La LigaVesta · published Mon 12 Oct- de la Fuente39'
- Romero57'
- Requena76'
- de la Fuente90+2'
- Ndukwe90+10'
- Ure13'
- Correia48'
- Correia54'
- Castrín63'
- González84'
- Romero90+2'
- Romero90+5'
- Iglesias90+6'
- Romero90+6'
46%Levante win
28%Draw
26%Sevilla win
Match events
6 goals · 8 cards · 9 changes, the latest first · win chances after goals and red cards: Vesta Live, a model estimate
Levante
Sevilla
SevillaIfeanyi NdukweLevante <1% → 3%
Draw 3% → 96%
Next goal Levante 3% → 3%
Goals to come 0.0 → 0.0
Likeliest 3–3 96%
Clean sheet Levante <1% → <1%90+10'
90+6'Isaac RomeroSevilla 97% → 95%
Draw 3% → 5%
Next goal Sevilla 2% → 1%
Goals to come 0.1 → 0.1
Likeliest 2–3 93%
Clean sheet Sevilla <1% → <1%
90+6'Juan Iglesias
90+5'Isaac Romero · Youssouf FofanaSevilla 2% → 96%
Draw 94% → 4%
Next goal Sevilla 3% → 3%
Goals to come 0.1 → 0.1
Likeliest 2–3 93%
Clean sheet Sevilla <1% → <1%
Adrián de la FuenteLevante <1% → 8%
Draw 9% → 87%
Next goal Levante 9% → 8%
Goals to come 0.2 → 0.1
Likeliest 2–2 86%
Clean sheet Levante <1% → <1%90+2'
90+2'Isaac Romero
Paco CortésJon Ander Olasagasti90'
Nacho PérezJeremy Toljan90'
88'Jon GuridiGiorgi Kochorashvili
84'Alfonso González
Dani Requena76'
72'Julio DíazFelix Correia
Dani RequenaOrio Rey68'
68'Isaac RomeroRobbie Ure
68'Alfonso GonzálezMiguel Sierra
63'Andrés Castrín
Iván Romero · Roger BruguéLevante 2% → 10%
Draw 10% → 28%
Next goal Levante 43% → 43%
Goals to come 1.2 → 1.2
Likeliest 1–2 30%
Clean sheet Levante <1% → <1%57'
Thiago FernandezVíctor García56'
Petar RatkovYanis Kasonga Musuayi56'
54'Felix Correia · Robbie UreSevilla 59% → 87%
Draw 29% → 10%
Next goal Sevilla 28% → 28%
Goals to come 1.3 → 1.3
Likeliest 0–2 27%
Clean sheet Sevilla 43% → 45%
48'Felix Correia
Half time
Adrián de la Fuente39'
13'Robbie UreSevilla 26% → 50%
Draw 30% → 27%
Next goal Sevilla 38% → 35%
Goals to come 2.4 → 2.4
Line-ups
from the official team sheets
Levante 4-4-2line-ups4-2-3-1 Sevilla
goal
own goal
assist
yellow card
red cardNamecame on in his place (the minute on hover)
Stats
Match stats
57%Possession43%
81%Passes completed79%
20Shots18
8Shots on target5
5Corners2
7Fouls17
0Offsides0
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
2Saves5
Levante, just.
Levante win about 46 times in 100. The other 54: a draw (28) or a Sevilla win (26).Every forecast ›1.5–1.1goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 14%
50%three goals or more
57%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Levante score first54%Levante win 72%
Sevilla score first39%Sevilla win 55%
Levante score first, in the first 15 minutes17%Levante win 70%
Levante ahead at half-time36%Levante win 78%
Level at half-time41%Levante win 37%
Numbers to expectLevanteSevilla
Shots12.811.1
Shots on target4.53.6
Corners4.94.1
Fouls11.813.7
Yellow cards1.82.5
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandLevante first, Sevilla in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Levante win or draw 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals7%not checked on its own yet
1 goal17%not checked on its own yet
2 goals26%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals15%not checked on its own yet
5 goals8%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals5%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 28%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Levante by 3 or more9%not checked on its own yet
Levante by 214%not checked on its own yet
Levante by 123%not checked on its own yet
Draw28%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla by 116%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla by 27%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla by 3 or more3%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Levante keep a clean sheet 31%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Levante keep a clean sheet31%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla keep a clean sheet19%not checked on its own yet
Levante win without conceding24%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla win without conceding13%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all7%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners75%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners52%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Levante: 5 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla: 4 or more55%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Levante54%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Sevilla35%not checked on its own yet
Shots
22 or more shots 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more shots64%not checked on its own yet
24 or more shots50%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Levante: 13 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla: 11 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Levante58%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Sevilla36%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
23 or more fouls 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
23 or more fouls71%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls56%not checked on its own yet
27 or more fouls41%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Levante: 12 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla: 14 or more50%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Levante32%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Sevilla61%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
077411101472128106234531412151
Levante's goals down the side, Sevilla's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Levante: 1 or more 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 78%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half70%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half78%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time35%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time42%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla ahead at half-time23%not checked on its own yet
Levante win the second half38%not checked on its own yet
Second half level37%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla win the second half24%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half44%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves26%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Levante ahead at half-time, Levante win27%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Levante win16%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla ahead at half-time, Levante win3%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw17%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time, Sevilla win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Sevilla win10%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla ahead at half-time, Sevilla win14%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Levante score first 54%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Levante score first54%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla score first39%not checked on its own yet
No goals7%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards93%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards62%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards26%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Levante: 2 or more54%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla: 2 or more71%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Levante29%not checked on its own yet
As many each19%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Sevilla52%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target81%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target56%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target30%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Levante: 4 or more64%not checked on its own yet
Sevilla: 4 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Levante54%not checked on its own yet
As many each13%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Sevilla32%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Roger Brugué 24%
Levante
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Brugué | 82 | 24% | 3% | 6% | 1.4 |
| Iván Romero | 79 | 21% | 2% | 5% | 1.1 |
| Adrián De la Fuente | 89 | 11% | 1% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 84 | 9% | 0% | 18% | 0.9 |
| Enzo Bardeli bench | 16 | 7% | 0% | 8% | 0.4 |
| Víctor García | 74 | 7% | 0% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Petar Ratkov bench | 10 | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Yanis Musuayi | 82 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Thiago Fernández bench | 16 | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 82 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Oriol Rey | 86 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Manuel Sánchez | 89 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Jeremy Toljan | 87 | 2% | 0% | 9% | 0.2 |
| Nacho Pérez bench | 15 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Paco Cortés bench | 9 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Mat Ryan | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ure | 81 | 14% | 1% | 7% | 1.3 |
| Isaac Romero bench | 10 | 10% | 0% | 3% | 0.9 |
| Miguel Sierra | 75 | 9% | 0% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Youssouf Fofana | 76 | 8% | 0% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Chidera Ejuke bench | 12 | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Felix Correia | 77 | 7% | 0% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Andrés Castrín | 87 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 64 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Jon Guridi bench | 8 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Lucien Agoume | 86 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.6 |
| Juan Iglesias | 89 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Kike Salas | 90 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Ruben Vargas bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| José Ángel Carmona bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Gabriel Suazo | 84 | 1% | 0% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Peque bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Arouna Sangante bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Manu Bueno bench | 9 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos | 90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check