Lab
BundesligaVesta · published Sat 10 Oct
FC CologneFC Cologne
LWLDL10th · 7 pts
2–1
Full time
Borussia M.GladbachGladbach
18th · 0 ptsWLLLL
  • Bulter13'
  • Jóhannesson26'
  • El Mala67'
  • Leszczynski24'
  • Scally39'
  • Uno81'
  • Machino90+6'
52%FC Cologne win · happened
24%Draw
24%Borussia M.Gladbach win

Match events

3 goals · 4 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
FC CologneBorussia M.Gladbach
90+6'Shuto Machino
Luca WaldschmidtLinton Maina90+2'
Imad RondicMikey Moore85'
81'Zento Uno
80'Fabio ChiarodiaJan Leszczynski
80'Fritz FleckDaiki Hashioka
Joel SchmiedLuka Lochoshvili78'
Jan ThielmannSaid El Mala78'
68'Zento UnoFlorian Neuhaus
Said El Mala · Linton MainaFC Cologne 34% → 76% Draw 45% → 20% Next goal FC Cologne 40% → 38% Goals to come 1.1 → 1.167'
64'Wael MohyaRobin Hack
64'Shuto MachinoIsac Lidberg
Half time
Tom KraussEllyes Skhiri45'
39'Joe ScallyGladbach 9% → 24% Draw 20% → 30% Next goal Gladbach 40% → 36% Goals to come 2.3 → 2.3
Ísak JóhannessonFC Cologne 48% → 71% Draw 28% → 18% Next goal FC Cologne 56% → 53% Goals to come 2.8 → 2.726'
24'Jan Leszczynski
Marius Bulter13'

Line-ups

from the official team sheets
FC Cologne 4-1-2-1-2line-ups3-4-2-1 Borussia M.Gladbach
Borussia M.Gladbach 3-4-2-1line-up
FC Cologne 4-1-2-1-2line-up
goal own goal assist yellow card red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)

Who played

goals: Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, J. Scally, S. El Mala

FC Cologne

PlayerMinGAShxG
Marvin Schwäbe9000.00
Sebastian Sebulonsen9030.10
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey9020.18
Borna Sosa9010.05
Linton Maina90120.00
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson90110.03
Mikey Moore9010.03
Marius Bülter9000.00
Luka Lochoshvili8310.06
Said El Mala83181.00
Ellyes Skhiri5100.00
Tom Krauß sub3900.00
Joël Schmied sub700.00
Jan Thielmann sub700.00
Imad Rondic sub100.00
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt sub110.07

Borussia M.Gladbach

PlayerMinGAShxG
Moritz Nicolas9000.00
Kevin Diks9000.00
Joe Scally90120.26
Lukas Ullrich9020.05
Philipp Sander9030.11
Hugo Bolin9030.33
Jan Leszczynski8500.00
Daiki Hashioka8500.00
Florian Neuhaus7310.03
Robin Hack6900.00
Isac Lidberg6910.12
Wael Mohya sub2120.08
Shuto Machino sub2110.08
Zento Uno sub1710.05
Fabio Chiarodia sub500.00
Fritz Fleck sub500.00

Stats

Match stats

48%Possession52%
80%Passes completed80%
20Shots16
7Shots on target7
6Corners6
8Fouls17
1Offsides1
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
6Saves5

