1. Matches
  2. Serie A

Cagliari v Juventus

12%Cagliari
24%Draw
64%Juventus

Juventus ahead.

Tested

Juventus win about 64 times in 100. The other 36: a draw (24) or a Cagliari win (12).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:25 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals44%
Both teams score41%
Expected goals0.7 v 1.8
Most likely score0-115% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Cagliari4-2-3-14-2-3-1Juventus

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots9.516.9
Shots on target2.95.4
Corners3.35.9
Fouls10.512.3
Yellow cards1.91.5

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Cagliari v Juventus changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowCagliari winDrawJuventus win
Cagliari
Top 4<1%1%<1%<1%
Bottom 33%1%3%3%
Juventus
Title5%4%4%6%
Top 467%60%64%72%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals10%

Exactly

0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%

Goals by team

Tested
Cagliari: 1 or more49%
Cagliari: 2 or more14%
Cagliari: 3 or more3%
Juventus: 1 or more83%
Juventus: 2 or more53%
Juventus: 3 or more27%
Both teams score41%
At least one team does not score59%

Winning margin

Tested
Cagliari by 3 or more1%
Cagliari by 22%
Cagliari by 19%
Draw24%
Juventus by 126%
Juventus by 220%
Juventus by 3 or more18%

Result combinations

Tested
Cagliari win or draw37%
Either team wins (no draw)76%
Juventus win or draw88%

Clean sheets

Tested
Cagliari keep a clean sheet17%
Juventus keep a clean sheet51%
Cagliari win without conceding8%
Juventus win without conceding42%
No goals at all9%

The first goal

Model estimate
Cagliari score first24%
Juventus score first67%
No goals9%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6012%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Cagliari goals down, Juventus goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
09.214.813.48.23.81.4
15.411.18.85.42.50.9
21.73.13.41.80.80.3
30.40.70.60.50.20.1
40.10.10.10.1··
5······

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half75%
Cagliari ahead at half-time12%
Level at half-time43%
Juventus ahead at half-time45%
Cagliari win the second half14%
Second half level36%
Juventus win the second half50%
More goals in the first half28%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves28%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Cagliari ahead at half-time, Cagliari win6%
Level at half-time, Cagliari win6%
Juventus ahead at half-time, Cagliari win1%
Cagliari ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Juventus ahead at half-time, draw4%
Cagliari ahead at half-time, Juventus win2%
Level at half-time, Juventus win21%
Juventus ahead at half-time, Juventus win41%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
CagliariJuventus

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Cagliari
Cagliari: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Paul Mendy7416%1%4%19%1.1
Daniel Maldini7611%<1%5%15%0.8
Alessandro Romano896%<1%5%11%0.7
Harry Winks844%<1%4%8%0.5
Alessandro Deiola894%<1%3%6%0.5
Ndary Adopo903%<1%5%8%0.4
Jacopo Fazzini503%<1%5%7%0.4
Juan Rodríguez803%<1%<1%3%0.1
Kevin Omoruyi bench142%<1%<1%3%0.2
Alieu Fadera bench182%<1%1%3%0.1
Zé Pedro822%<1%2%3%0.2
Adam Obert902%<1%5%7%0.2
Gennaro Borrelli bench61%<1%<1%1%0.1
Raphael Kofler bench13<1%<1%<1%2%0.1
Mattia Felici bench7<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Yerry Mina bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Yukinari Sugawara bench10<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Elia Caprile90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Juventus
Juventus: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Francisco Conceição7524%3%15%36%2.8
Randal Kolo Muani9020%2%10%28%1.9
Nicolás González4616%1%5%20%1.5
Bremer9015%1%6%21%1.1
Weston McKennie bench3510%<1%7%16%0.7
Douglas Luiz8610%<1%13%21%1.7
Jeremie Boga bench209%<1%4%13%0.6
Jonathan Christian David bench129%<1%3%12%0.4
Kerim-Sam Alajbegovic468%<1%5%13%1.4
Manuel Locatelli546%<1%7%12%1.0
Mehmet Zeki Çelik865%<1%9%14%0.8
Kenan Yildiz bench145%<1%5%9%0.5
Nick Woltemade bench94%<1%2%6%0.2
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa904%<1%12%16%0.4
Edon Zhegrova bench134%<1%4%8%0.6
Jhon Lucumí614%<1%2%6%0.3
Teun Koopmeiners bench243%<1%2%5%0.5
Pape Sarr bench122%<1%3%5%0.2
Lloyd Kelly bench291%<1%1%3%0.2
Andrea Cambiaso bench6<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Guglielmo Vicario90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0