Serie AVesta · published Mon 12 Oct- Kessié4'
- Krstovic6', 30'
- Elmas89'
- Moreno18'
- Hainaut37'
- Jesus42'
58%Atalanta win
24%Draw
18%Venezia win
Match events
4 goals · 3 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Atalanta
Venezia
VeneziaEljif ElmasAtalanta >99% → 99%
Draw <1% → 1%
Next goal Atalanta 15% → 9%
Goals to come 0.3 → 0.289'
87'Albion RrahmaniSimon Sohm
83'Lion LauberbachAkor Adams
83'Joel SchingtienneMatías Moreno
83'Thorir Johann HelgasonToma Basic
Gianluca GaetanoFranck Kessié76'
Nicola ZalewskiJon Rowe76'
Lorenzo BernasconiRaoul Bellanova67'
Sead KolasinacGiorgio Scalvini67'
Lazar SamardzicCharles De Ketelaere60'
Half time
42'Juan Jesus
37'Antoine Hainaut · Richie SagradoVenezia <1% → 1%
Draw 1% → 5%
Next goal Venezia 32% → 30%
Goals to come 2.0 → 2.0
Nikola KrstovicAtalanta 93% → 99%
Draw 5% → 1%
Next goal Atalanta 57% → 57%
Goals to come 2.2 → 2.230'
18'Matías Moreno
8'Richie SagradoThierry Correia
Nikola Krstovic · Eljif ElmasAtalanta 79% → 92%
Draw 15% → 6%
Next goal Atalanta 60% → 61%
Goals to come 2.9 → 2.96'
Franck Kessié · Nikola KrstovicAtalanta 58% → 79%
Draw 24% → 14%
Next goal Atalanta 62% → 60%
Goals to come 3.0 → 3.04'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Atalanta 4-2-3-1line-ups3-5-2 VeneziaVenezia 3-5-2line-upAtalanta 4-2-3-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Stats
Match stats
36%Possession64%
83%Passes completed91%
22Shots19
11Shots on target4
8Corners7
14Fouls6
0Offsides5
0Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
3Saves7
Atalanta ahead.
Atalanta win about 58 times in 100. The other 42: a draw (24) or a Venezia win (18).Every forecast ›2.0–1.1goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 11%
61%three goals or more
61%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Atalanta score first63%Atalanta win 78%
Venezia score first33%Venezia win 44%
Atalanta score first, in the first 15 minutes22%Atalanta win 78%
Atalanta ahead at half-time45%Atalanta win 84%
Level at half-time36%Atalanta win 47%
Numbers to expectAtalantaVenezia
Shots16.711.0
Shots on target5.13.4
Corners5.53.6
Fouls11.611.2
Yellow cards1.41.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandAtalanta first, Venezia in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Atalanta win or draw 82%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals4%not checked on its own yet
1 goal12%not checked on its own yet
2 goals23%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals18%not checked on its own yet
5 goals11%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals9%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 24%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Atalanta by 3 or more17%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta by 218%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta by 123%not checked on its own yet
Draw24%not checked on its own yet
Venezia by 112%not checked on its own yet
Venezia by 25%not checked on its own yet
Venezia by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Atalanta keep a clean sheet 32%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Atalanta keep a clean sheet32%not checked on its own yet
Venezia keep a clean sheet12%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta win without conceding28%not checked on its own yet
Venezia win without conceding7%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all4%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners75%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners53%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Atalanta: 6 or more46%not checked on its own yet
Venezia: 4 or more46%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Atalanta66%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Venezia24%not checked on its own yet
Shots
26 or more shots 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
26 or more shots61%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
30 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Atalanta: 17 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Venezia: 11 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Atalanta78%not checked on its own yet
As many each4%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Venezia18%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
21 or more fouls 67%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more fouls67%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls51%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls36%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Atalanta: 12 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Venezia: 11 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Atalanta49%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Venezia43%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0442118115229116236741433215111
Atalanta's goals down the side, Venezia's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Atalanta: 1 or more 88%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half75%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half83%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time43%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time38%not checked on its own yet
Venezia ahead at half-time19%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta win the second half48%not checked on its own yet
Second half level33%not checked on its own yet
Venezia win the second half19%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half31%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half45%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves24%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Atalanta ahead at half-time, Atalanta win36%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Atalanta win18%not checked on its own yet
Venezia ahead at half-time, Atalanta win4%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw13%not checked on its own yet
Venezia ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time, Venezia win1%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Venezia win7%not checked on its own yet
Venezia ahead at half-time, Venezia win10%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Atalanta score first 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Atalanta score first62%not checked on its own yet
Venezia score first34%not checked on its own yet
No goals4%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1536%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3023%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+17%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+4%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
3 or more yellow cards 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
1 or more yellow cards96%not checked on its own yet
3 or more yellow cards62%not checked on its own yet
5 or more yellow cards22%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Atalanta: 1 or more76%not checked on its own yet
Venezia: 2 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Atalanta32%not checked on its own yet
As many each23%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Venezia45%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target73%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target47%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target25%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Atalanta: 5 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Venezia: 3 or more66%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Atalanta64%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Venezia24%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Nikola Krstovic 30%
Atalanta
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic | 79 | 30% | 5% | 10% | 2.1 |
| Gianluca Scamacca bench | 14 | 23% | 3% | 5% | 1.6 |
| Giacomo Raspadori bench | 11 | 18% | 2% | 9% | 1.6 |
| Jonathan Rowe | 79 | 15% | 1% | 8% | 1.6 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 80 | 15% | 1% | 25% | 1.5 |
| Éderson | 83 | 13% | 1% | 7% | 1.1 |
| Giorgio Scalvini | 81 | 10% | 1% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Lazar Samardzic bench | 9 | 10% | 1% | 8% | 1.1 |
| Franck Kessié | 80 | 8% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Mario Pasalic bench | 10 | 5% | 0% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Eljif Elmas | 77 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 89 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Gianluca Gaetano bench | 12 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Davide Zappacosta | 82 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Nicola Zalewski bench | 14 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Raoul Bellanova | 78 | 2% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi bench | 13 | 2% | 0% | 9% | 0.3 |
| Sead Kolasinac bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Marco Carnesecchi | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marco Sportiello bench | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Yeboah | 86 | 22% | 3% | 10% | 1.7 |
| Akor Adams | 86 | 17% | 2% | 4% | 1.5 |
| Antoine Hainaut | 89 | 6% | 0% | 10% | 0.4 |
| Kike Pérez | 85 | 5% | 0% | 8% | 0.8 |
| Richie Sagrado bench | 16 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Toni Fernández bench | 9 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Ridgeciano Haps bench | 13 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Simon Sohm | 73 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Thórir Helgason bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Joël Schingtienne bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Matías Moreno | 84 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Lion Lauberbach bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Thierry Correia | 75 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Juan Jesus | 84 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Matteo Dagasso bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Toma Basic | 77 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Filip Stankovic | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check