Every shot

FC Cologne shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chance
Every shot of FC Cologne 2-1 Borussia M.Gladbach2' Florian Neuhaus, expected goals 0.033' Philipp Sander, expected goals 0.016' Luka Lochoshvili, expected goals 0.068' Philipp Sander, expected goals 0.0813' Sebastian Sebulonsen, expected goals 0.0515' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.1116' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.0330' Hugo Bolin, expected goals 0.0631' Mikey Moore, expected goals 0.0333' Joe Scally, expected goals 0.0134' Isac Lidberg, expected goals 0.1238' Philipp Sander, expected goals 0.0242' Linton Maina, expected goals 0.0042' Sebastian Sebulonsen, expected goals 0.0444' Hugo Bolin, expected goals 0.2345' Borna Sosa, expected goals 0.0550' Linton Maina, expected goals 0.0050' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.0852' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.0254' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.0655' Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, expected goals 0.0055' Sebastian Sebulonsen, expected goals 0.0157' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.3559' Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, expected goals 0.1873' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.3273' Wael Mohya, expected goals 0.0881' Lukas Ullrich, expected goals 0.0383' Hugo Bolin, expected goals 0.0488' Zento Uno, expected goals 0.0590' Lukas Ullrich, expected goals 0.0292' Wael Mohya, expected goals 0.0092' Shuto Machino, expected goals 0.0896' Gian-Luca Waldschmidt, expected goals 0.0726' Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, expected goals 0.0339' Joe Scally, expected goals 0.2567' Said El Mala, expected goals 0.03

The match in expected goals

chance quality added up minute by minute
Expected goals minute by minute, FC Cologne 2-1 Borussia M.Gladbach00.511.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'1.521.1226' goal Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson39' goal Joe Scally67' goal Said El Mala

The best chances

PlayerTeamMinuteWhatxG
Said El MalaFC Cologne57'Blocked0.35
Said El MalaFC Cologne73'Off target0.32
Joe ScallyBorussia M.Gladbach39'Goal0.25
Hugo BolinBorussia M.Gladbach44'Blocked0.23
Jahmai Simpson-PuseyFC Cologne59'Saved from a corner0.18
Isac LidbergBorussia M.Gladbach34'Off target0.12

Vesta's forecast, how it went

published before kick-offWhat came true ›

FC Cologne win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 52%.

2.1–1.4goals expected; the chances made were worth 1.5–1.1
10%for 2–1, 2nd likeliest of 36 scores
69%three goals or more · happened
58%FC Cologne to score first · happened

Players to watch, how it went

chance to score before kick-offEvery player ›
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›

What came true

13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result FC Cologne win 52%the likeliest
Exact score 2–1 10%2nd of 36
Goals in the match 3 goals 22%the likeliest
Both teams score Both teams score 70%the likeliest
Goals of FC Cologne 2 or more 63%
Goals of Borussia M.Gladbach 1 or more 78%
Winning margin FC Cologne by 1 22%2nd of 7
Half-time Level at half-time 35%2nd of 3
Second half FC Cologne win the second half 44%the likeliest
Halves More goals in the first half 30%2nd of 3
Half-time and full-time Level at half-time, FC Cologne win 16%2nd of 9
First goal FC Cologne score first 58%the likeliest
When the first goal came Minutes 16-30 24%2nd of 6

Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›

Players

Every player, how it went

4 scored or set up a goal

FC Cologne

PlayerPlayedGoalsTo scoreAssistsTo assist
Said El Mala83′144%–20%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson90′111%–17%
Linton Maina90′–18%117%
Marius Bülter90′–30%–20%
Mikey Moore90′–20%–13%
Luka Lochoshvili83′–13%–6%
Ellyes Skhiri51′–10%–10%
Borna Sosa90′–7%–9%
Sebastian Sebulonsen90′–6%–9%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey90′–4%–3%
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt1′–4%–3%
Jan Thielmann7′–2%–1%
Joël Schmied7′–<1%–<1%
Imad Rondic1′–<1%–<1%
Marvin Schwäbe90′–<1%–1%

Borussia M.Gladbach

PlayerPlayedGoalsTo scoreAssistsTo assist
Joe Scally90′17%–8%
Isac Lidberg69′–32%–12%
Hugo Bolin90′–20%–12%
Kevin Diks90′–14%–3%
Robin Hack69′–13%–12%
Florian Neuhaus73′–11%–10%
Philipp Sander90′–7%–6%
Jan Leszczynski85′–6%–9%
Daiki Hashioka85′–5%–6%
Shuto Machino21′–3%–1%
Lukas Ullrich90′–3%–10%
Wael Mohya21′–2%–1%
Fabio Chiarodia5′–<1%–<1%
Moritz Nicolas90′–<1%–1%
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check