Racing Santander v Valencia
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Racing Santander 40, draw 25, Valencia 35. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Racing Santander win | Draw | Valencia win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 33% | 24% | 34% | 43% |
| Valencia | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 41% | 48% | 41% | 31% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Racing Santander goals down, Valencia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yassir Zabiri | 41% | 7% | 2.5 |
| Sergio Canales | 13% | 7% | 1.6 |
| Pablo García | 12% | 4% | 1.3 |
| Asier Villalibre bench | 8% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Iñigo Vicente | 7% | 20% | 0.9 |
| Juan Carlos Arana bench | 6% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Iker Luque bench | 6% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Matteo Prati | 5% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Maguette Gueye bench | 5% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Andrés Martín bench | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Álvaro Mantilla | 4% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Iván Martín | 4% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Jorge Salinas | 3% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Íñigo Sainz-Maza bench | 3% | 3% | 0.3 |
| André Almeida bench | 2% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Manu Hernando | 2% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Gustavo Puerta bench | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Facu González | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Giorgi Guliashvili bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pablo Ramón bench | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Aarón Martín bench | 1% | 6% | 0.1 |
| Jeanuël Belocian bench | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pedro Felipe bench | <1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Julen Agirrezabala | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 23% | 13% | 2.2 |
| Hugo Duro | 18% | 3% | 0.9 |
| Javier Guerra | 13% | 14% | 1.5 |
| Pepelu | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Umar Sadiq bench | 10% | 3% | 0.6 |
| David Otorbi | 8% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Aaron Mayol bench | 7% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Filip Ugrinic | 6% | 13% | 1.3 |
| Aliou Dieng | 6% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Ryunosuke Sato bench | 5% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Arnau Martinez | 4% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Guido Rodríguez bench | 4% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby bench | 3% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Iker Córdoba bench | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Harvey Elliott bench | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| José Gayá | 2% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Luis Rioja bench | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Justin de Haas bench | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Pablo Maffeo | 1% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Jesús Vázquez bench | 1% | 3% | 0.3 |
| César Tárrega bench | <1% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Stole Dimitrievski | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



