BundesligaVesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Eggestein10'
- Suzuki49'
- Ginter57'
- Suzuki64'
- Goto85'
- Karaman30'
- Hee-Chan87'
57%Freiburg win · happened
24%Draw
19%Schalke 04 win
Match events
3 goals · 4 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Freiburg
Schalke 04
Schalke 0487'Hwang Hee-Chan
Keisuke Goto · Vincenzo GrifoFreiburg 11% → 79%
Draw 72% → 19%
Next goal Freiburg 12% → 12%
Goals to come 0.4 → 0.485'
Vincenzo GrifoDerry Scherhant83'
Lukas KüblerPhilipp Treu83'
79'Timo BeckerMaximilian Wöber
79'Hwang Hee-ChanMoussa Sylla
79'Adil AouchicheAdrian Gantenbein
69'Edin DzekoJunior Adamu
69'Ron SchallenbergSatoshi Tanaka
Keisuke GotoYannick Engelhardt69'
Cyriaque IriéNiklas Beste69'
Lucas HölerIgor Matanovic65'
Yuito SuzukiFreiburg 37% → 19%
Draw 45% → 47%
Next goal Freiburg 42% → 25%
Goals to come 1.1 → 1.064'
Matthias Ginter57'
Yuito Suzuki49'
Half time
30'Kenan Karaman · Adrian GantenbeinSchalke 04 7% → 19%
Draw 17% → 29%
Next goal Schalke 04 35% → 31%
Goals to come 2.2 → 2.2
Maximilian EggesteinFreiburg 55% → 77%
Draw 25% → 15%
Next goal Freiburg 61% → 58%
Goals to come 2.8 → 2.810'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Freiburg 4-2-3-1line-ups3-4-2-1 Schalke 04Schalke 04 3-4-2-1line-upFreiburg 4-2-3-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: M. Eggestein, K. Karaman, K. Goto
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mio Backhaus | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Matthias Ginter | 90 | 2 | 0.03 | ||
| Philipp Lienhart | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jordy Makengo | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Maximilian Eggestein | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0.56 | |
| Philipp Treu | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Derry Scherhant | 86 | 1 | 0.13 | ||
| Yannick Engelhardt | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jan-Niklas Beste | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Igor Matanovic | 68 | 2 | 0.40 | ||
| Yuito Suzuki | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Lucas Höler sub | 22 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Keisuke Goto sub | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Cyriaque Irié sub | 18 | 1 | 0.10 | ||
| Lukas Kübler sub | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Vincenzo Grifo sub | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 |
Schalke 04
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loris Karius | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Nikola Katic | 90 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Hasan Kuruçay | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Robin Gosens | 90 | 1 | 0.15 | ||
| Soufiane El-Faouzi | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Kenan Karaman | 90 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | |
| Maximilian Wöber | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Adrian Gantenbein | 82 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | |
| Moussa Sylla | 82 | 1 | 0.22 | ||
| Satoshi Tanaka | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Junior Adamu | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Ron Schallenberg sub | 18 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Edin Dzeko sub | 18 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Timo Becker sub | 8 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Adil Aouchiche sub | 8 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Hee-Chan Hwang sub | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
51%Possession49%
78%Passes completed78%
10Shots5
4Shots on target1
7Corners2
11Fouls13
0Offsides5
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0
0Saves3
Every shot
Freiburg shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Eggestein | Freiburg | 10' | Goal from a corner | 0.54 |
| Igor Matanovic | Freiburg | 18' | Blocked | 0.39 |
| Moussa Sylla | Schalke 04 | 59' | Blocked | 0.22 |
| Keisuke Goto | Freiburg | 85' | Goal | 0.17 |
| Robin Gosens | Schalke 04 | 55' | Off target | 0.15 |
| Derry Scherhant | Freiburg | 8' | Blocked | 0.13 |
Freiburg win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 57%.
2.0–1.1goals expected; the chances made were worth 1.4–0.5
11%for 2–1, 2nd likeliest of 36 scores
60%three goals or more · happened
61%Freiburg to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Freiburg win
57%the likeliest
Exact score
2–1
11%2nd of 36
Goals in the match
3 goals
23%2nd of 7
Both teams score
Both teams score
60%the likeliest
Goals of Freiburg
2 or more
59%
Goals of Schalke 04
1 or more
68%
Winning margin
Freiburg by 1
23%2nd of 7
Half-time
Level at half-time
38%2nd of 3
Second half
Freiburg win the second half
46%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the first half
30%2nd of 3
Half-time and full-time
Level at half-time, Freiburg win
18%2nd of 9
First goal
Freiburg score first
61%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 1-15
35%the likeliest
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
4 scored or set up a goal
Freiburg
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Eggestein | 90′ | 1 | 15% | – | 6% |
| Keisuke Goto | 18′ | 1 | 1% | – | 1% |
| Vincenzo Grifo | 4′ | – | 3% | 1 | 3% |
| Igor Matanovic | 68′ | – | 45% | – | 13% |
| Yuito Suzuki | 67′ | – | 26% | – | 14% |
| Derry Scherhant | 86′ | – | 20% | – | 18% |
| Yannick Engelhardt | 72′ | – | 13% | – | 7% |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | 72′ | – | 12% | – | 18% |
| Matthias Ginter | 90′ | – | 11% | – | 13% |
| Philipp Lienhart | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 3% |
| Philipp Treu | 86′ | – | 4% | – | 8% |
| Jordy Makengo | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 14% |
| Cyriaque Irié | 18′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Lukas Kübler | 4′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Lucas Höler | 22′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Mio Backhaus | 90′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
Schalke 04
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenan Karaman | 90′ | 1 | 10% | – | 13% |
| Moussa Sylla | 82′ | – | 24% | – | 10% |
| Junior Adamu | 72′ | – | 17% | – | 12% |
| Soufiane El-Faouzi | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 9% |
| Maximilian Wöber | 82′ | – | 9% | – | 5% |
| Satoshi Tanaka | 72′ | – | 9% | – | 7% |
| Robin Gosens | 90′ | – | 8% | – | 4% |
| Nikola Katic | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 3% |
| Hasan Kuruçay | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 3% |
| Edin Dzeko | 18′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Adil Aouchiche | 8′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Ron Schallenberg | 18′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Timo Becker | 8′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Loris Karius | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check