Elche v Celta Vigo
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Elche 38, draw 27, Celta Vigo 35. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Elche win | Draw | Celta Vigo win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 36% | 27% | 36% | 44% |
| Celta Vigo | ||||
| Top 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Bottom 3 | 12% | 17% | 13% | 8% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Elche goals down, Celta Vigo goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Niño | 32% | 6% | 1.7 |
| Abiel Osorio bench | 16% | 4% | 1.1 |
| Lucas Cepeda bench | 10% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Facundo Buonanotte | 10% | 5% | 0.9 |
| German Valera | 8% | 14% | 0.7 |
| Ezequiel Ponce bench | 7% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Gonzalo Villar | 6% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Javier Morcillo | 6% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Thomas Lemar bench | 6% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Tete Morente | 4% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Roy Revivo | 4% | 10% | 0.3 |
| Victor Chust | 3% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Buba Sangaré | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Ali Houary bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Martim Neto bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Federico Redondo | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Pedro Bigas bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Marc Aguado bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| David Affengruber bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Rubén Sánchez bench | <1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Matías Dituro | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrán Jutglà | 19% | 6% | 1.4 |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 18% | 10% | 1.3 |
| Williot Swedberg | 14% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Iago Aspas bench | 10% | 6% | 0.7 |
| Hugo Álvarez bench | 8% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Pablo Durán bench | 8% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Miguel Román | 7% | 9% | 0.7 |
| Ilaix Moriba | 6% | 7% | 0.6 |
| Andrés Antañón bench | 5% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Javier Rueda | 4% | 11% | 0.4 |
| Borja Iglesias bench | 4% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Sergio Carreira | 4% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Marcos Alonso | 3% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui bench | 3% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Carl Starfelt bench | 2% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Sebastián Cáceres bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Couhaib Driouech bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Yoel Lago | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Aleix Febas bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Álvaro Núñez | <1% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Javi Galán bench | <1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Abdoulaye Faye bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Javier Rodríguez bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Ionut Radu | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



