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Elche v Celta Vigo

38%Elche
27%Draw
35%Celta Vigo

Too close to call.

Tested

Out of 100: Elche 38, draw 27, Celta Vigo 35. No result stands out.

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals51%
Both teams score56%
Expected goals1.4 v 1.3
Most likely score1-113% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Elche6-3-15-2-3Celta Vigo

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots12.510.7
Shots on target4.43.9
Corners4.93.9
Fouls13.712.3
Yellow cards2.22.1

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Elche v Celta Vigo changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowElche winDrawCelta Vigo win
Elche
Bottom 336%27%36%44%
Celta Vigo
Top 4<1%<1%<1%1%
Bottom 312%17%13%8%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals75%
3 or more goals51%
4 or more goals30%
5 or more goals14%

Exactly

0 goals6%
1 goal19%
2 goals24%
3 goals21%
4 goals16%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%

Goals by team

Tested
Elche: 1 or more76%
Elche: 2 or more41%
Elche: 3 or more17%
Celta Vigo: 1 or more74%
Celta Vigo: 2 or more39%
Celta Vigo: 3 or more15%
Both teams score56%
At least one team does not score44%

Winning margin

Tested
Elche by 3 or more6%
Elche by 211%
Elche by 121%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo by 120%
Celta Vigo by 210%
Celta Vigo by 3 or more5%

Result combinations

Tested
Elche win or draw65%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Celta Vigo win or draw62%

Clean sheets

Tested
Elche keep a clean sheet26%
Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet24%
Elche win without conceding20%
Celta Vigo win without conceding18%
No goals at all6%

The first goal

Model estimate
Elche score first48%
Celta Vigo score first46%
No goals6%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1532%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Elche goals down, Celta Vigo goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
06.09.15.52.50.80.2
19.512.57.83.51.20.3
26.08.26.62.50.80.2
32.93.92.61.40.40.1
41.01.40.90.40.2·
50.30.40.30.1··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half79%
Elche ahead at half-time30%
Level at half-time42%
Celta Vigo ahead at half-time29%
Elche win the second half33%
Second half level36%
Celta Vigo win the second half31%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves25%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Elche ahead at half-time, Elche win22%
Level at half-time, Elche win14%
Celta Vigo ahead at half-time, Elche win3%
Elche ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Celta Vigo ahead at half-time, draw6%
Elche ahead at half-time, Celta Vigo win2%
Level at half-time, Celta Vigo win12%
Celta Vigo ahead at half-time, Celta Vigo win21%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
ElcheCelta Vigo

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Elche
Elche: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Fernando Niño6732%6%6%36%1.7
Abiel Osorio bench3316%1%4%19%1.1
Lucas Cepeda bench3310%<1%6%15%1.0
Facundo Buonanotte4010%<1%5%14%0.9
German Valera818%<1%14%21%0.7
Ezequiel Ponce bench207%<1%3%10%0.5
Gonzalo Villar816%<1%8%14%0.7
Javier Morcillo596%<1%5%11%0.7
Thomas Lemar bench336%<1%4%9%0.5
Tete Morente594%<1%8%12%0.7
Roy Revivo544%<1%10%13%0.3
Victor Chust903%<1%2%6%0.4
Buba Sangaré733%<1%2%5%0.3
Ali Houary bench102%<1%1%3%0.2
Martim Neto bench152%<1%3%5%0.2
Federico Redondo372%<1%3%5%0.2
Pedro Bigas bench362%<1%3%5%0.2
Marc Aguado bench221%<1%1%2%0.1
David Affengruber bench18<1%<1%<1%2%0.1
Rubén Sánchez bench18<1%<1%2%2%0.2
Matías Dituro90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Ferrán Jutglà6319%2%6%24%1.4
Hugo Gonzalez5018%2%10%26%1.3
Williot Swedberg4414%1%7%20%0.8
Iago Aspas bench2810%<1%6%15%0.7
Hugo Álvarez bench398%<1%7%14%0.5
Pablo Durán bench288%<1%3%11%0.6
Miguel Román807%<1%9%15%0.7
Ilaix Moriba796%<1%7%12%0.6
Andrés Antañón bench135%<1%1%6%0.3
Javier Rueda574%<1%11%15%0.4
Borja Iglesias bench84%<1%<1%5%0.2
Sergio Carreira664%<1%3%7%0.4
Marcos Alonso543%<1%2%5%0.4
Jones El Abdellaoui bench143%<1%<1%3%0.2
Carl Starfelt bench362%<1%<1%3%0.2
Sebastián Cáceres bench362%<1%2%3%0.2
Couhaib Driouech bench111%<1%1%3%0.2
Yoel Lago801%<1%2%3%0.2
Aleix Febas bench181%<1%1%2%0.1
Álvaro Núñez53<1%<1%4%5%0.2
Javi Galán bench20<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Abdoulaye Faye bench10<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Javier Rodríguez bench10<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Ionut Radu90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0