Ligue 1Vesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Lepaul15'
- Rouault50'
- Thomasson53'
- Thomasson59'
- Lepaul59'
- Cissé90'
- Dia90+2', 90+4'
- Archer25'
53%Rennes win · happened
25%Draw
22%Auxerre win
Match events
5 goals · 4 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Rennes
Auxerre
AuxerreBoulaye Dia · Bryan ReynoldsRennes >99% → >99%
Draw <1% → <1%
Next goal Rennes 6% → 5%
Goals to come 0.1 → 0.190+4'
Boulaye Dia · Ludovic BlasRennes 93% → >99%
Draw 7% → <1%
Next goal Rennes 9% → 9%
Goals to come 0.2 → 0.290+2'
Djaoui Cissé90'
87'Youssef KhouddaRomain Faivre
Przemyslaw FrankowskiMahamadou Nagida85'
82'Aristide ZossouArthur Piedfort
Ludovic BlasIssa Soumaré77'
Boulaye DiaEsteban Lepaul77'
77'Pierre EkwahNaouirou Ahamada
77'Remy Labeau LascaryDanny Namaso
76'Elikya LegrosClément Akpa
Eliezer MayendaMousa Al-Tamari67'
Djaoui CisséAdrien Thomasson67'
Esteban Lepaul59'
Adrien Thomasson59'
Adrien Thomasson · Bryan ReynoldsRennes 41% → 76%
Draw 38% → 19%
Next goal Rennes 47% → 46%
Goals to come 1.4 → 1.453'
Anthony Rouault50'
Half time
25'Cameron Archer · Mamadou DiopAuxerre 8% → 22%
Draw 18% → 28%
Next goal Auxerre 38% → 34%
Goals to come 2.4 → 2.4
Esteban Lepaul · Charlie CresswellRennes 50% → 74%
Draw 27% → 17%
Next goal Rennes 57% → 55%
Goals to come 2.7 → 2.615'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Rennes 4-3-3line-ups3-4-2-1 AuxerreAuxerre 3-4-2-1line-upRennes 4-3-3line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: C. Archer, E. Lepaul, A. Thomasson, B. Dia ×2
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Samba | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Bryan Reynolds | 90 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Charlie Cresswell | 90 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | |
| Anthony Rouault | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Valentin Rongier | 90 | 2 | 0.04 | ||
| Mahdi Camara | 90 | 1 | 0.34 | ||
| Mahamadou Nagida | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Esteban Lepaul | 79 | 1 | 5 | 0.51 | |
| Issa Soumaré | 79 | 5 | 0.48 | ||
| Adrien Thomasson | 69 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Mousa Al Tamari | 69 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Eliezer Mayenda sub | 21 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Djaoui Cissé sub | 21 | 2 | 0.02 | ||
| Ludovic Blas sub | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | |
| Boulaye Dia sub | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0.77 | |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski sub | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Diop | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Axel Tuanzebe | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Lamine Sy | 90 | 1 | 0.10 | ||
| Fredrik Oppegård | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Kévin Danois | 90 | 1 | 0.11 | ||
| Cameron Archer | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | |
| Romain Faivre | 89 | 3 | 0.15 | ||
| Arthur Piedfort | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Naouirou Ahamada | 79 | 2 | 0.04 | ||
| Danny Namaso | 79 | 1 | 0.03 | ||
| Clément Akpa | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Elikya Legros sub | 12 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Pierre Ekwah sub | 11 | 1 | 0.00 | ||
| Remy Labeau Lascary sub | 11 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Aristide Zossou sub | 6 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Youssef Khoudda sub | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
58%Possession42%
86%Passes completed78%
21Shots12
11Shots on target5
12Corners5
12Fouls11
2Offsides4
4Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
4Saves7
Every shot
Rennes shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boulaye Dia | Rennes | 92' | Goal | 0.43 |
| Mahdi Camara | Rennes | 84' | Saved | 0.34 |
| Boulaye Dia | Rennes | 94' | Goal | 0.33 |
| Issa Soumaré | Rennes | 57' | Blocked | 0.26 |
| Adrien Thomasson | Rennes | 53' | Goal from a corner | 0.22 |
| Esteban Lepaul | Rennes | 56' | Off target from a corner | 0.17 |
Rennes win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 53%.
1.9–1.2goals expected; the chances made were worth 2.5–0.6
3%for 4–1, 13th likeliest of 36 scores
60%three goals or more · happened
59%Rennes to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Rennes win
53%the likeliest
Exact score
4–1
3%13th of 36
Goals in the match
5 goals
10%5th of 7
Both teams score
Both teams score
62%the likeliest
Goals of Rennes
3 or more
28%
Goals of Auxerre
1 or more
71%
Winning margin
Rennes by 3 or more
13%5th of 7
Half-time
Level at half-time
38%2nd of 3
Second half
Rennes win the second half
44%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the second half
46%the likeliest
Half-time and full-time
Level at half-time, Rennes win
17%2nd of 9
First goal
Rennes score first
59%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 46-60
11%4th of 6
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
8 scored or set up a goal
Rennes
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boulaye Dia | 11′ | 2 | 2% | – | 2% |
| Esteban Lepaul | 79′ | 1 | 42% | – | 12% |
| Adrien Thomasson | 69′ | 1 | 20% | – | 24% |
| Bryan Reynolds | 90′ | – | 5% | 2 | 6% |
| Charlie Cresswell | 90′ | – | 9% | 1 | 6% |
| Ludovic Blas | 11′ | – | 3% | 1 | 3% |
| Issa Soumaré | 79′ | – | 27% | – | 13% |
| Mousa Al Tamari | 69′ | – | 16% | – | 18% |
| Mahdi Camara | 90′ | – | 10% | – | 8% |
| Valentin Rongier | 90′ | – | 8% | – | 13% |
| Anthony Rouault | 90′ | – | 7% | – | 2% |
| Mahamadou Nagida | 87′ | – | 4% | – | 5% |
| Eliezer Mayenda | 21′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Djaoui Cissé | 21′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski | 3′ | – | 1% | – | 2% |
| Brice Samba | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Auxerre
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Archer | 90′ | 1 | 33% | – | 11% |
| Mamadou Diop | 90′ | – | <1% | 1 | <1% |
| Danny Namaso | 79′ | – | 17% | – | 12% |
| Romain Faivre | 89′ | – | 13% | – | 13% |
| Kévin Danois | 90′ | – | 6% | – | 9% |
| Arthur Piedfort | 84′ | – | 6% | – | 7% |
| Naouirou Ahamada | 79′ | – | 6% | – | 8% |
| Lamine Sy | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 5% |
| Axel Tuanzebe | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 2% |
| Aristide Zossou | 6′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Remy Labeau Lascary | 11′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Fredrik Oppegård | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 3% |
| Clément Akpa | 78′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Pierre Ekwah | 11′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Elikya Legros | 12′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check