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Racing Santander v Valencia

40%Racing Santander
25%Draw
35%Valencia

Too close to call.

Tested

Out of 100: Racing Santander 40, draw 25, Valencia 35. No result stands out.

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals59%
Both teams score62%
Expected goals1.6 v 1.5
Most likely score1-111% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Racing Santander4-2-3-13-5-2Valencia

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots14.711.6
Shots on target4.34.2
Corners5.15.4
Fouls12.612.5
Yellow cards2.12.5

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Racing Santander v Valencia changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowRacing Santander winDrawValencia win
Racing Santander
Bottom 333%24%34%43%
Valencia
Bottom 341%48%41%31%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals96%
2 or more goals80%
3 or more goals59%
4 or more goals37%
5 or more goals19%

Exactly

0 goals4%
1 goal15%
2 goals22%
3 goals21%
4 goals18%
5 goals10%
6 or more goals9%

Goals by team

Tested
Racing Santander: 1 or more80%
Racing Santander: 2 or more47%
Racing Santander: 3 or more21%
Valencia: 1 or more77%
Valencia: 2 or more43%
Valencia: 3 or more18%
Both teams score62%
At least one team does not score38%

Winning margin

Tested
Racing Santander by 3 or more8%
Racing Santander by 212%
Racing Santander by 120%
Draw25%
Valencia by 119%
Valencia by 210%
Valencia by 3 or more6%

Result combinations

Tested
Racing Santander win or draw65%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Valencia win or draw60%

Clean sheets

Tested
Racing Santander keep a clean sheet23%
Valencia keep a clean sheet20%
Racing Santander win without conceding18%
Valencia win without conceding16%
No goals at all4%

The first goal

Model estimate
Racing Santander score first50%
Valencia score first46%
No goals4%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1536%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Racing Santander goals down, Valencia goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
04.27.44.82.40.90.3
18.011.47.73.81.40.4
25.78.47.43.01.10.3
33.04.53.31.90.60.2
41.21.81.30.70.30.1
50.40.60.40.20.1·

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half74%
A goal in the second half82%
Racing Santander ahead at half-time33%
Level at half-time39%
Valencia ahead at half-time28%
Racing Santander win the second half35%
Second half level34%
Valencia win the second half31%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves23%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Racing Santander ahead at half-time, Racing Santander win24%
Level at half-time, Racing Santander win14%
Valencia ahead at half-time, Racing Santander win2%
Racing Santander ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Valencia ahead at half-time, draw6%
Racing Santander ahead at half-time, Valencia win3%
Level at half-time, Valencia win12%
Valencia ahead at half-time, Valencia win20%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Racing SantanderValencia

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Racing Santander
Racing Santander: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Yassir Zabiri6841%10%7%45%2.5
Sergio Canales7313%<1%7%20%1.6
Pablo García4512%<1%4%16%1.3
Asier Villalibre bench228%<1%4%12%0.5
Iñigo Vicente737%<1%20%26%0.9
Juan Carlos Arana bench136%<1%2%8%0.4
Iker Luque bench266%<1%4%9%0.6
Matteo Prati535%<1%5%10%0.8
Maguette Gueye bench195%<1%3%7%0.4
Andrés Martín bench124%<1%2%7%0.3
Álvaro Mantilla674%<1%3%7%0.4
Iván Martín724%<1%7%10%0.5
Jorge Salinas723%<1%4%7%0.4
Íñigo Sainz-Maza bench173%<1%3%6%0.3
André Almeida bench242%<1%5%7%0.3
Manu Hernando482%<1%2%5%0.4
Gustavo Puerta bench182%<1%3%5%0.3
Facu González482%<1%3%5%0.2
Giorgi Guliashvili bench102%<1%2%4%0.2
Pablo Ramón bench422%<1%2%4%0.3
Aarón Martín bench231%<1%6%7%0.1
Jeanuël Belocian bench421%<1%2%4%0.2
Pedro Felipe bench13<1%<1%2%3%0.1
Julen Agirrezabala90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Valencia
Valencia: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld7723%3%13%33%2.2
Hugo Duro3718%2%3%21%0.9
Javier Guerra8013%<1%14%25%1.5
Pepelu8010%<1%4%14%1.0
Umar Sadiq bench1810%<1%3%12%0.6
David Otorbi528%<1%7%14%1.0
Aaron Mayol bench367%<1%4%11%0.6
Filip Ugrinic816%<1%13%18%1.3
Aliou Dieng406%<1%4%10%0.5
Ryunosuke Sato bench305%<1%3%8%0.6
Arnau Martinez504%<1%4%8%0.4
Guido Rodríguez bench284%<1%1%5%0.4
Mouctar Diakhaby bench323%<1%1%4%0.3
Iker Córdoba bench193%<1%2%5%0.3
Harvey Elliott bench143%<1%2%5%0.3
José Gayá582%<1%5%7%0.4
Luis Rioja bench172%<1%3%5%0.3
Justin de Haas bench352%<1%2%4%0.3
Pablo Maffeo511%<1%3%5%0.2
Jesús Vázquez bench331%<1%3%4%0.3
César Tárrega bench28<1%<1%<1%1%0.2
Stole Dimitrievski90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0