Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Le Mans 3-5-2likely elevens4-2-3-1 Toulouse
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Le Mans
Toulouse
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Le Mans
Toulouse
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Toulouse, just.
Toulouse win about 41 times in 100. The other 59: a draw (26) or a Le Mans win (33).Every forecast ›1.5–1.7goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 12%
63%three goals or more
67%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Le Mans score first45%Le Mans win 58%
Toulouse score first51%Toulouse win 65%
Le Mans score first, in the first 15 minutes16%Le Mans win 55%
Le Mans ahead at half-time29%Le Mans win 67%
Level at half-time37%Le Mans win 29%
Numbers to expectLe MansToulouse
Shots11.616.7
Shots on target4.84.7
Corners3.75.5
Fouls12.413.5
Yellow cards1.51.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandLe Mans first, Toulouse in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 85%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals4%not checked on its own yet
1 goal12%not checked on its own yet
2 goals22%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals19%not checked on its own yet
5 goals11%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals10%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 26%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Le Mans by 3 or more5%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans by 210%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans by 118%not checked on its own yet
Draw26%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse by 120%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse by 212%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse by 3 or more8%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Toulouse keep a clean sheet 20%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Le Mans keep a clean sheet17%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse keep a clean sheet20%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans win without conceding13%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse win without conceding16%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all4%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners77%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners55%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners33%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Mans: 4 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse: 6 or more46%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Le Mans26%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Toulouse64%not checked on its own yet
Shots
26 or more shots 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
26 or more shots64%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots53%not checked on its own yet
30 or more shots41%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Mans: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse: 17 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Le Mans20%not checked on its own yet
As many each5%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Toulouse75%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
24 or more fouls 67%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
24 or more fouls67%not checked on its own yet
26 or more fouls52%not checked on its own yet
28 or more fouls37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Mans: 12 or more58%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse: 14 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Le Mans38%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Toulouse55%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
04653115129521248842324321411115
Le Mans's goals down the side, Toulouse's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Toulouse: 1 or more 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 84%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half76%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half84%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans ahead at half-time29%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time39%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse ahead at half-time32%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans win the second half30%not checked on its own yet
Second half level33%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse win the second half37%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half46%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves23%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Le Mans ahead at half-time, Le Mans win19%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Le Mans win11%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse ahead at half-time, Le Mans win3%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw14%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Le Mans ahead at half-time, Toulouse win3%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Toulouse win14%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse ahead at half-time, Toulouse win23%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Toulouse score first 50%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Le Mans score first46%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse score first50%not checked on its own yet
No goals4%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1537%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3023%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+4%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
3 or more yellow cards 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
1 or more yellow cards96%not checked on its own yet
3 or more yellow cards64%not checked on its own yet
5 or more yellow cards23%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Mans: 1 or more77%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse: 2 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Le Mans32%not checked on its own yet
As many each23%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Toulouse46%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
8 or more shots on target 72%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more shots on target72%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target48%not checked on its own yet
12 or more shots on target26%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Mans: 5 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Toulouse: 5 or more50%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Le Mans45%not checked on its own yet
As many each13%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Toulouse43%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Louis Mafouta 30%
Le Mans
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Mafouta | 62 | 30% | 5% | 9% | 1.3 |
| Dame Gueye | 48 | 17% | 2% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Lucas Calodat | 55 | 7% | 0% | 14% | 0.6 |
| Billal Brahimi bench | 23 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Adil Bourabaa bench | 32 | 7% | 0% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Habib Diallo bench | 27 | 7% | 0% | 2% | 0.6 |
| Rayan Bamba | 73 | 6% | 0% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Lucas Bretelle | 59 | 5% | 0% | 10% | 0.5 |
| Jean Vercruysse | 44 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Samuel Yohou | 67 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Alexandre Lauray | 46 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Antoine Rabillard bench | 26 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Thorstein Helstad bench | 7 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Fousseyni Cisse bench | 7 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| William Harhouz bench | 18 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Yasser Larouci bench | 20 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Harold Voyer | 74 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Anthony Tallec bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Modibo Maiga bench | 5 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Noa Boissé | 63 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Djibril Sidibe bench | 17 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Daouda Traoré bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ludovic Baal bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Mathieu Dossevi bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Erwan Colas bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lucas Buades bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Sébastien Corchia bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Raúl Torrente bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| João Paulo bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cyriaque Louvion bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Théo Eyoum bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nicolas Kocik | 68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ewan Hatfout bench | 18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Didier Ovono bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Tengstedt | 52 | 30% | 5% | 11% | 1.5 |
| Thomas Jørgensen | 74 | 18% | 2% | 15% | 1.5 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe | 41 | 15% | 1% | 3% | 1.1 |
| Christ Tapé | 75 | 12% | 1% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Santiago Hidalgo bench | 35 | 10% | 1% | 8% | 0.9 |
| Sion Oppong bench | 42 | 10% | 0% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Ilyas Azizi | 51 | 7% | 0% | 6% | 1.1 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 80 | 7% | 0% | 15% | 0.8 |
| Seny Koumbassa | 71 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Emersonn bench | 11 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Alexis Vossah | 55 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Niko Sigur bench | 31 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Aron Dønnum bench | 17 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Julián Vignolo bench | 8 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Niklas Schmidt bench | 18 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Yann Gboho bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Rafik Messali | 51 | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Mark McKenzie | 80 | 1% | 0% | 7% | 0.2 |
| Warren Kamanzi bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ismaïl Diallo bench | 17 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Pape Diop bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Djibril Sidibe bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Cresswell bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen bench | 16 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Dayann Methalie bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Guillaume Restes | 78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mathys Niflore bench | 16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check