Ligue 1Vesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Maronnier22'
- Karim58'
- Mille88'
- Beach90+6'
- Gomes45'
- Harit50'
- Abdelli pen90+8'
29%Troyes win
25%Draw
46%Marseille win · happened
Match events
2 goals · 5 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Troyes
Marseille
Marseille90+8'Himad Abdelli penalty
Patrick Beach90+6'
Antoine Mille88'
87'Faris MoumbagnaIgor Paixão
87'Geoffrey KondogbiaAngel Gomes
Timothé NkadaMouhamed Diop78'
Christ BatolaDermane Karim78'
Alexandre PhiliponeauJeremy Le Douaron77'
73'Tochukwu NnadiNouhoum Kamissoko
Hugo PicardKandet Diawara69'
63'Neal MaupayAmine Gouiri
63'Keyliane AbdallahAmine Harit
Renaud RipartIron Gomis61'
Dermane Karim58'
50'Amine Harit · EmersonMarseille 38% → 69%
Draw 36% → 22%
Next goal Marseille 47% → 44%
Goals to come 1.8 → 1.8
Half time
45'Angel Gomes
Lucas Maronnier22'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Troyes 4-2-3-1line-ups4-2-3-1 MarseilleMarseille 4-2-3-1line-upTroyes 4-2-3-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: H. Abdelli, A. Harit
Troyes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Beach | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Lucas Maronnier | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Michel Diaz | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Adrien Monfray | 90 | 3 | 0.10 | ||
| Paolo Gozzi Iweru | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Antoine Mille | 90 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Dermane Karim | 78 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Mouhamed Diop | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Le Douaron | 77 | 3 | 0.18 | ||
| Kandet Diawara | 69 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Iron Gomis | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Renaud Ripart sub | 29 | 3 | 0.48 | ||
| Hugo Picard sub | 21 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Phliponeau sub | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Christ Batola sub | 12 | 2 | 0.22 | ||
| Timothee Nkada sub | 12 | 2 | 0.07 |
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey de Lange | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Kelyann Bezahaf | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Naif Aguerd | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| CJ Egan-Riley | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Emerson | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Himad Abdelli | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0.90 | |
| Angel Gomes | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Igor Paixão | 87 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Nouhoum Kamissoko | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Amine Harit | 63 | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | |
| Amine Gouiri | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Keyliane Abdallah sub | 27 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Neal Maupay sub | 27 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Tochukwu Nnadi sub | 17 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Faris Moumbagna sub | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | ||
| Geoffrey Kondogbia sub | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
37%Possession63%
80%Passes completed89%
15Shots5
3Shots on target2
6Corners3
14Fouls15
2Offsides2
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Saves3
Every shot
Troyes shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Himad Abdelli | Marseille | 98' | Goal penalty | 0.78 |
| Renaud Ripart | Troyes | 91' | Woodwork | 0.22 |
| Christ Batola | Troyes | 92' | Off target | 0.21 |
| Renaud Ripart | Troyes | 76' | Blocked | 0.19 |
| Amine Harit | Marseille | 50' | Goal | 0.16 |
| Faris Moumbagna | Marseille | 95' | Blocked set piece | 0.13 |
Marseille win: the likeliest of the three outcomes for Vesta, at 46%.
1.5–1.9goals expected; the chances made were worth 1.1–1.2
6%for 0–2, 6th likeliest of 36 scores
66%three goals or more · did not happen
54%Marseille to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Marseille win
46%the likeliest
Exact score
0–2
6%6th of 36
Goals in the match
2 goals
20%2nd of 7
Both teams score
At least one team does not score
31%2nd of 2
Goals of Marseille
2 or more
57%
Winning margin
Marseille by 2
14%4th of 7
Clean sheet
Marseille win without conceding
18%
Half-time
Level at half-time
37%2nd of 3
Second half
Marseille win the second half
40%the likeliest
Halves
More goals in the second half
47%the likeliest
Half-time and full-time
Level at half-time, Marseille win
14%3rd of 9
First goal
Marseille score first
54%the likeliest
When the first goal came
Minutes 46-60
10%4th of 6
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
3 scored or set up a goal
Troyes
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Le Douaron | 77′ | – | 36% | – | 10% |
| Antoine Mille | 90′ | – | 17% | – | 16% |
| Mouhamed Diop | 78′ | – | 14% | – | 8% |
| Iron Gomis | 61′ | – | 12% | – | 10% |
| Kandet Diawara | 69′ | – | 11% | – | 16% |
| Lucas Maronnier | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 6% |
| Dermane Karim | 78′ | – | 9% | – | 12% |
| Adrien Monfray | 90′ | – | 5% | – | 7% |
| Renaud Ripart | 29′ | – | 4% | – | 1% |
| Michel Diaz | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 2% |
| Hugo Picard | 21′ | – | 2% | – | 2% |
| Timothee Nkada | 12′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Patrick Beach | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Marseille
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Himad Abdelli | 90′ | 1 | 14% | – | 5% |
| Amine Harit | 63′ | 1 | 11% | – | 18% |
| Emerson | 90′ | – | 3% | 1 | 16% |
| Amine Gouiri | 63′ | – | 46% | – | 18% |
| Igor Paixão | 87′ | – | 21% | – | 13% |
| Angel Gomes | 87′ | – | 17% | – | 8% |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko | 73′ | – | 16% | – | 18% |
| Naif Aguerd | 90′ | – | 8% | – | 2% |
| Kelyann Bezahaf | 90′ | – | 6% | – | 7% |
| Keyliane Abdallah | 27′ | – | 4% | – | 3% |
| Neal Maupay | 27′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Faris Moumbagna | 3′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| CJ Egan-Riley | 90′ | – | 2% | – | 5% |
| Tochukwu Nnadi | 17′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia | 3′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
| Jeffrey de Lange | 90′ | – | <1% | – | 1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check