Athletic Club40%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Sergio Camello 28%
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | 74 | 28% | 4% | 8% | 1.6 |
| Jorge De Frutos | 76 | 20% | 2% | 8% | 1.2 |
| Álvaro García | 82 | 15% | 1% | 17% | 1.4 |
| Pathé Ciss | 89 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Pedro Díaz | 79 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 1.4 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | 86 | 5% | 0% | 10% | 0.6 |
| Florian Lejeune | 90 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Iván Balliu | 80 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Unai López | 79 | 4% | 0% | 12% | 0.8 |
| Randy Nteka bench | 9 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Alemão bench | 10 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.2 |
| Mujaid Sadick | 77 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Isi Palazón bench | 13 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Fran Pérez bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Carlos Martín bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Óscar Valentín bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd bench | 15 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Emil Audero | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Cárdenas bench | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñaki Williams | 78 | 25% | 4% | 14% | 1.9 |
| Roberto Navarro | 72 | 24% | 3% | 9% | 1.2 |
| Alex Berenguer | 81 | 13% | 1% | 14% | 1.5 |
| Peio Canales | 90 | 12% | 1% | 12% | 1.3 |
| Beñat Gerenabarrena | 89 | 9% | 0% | 8% | 0.8 |
| Aitor Paredes | 89 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Gorka Guruzeta bench | 13 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Maroan Sannadi bench | 11 | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 71 | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Jesús Areso | 83 | 2% | 0% | 7% | 0.3 |
| Alejandro Rego bench | 12 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Mikel Jauregizar bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Dani Vivian bench | 16 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Hugo Rincón bench | 12 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Johaneko Louis Jean bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Unai Simón | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Álex Padilla bench | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Not logged yet: worked out now from the squads. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check