Cagliari v Juventus
Juventus ahead.
TestedJuventus win about 64 times in 100. The other 36: a draw (24) or a Cagliari win (12).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:25 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Francisco Conceição24%to score
- Randal Kolo Muani20%to score
- Nicolás González16%to score
- Bremer15%to score
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Cagliari win | Draw | Juventus win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | ||||
| Top 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bottom 3 | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Juventus | ||||
| Title | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% |
| Top 4 | 67% | 60% | 64% | 72% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Cagliari goals down, Juventus goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Mendy | 16% | 4% | 1.1 |
| Daniel Maldini | 11% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Alessandro Romano | 6% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Harry Winks | 4% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Alessandro Deiola | 4% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Ndary Adopo | 3% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Jacopo Fazzini | 3% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Juan Rodríguez | 3% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Kevin Omoruyi bench | 2% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Alieu Fadera bench | 2% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Zé Pedro | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Adam Obert | 2% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Gennaro Borrelli bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Raphael Kofler bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Mattia Felici bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Yerry Mina bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Yukinari Sugawara bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Elia Caprile | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Conceição | 24% | 15% | 2.8 |
| Randal Kolo Muani | 20% | 10% | 1.9 |
| Nicolás González | 16% | 5% | 1.5 |
| Bremer | 15% | 6% | 1.1 |
| Weston McKennie bench | 10% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Douglas Luiz | 10% | 13% | 1.7 |
| Jeremie Boga bench | 9% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Jonathan Christian David bench | 9% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Kerim-Sam Alajbegovic | 8% | 5% | 1.4 |
| Manuel Locatelli | 6% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 5% | 9% | 0.8 |
| Kenan Yildiz bench | 5% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Nick Woltemade bench | 4% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 4% | 12% | 0.4 |
| Edon Zhegrova bench | 4% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Jhon Lucumí | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Teun Koopmeiners bench | 3% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Pape Sarr bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Lloyd Kelly bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Andrea Cambiaso bench | <1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Guglielmo Vicario | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



