Serie AVesta · published Mon 12 Oct- Bragança36'
- Kulenovic67'
- Ekkelenkamp43'
- Bertola89'
40%Torino win
29%Draw
31%Udinese win
Match events
3 goals · 1 cards · 10 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Torino
Udinese
Udinese89'Nicolò Bertola
81'Juan David ArizalaHassane Kamara
Gvidas GineitisEmirhan Ilkhan77'
72'David AlabaMërgim Vojvoda
72'Keinan DavisUnai Gómez
72'Lazar JovanovicOier Zarraga
Sandro KulenovicTorino 26% → 75%
Draw 53% → 21%
Next goal Torino 30% → 29%
Goals to come 0.8 → 0.8
Likeliest 2–1 42%
Clean sheet Torino <1% → <1%67'
Sandro KulenovicChé Adams64'
60'Nicolò BertolaJames Abankwah
Emirhan IlkhanDaniel Bragança54'
Nikola VlasicGaetano Oristanio54'
Half time
Adrian IsmajliRicardo Rodríguez45'
43'Jurgen EkkelenkampUdinese 9% → 27%
Draw 24% → 38%
Next goal Udinese 41% → 36%
Goals to come 1.6 → 1.6
Likeliest 1–1 21%
Clean sheet Udinese <1% → <1%
Daniel BragançaTorino 35% → 67%
Draw 36% → 23%
Next goal Torino 45% → 42%
Goals to come 1.8 → 1.836'
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Torino 3-4-2-1line-ups3-4-2-1 UdineseUdinese 3-4-2-1line-upTorino 3-4-2-1line-up
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Stats
Match stats
38%Possession62%
83%Passes completed91%
12Shots15
4Shots on target1
4Corners3
4Fouls10
7Offsides0
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Saves2
Torino, just.
Torino win about 40 times in 100. The other 60: a draw (29) or an Udinese win (31).Every forecast ›1.4–1.2goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 15%
48%three goals or more
56%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Torino score first50%Torino win 68%
Udinese score first43%Udinese win 60%
Torino score first, in the first 15 minutes15%Torino win 65%
Torino ahead at half-time32%Torino win 74%
Level at half-time42%Torino win 33%
Numbers to expectTorinoUdinese
Shots13.712.0
Shots on target4.13.9
Corners4.94.1
Fouls10.612.1
Yellow cards1.41.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandTorino first, Udinese in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals7%not checked on its own yet
1 goal18%not checked on its own yet
2 goals27%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals15%not checked on its own yet
5 goals7%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals4%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 29%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Torino by 3 or more6%not checked on its own yet
Torino by 212%not checked on its own yet
Torino by 122%not checked on its own yet
Draw29%not checked on its own yet
Udinese by 118%not checked on its own yet
Udinese by 29%not checked on its own yet
Udinese by 3 or more4%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Torino keep a clean sheet 28%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Torino keep a clean sheet28%not checked on its own yet
Udinese keep a clean sheet23%not checked on its own yet
Torino win without conceding21%not checked on its own yet
Udinese win without conceding16%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all7%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners75%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners52%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Torino: 5 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Udinese: 4 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Torino53%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Udinese36%not checked on its own yet
Shots
24 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
24 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Torino: 14 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Udinese: 12 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Torino57%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Udinese37%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
21 or more fouls 67%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more fouls67%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls51%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Torino: 11 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Udinese: 12 or more55%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Torino34%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Udinese58%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
078521110158312796213342141115
Torino's goals down the side, Udinese's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Torino: 1 or more 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half69%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half77%not checked on its own yet
Torino ahead at half-time32%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time43%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time25%not checked on its own yet
Torino win the second half34%not checked on its own yet
Second half level38%not checked on its own yet
Udinese win the second half28%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half44%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves27%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Torino ahead at half-time, Torino win23%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Torino win15%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time, Torino win2%not checked on its own yet
Torino ahead at half-time, draw7%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw17%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Torino ahead at half-time, Udinese win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Udinese win11%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time, Udinese win17%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Torino score first 50%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Torino score first50%not checked on its own yet
Udinese score first43%not checked on its own yet
No goals7%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6012%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
3 or more yellow cards 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
1 or more yellow cards96%not checked on its own yet
3 or more yellow cards62%not checked on its own yet
5 or more yellow cards22%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Torino: 1 or more76%not checked on its own yet
Udinese: 2 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Torino31%not checked on its own yet
As many each23%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Udinese46%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target79%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target53%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target28%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Torino: 4 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Udinese: 4 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Torino46%not checked on its own yet
As many each14%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Udinese40%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Giovanni Simeone 26%
Torino
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Simeone | 79 | 26% | 4% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Nikola Vlasic bench | 16 | 15% | 1% | 9% | 1.1 |
| Rolando Mandragora | 78 | 11% | 1% | 8% | 1.2 |
| Sandro Kulenovic bench | 6 | 9% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Che Adams | 79 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Duván Zapata bench | 10 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Gaetano Oristanio | 68 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan bench | 12 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Eray Cömert bench | 11 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Kian Fitz-Jim bench | 10 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 0.4 |
| Daniel Bragança | 70 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Saúl Coco | 87 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Rafik Belghali | 82 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Cesare Casadei bench | 14 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Alessio Cacciamani | 80 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.2 |
| Pietro Comuzzo | 85 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Gvidas Gineitis bench | 8 | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Nathan Patterson bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Ardian Ismajli bench | 16 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez | 85 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Cristiano Biraghi bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lucas Perri | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Diego Mascardi bench | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 81 | 13% | 1% | 8% | 1.1 |
| Keinan Davis bench | 9 | 10% | 1% | 5% | 0.6 |
| James Abankwah | 88 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Giorgi Chakvetadze | 82 | 6% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Unai Gómez | 57 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Mergim Vojvoda | 74 | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0.4 |
| Christian Kabasele bench | 12 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Hassane Kamara | 83 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 0.6 |
| Jesper Karlström | 88 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Lennon Miller bench | 13 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Oumar Solet | 86 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Oier Zarraga | 83 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Enzo Ebosse | 84 | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0.1 |
| Sandi Lovric bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Nicolò Bertola bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Juan Arizala bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Matteo Palma bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Maduka Okoye | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check