Ligue 1Vesta · published Sat 10 Oct- Diop og45+2'
- Diop75'
- Clauss81'
- Essugo41'
- Oso47'
31%Nice win · happened
28%Draw
41%Strasbourg win
Match events
3 goals · 2 cards · 9 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Nice
Strasbourg
StrasbourgIsak JanssonGauthier Hein86'
Everton PereiraAxel Witsel86'
Jonathan Clauss · Sofiane DiopNice 16% → 78%
Draw 65% → 20%
Next goal Nice 18% → 17%
Goals to come 0.5 → 0.581'
76'Lucas HøgsbergJeyland Mitchell
Sofiane Diop75'
Sofiane DiopElye Wahi73'
73'Fabio BaldéSamuel Amo-Ameyaw
73'Samir El MourabetDário Essugo
63'Giovanni ReynaDiogo Sousa
63'Jacobo Ortega CondeConrad Harder
47'Oso
Half time
Pape Diop own goal45+2'
41'Dário Essugo · Conrad HarderStrasbourg 36% → 66%
Draw 35% → 23%
Next goal Strasbourg 45% → 43%
Goals to come 1.9 → 1.9
Hicham BoudaouiDjibril Coulibaly37'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Nice 3-4-2-1line-ups4-3-3 StrasbourgStrasbourg 4-3-3line-upNice 3-4-2-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Who played
goals: J. Clauss, D. Essugo
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yehvann Diouf | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Xavier Mandza | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Mohamed Abdelmonem | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Clauss | 90 | 1 | 4 | 0.45 | |
| Niels Nkounkou | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Mohammed Amoura | 90 | 3 | 0.09 | ||
| Axel Witsel | 89 | 1 | 0.12 | ||
| Gauthier Hein | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Sepe Elye Wahi | 76 | 1 | 0.26 | ||
| Djibril Coulibaly | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Hichem Boudaoui sub | 54 | 1 | 0.02 | ||
| Sofiane Diop sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Isak Jansson sub | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | ||
| Everton Pereira sub | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Jorgensen | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Genesis Antwi | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Karim Coulibaly | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Oso | 90 | 1 | 0.05 | ||
| Pape Diop | 90 | 2 | 0.05 | ||
| Gessime Yassine | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Jeyland Mitchell | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Dário Essugo | 76 | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 76 | 2 | 0.14 | ||
| Diogo Sousa | 66 | 2 | 0.07 | ||
| Conrad Harder | 66 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | |
| Jacobo Ortega sub | 24 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Giovanni Reyna sub | 24 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Samir El Mourabet sub | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Fabio Baldé sub | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| Lucas Høgsberg sub | 11 | 0 | 0.00 |
Stats
Match stats
45%Possession55%
87%Passes completed91%
11Shots12
6Shots on target3
2Corners3
3Fouls8
5Offsides2
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Saves4
Every shot
Nice shoot to the right · filled: a goal · bigger: a better chanceThe match in expected goals
chance quality added up minute by minuteThe best chances
| Player | Team | Minute | What | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Clauss | Nice | 45' | Saved | 0.34 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi | Nice | 59' | Off target | 0.26 |
| Dário Essugo | Strasbourg | 71' | Off target from a corner | 0.14 |
| Axel Witsel | Nice | 51' | Saved | 0.12 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | Strasbourg | 66' | Off target | 0.10 |
| Dário Essugo | Strasbourg | 41' | Goal | 0.07 |
Nice win: Vesta's second choice of the three, at 31%.
1.4–1.6goals expected; the chances made were worth 1.0–0.6
8%for 2–1, 3rd likeliest of 36 scores
56%three goals or more · happened
44%Nice to score first · happened
Every chance was published before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. The full track record ›
What came true
13 of Vesta's forecasts, with the chance each had before kick-off
Result
Nice win
31%2nd of 3
Exact score
2–1
8%3rd of 36
Goals in the match
3 goals
23%2nd of 7
Both teams score
Both teams score
62%the likeliest
Goals of Nice
2 or more
39%
Goals of Strasbourg
1 or more
81%
Winning margin
Nice by 1
18%3rd of 7
Half-time
Strasbourg ahead at half-time
32%2nd of 3
Second half
Nice win the second half
28%3rd of 3
Halves
More goals in the second half
45%the likeliest
Half-time and full-time
Strasbourg ahead at half-time, Nice win
2%9th of 9
First goal
Nice score first
44%2nd of 3
When the first goal came
Minutes 46-60
11%4th of 6
Each of these happened. The bar is the chance Vesta gave it before kick-off; the likeliest when no other outcome of the same kind had more. A forecast does well when things like these happen about as often as their chances say, over many matches. The track record ›
Players
Every player, how it went
4 scored or set up a goal
Nice
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Clauss | 90′ | 1 | 6% | – | 18% |
| Sofiane Diop | 14′ | – | 4% | 1 | 2% |
| Mohammed Amoura | 90′ | – | 28% | – | 12% |
| Sepe Elye Wahi | 76′ | – | 28% | – | 9% |
| Gauthier Hein | 89′ | – | 21% | – | 17% |
| Djibril Coulibaly | 36′ | – | 9% | – | 8% |
| Axel Witsel | 89′ | – | 8% | – | 7% |
| Niels Nkounkou | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 6% |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 3% |
| Hichem Boudaoui | 54′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Isak Jansson | 1′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Everton Pereira | 1′ | – | 1% | – | <1% |
| Yehvann Diouf | 90′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
Strasbourg
| Player | Played | Goals | To score | Assists | To assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dário Essugo | 76′ | 1 | 16% | – | 15% |
| Conrad Harder | 66′ | – | 32% | 1 | 16% |
| Gessime Yassine | 90′ | – | 23% | – | 15% |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 76′ | – | 15% | – | 9% |
| Diogo Sousa | 66′ | – | 14% | – | 11% |
| Pape Diop | 90′ | – | 9% | – | 9% |
| Oso | 90′ | – | 8% | – | 11% |
| Jeyland Mitchell | 79′ | – | 4% | – | 4% |
| Karim Coulibaly | 90′ | – | 4% | – | 2% |
| Genesis Antwi | 90′ | – | 3% | – | 3% |
| Fabio Baldé | 14′ | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Giovanni Reyna | 24′ | – | 2% | – | 1% |
| Samir El Mourabet | 14′ | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Lucas Høgsberg | 11′ | – | <1% | – | <1% |
No set of chances was logged before kick-off: these are worked out again here from the squads known that day. See the check