BundesligaVesta · published Mon 12 OctEintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt
DLWDL14th · 5 pts
20:30
Kick-off · Fri 16 Oct
FC CologneFC Cologne
10th · 7 ptsWLDLW
46%Eintracht Frankfurt win
24%Draw
30%FC Cologne win
Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Eintracht Frankfurt 3-5-2likely elevens4-2-2-2 FC Cologne
FC Cologne 4-2-2-2likely elevenEintracht Frankfurt 3-5-2likely elevenChance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Cologne
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Cologne
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Eintracht Frankfurt, just.
Eintracht Frankfurt win about 46 times in 100. The other 54: a draw (24) or a FC Cologne win (30).Every forecast ›2.0–1.6goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 10%
70%three goals or more
72%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Eintracht Frankfurt score first54%Frankfurt win 67%
FC Cologne score first43%FC Cologne win 53%
Eintracht Frankfurt score first, in the first 15 minutes20%Frankfurt win 66%
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time38%Frankfurt win 75%
Level at half-time35%Frankfurt win 39%
Numbers to expectEintracht FrankfurtFC Cologne
Shots15.014.0
Shots on target5.74.8
Corners5.74.6
Fouls9.69.3
Yellow cards1.82.0
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandEintracht Frankfurt first, FC Cologne in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 89%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals3%not checked on its own yet
1 goal9%not checked on its own yet
2 goals19%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals20%not checked on its own yet
5 goals14%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals14%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 24%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3 or more11%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt by 214%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt by 120%not checked on its own yet
Draw24%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne by 116%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne by 29%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne by 3 or more5%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet 18%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet18%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne keep a clean sheet12%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt win without conceding16%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne win without conceding9%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all3%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners76%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners55%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Eintracht Frankfurt: 6 or more48%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne: 5 or more47%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Eintracht Frankfurt56%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for FC Cologne33%not checked on its own yet
Shots
27 or more shots 63%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
27 or more shots63%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots51%not checked on its own yet
31 or more shots40%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Eintracht Frankfurt: 15 or more51%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne: 14 or more51%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Eintracht Frankfurt53%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for FC Cologne41%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
17 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
17 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
19 or more fouls52%not checked on its own yet
21 or more fouls35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Eintracht Frankfurt: 10 or more49%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne: 9 or more58%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Eintracht Frankfurt49%not checked on its own yet
As many each9%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for FC Cologne42%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0343211510741259841336531423215111
Eintracht Frankfurt's goals down the side, FC Cologne's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Eintracht Frankfurt: 1 or more 88%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Both teams score72%not checked on its own yet
At least one team does not score28%not checked on its own yet
Halves
A goal in the second half 87%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half80%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half87%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time37%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time36%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne ahead at half-time27%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt win the second half39%not checked on its own yet
Second half level32%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne win the second half29%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half48%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves22%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time, Eintracht Frankfurt win28%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Eintracht Frankfurt win14%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne ahead at half-time, Eintracht Frankfurt win4%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw12%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time, FC Cologne win3%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, FC Cologne win10%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne ahead at half-time, FC Cologne win17%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Eintracht Frankfurt score first 54%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Eintracht Frankfurt score first54%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne score first43%not checked on its own yet
No goals3%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1539%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3024%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-755%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+3%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 89%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards89%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards53%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards19%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Eintracht Frankfurt: 2 or more55%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne: 2 or more58%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Eintracht Frankfurt37%not checked on its own yet
As many each21%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for FC Cologne42%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
9 or more shots on target 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
9 or more shots on target71%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target48%not checked on its own yet
13 or more shots on target27%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Eintracht Frankfurt: 6 or more49%not checked on its own yet
FC Cologne: 5 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Eintracht Frankfurt53%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for FC Cologne35%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Jonathan Burkardt 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Burkardt | 73 | 44% | 11% | 9% | 1.9 |
| Younes Ebnoutalib | 50 | 28% | 4% | 10% | 1.4 |
| Can Uzun | 67 | 24% | 3% | 15% | 1.7 |
| Ansgar Knauff | 52 | 11% | 1% | 9% | 0.8 |
| Ritsu Doan | 62 | 10% | 1% | 16% | 1.0 |
| Raphael Onyedika | 74 | 7% | 0% | 7% | 0.6 |
| Noel Aséko Nkili | 39 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Farès Chaïbi bench | 32 | 5% | 0% | 10% | 0.6 |
| Robin Koch | 54 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab bench | 19 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Elias Baum | 59 | 3% | 0% | 9% | 0.4 |
| Nnamdi Collins bench | 49 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Lilian Brassier | 70 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Love Arrhov bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Keita Kosugi bench | 35 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Oscar Højlund bench | 17 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Mario Götze bench | 18 | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0.1 |
| Jean Négoce bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Malik Pimpong bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Nathaniel Brown bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jeremiaha Maluze bench | 15 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Timothy Chandler bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ellyes Skhiri bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rasmus Kristensen bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aurèle Amenda bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Michael Zetterer bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Atubolu | 77 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said El Mala | 65 | 32% | 6% | 11% | 2.1 |
| Marius Bülter | 62 | 19% | 2% | 13% | 1.3 |
| Mikey Moore | 63 | 11% | 1% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Ragnar Ache bench | 21 | 10% | 1% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Thijs Dallinga bench | 19 | 9% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Linton Maina | 66 | 9% | 0% | 13% | 0.9 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt bench | 13 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 61 | 6% | 0% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Luka Lochoshvili | 68 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Jan Thielmann bench | 22 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Tom Krauß | 66 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes bench | 37 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 0.2 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen | 64 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Borna Sosa | 51 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | 77 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Ellyes Skhiri bench | 34 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Imad Rondic bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Jakub Kaminski bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Reigan Heskey bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Paul Okon-Engstler bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Felipe Chávez bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Eric Martel bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Joël Schmied bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Gideon Mensah bench | 32 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Cenk Özkacar bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kristoffer Lund bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Marvin Schwäbe | 83 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check