La LigaVesta · published Mon 12 OctDeportivo La CorunaDeportivo
WDLDL8th · 10 pts
21:00
Kick-off · Fri 16 Oct
LevanteLevante
18th · 5 ptsDWDLL
45%Deportivo La Coruna win
27%Draw
28%Levante win
Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Deportivo La Coruna 5-3-2likely elevens4-5-1 Levante
Sent off in Deportivo La Coruna's last match: Lorenzo Amatucci. A ban is not certain from our data, so the likely line-up keeps him; What if takes him out.
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Deportivo La Coruna, just.
Deportivo La Coruna win about 45 times in 100. The other 55: a draw (27) or a Levante win (28).Every forecast ›1.7–1.3goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
58%three goals or more
63%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Deportivo La Coruna score first54%Deportivo win 70%
Levante score first42%Levante win 55%
Deportivo La Coruna score first, in the first 15 minutes18%Deportivo win 68%
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time36%Deportivo win 76%
Level at half-time39%Deportivo win 37%
Numbers to expectDeportivo La CorunaLevante
Shots14.912.1
Shots on target5.03.8
Corners5.84.3
Fouls12.110.6
Yellow cards2.02.0
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandDeportivo La Coruna first, Levante in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals5%not checked on its own yet
1 goal14%not checked on its own yet
2 goals24%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals18%not checked on its own yet
5 goals10%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals7%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Deportivo La Coruna by 3 or more9%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna by 214%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna by 122%not checked on its own yet
Draw27%not checked on its own yet
Levante by 117%not checked on its own yet
Levante by 28%not checked on its own yet
Levante by 3 or more4%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Deportivo La Coruna keep a clean sheet 25%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Deportivo La Coruna keep a clean sheet25%not checked on its own yet
Levante keep a clean sheet17%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna win without conceding20%not checked on its own yet
Levante win without conceding12%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all5%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners74%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners54%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners33%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Deportivo La Coruna: 6 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Levante: 4 or more59%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Deportivo La Coruna60%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Levante30%not checked on its own yet
Shots
25 or more shots 63%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
25 or more shots63%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots50%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Deportivo La Coruna: 15 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Levante: 12 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Deportivo La Coruna64%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Levante31%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
21 or more fouls 66%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more fouls66%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls50%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Deportivo La Coruna: 12 or more55%not checked on its own yet
Levante: 11 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Deportivo La Coruna58%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Levante34%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0564218138312710731345424121151
Deportivo La Coruna's goals down the side, Levante's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Deportivo La Coruna: 1 or more 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 82%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half74%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half82%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time35%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time39%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time25%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna win the second half38%not checked on its own yet
Second half level35%not checked on its own yet
Levante win the second half27%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half46%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves25%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time, Deportivo La Coruna win27%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Deportivo La Coruna win15%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time, Deportivo La Coruna win3%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw15%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time, Levante win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Levante win10%not checked on its own yet
Levante ahead at half-time, Levante win16%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Deportivo La Coruna score first 54%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Deportivo La Coruna score first54%not checked on its own yet
Levante score first42%not checked on its own yet
No goals5%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1535%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 56%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards90%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards56%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards21%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Deportivo La Coruna: 2 or more59%not checked on its own yet
Levante: 2 or more58%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Deportivo La Coruna40%not checked on its own yet
As many each21%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Levante39%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target76%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target52%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target28%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Deportivo La Coruna: 5 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Levante: 4 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Deportivo La Coruna59%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Levante29%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 23%
Deportivo La Coruna
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang bench | 33 | 23% | 3% | 8% | 1.1 |
| Bil Nsongo | 62 | 21% | 2% | 7% | 1.9 |
| Yeremay Hernández | 53 | 15% | 1% | 11% | 1.0 |
| Mario Soriano | 68 | 10% | 1% | 15% | 1.1 |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen bench | 23 | 9% | 0% | 3% | 0.7 |
| Riki Rodríguez | 47 | 9% | 0% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Luismi Cruz | 39 | 7% | 0% | 10% | 0.5 |
| Giménez | 69 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Lorenzo Amatucci bench | 59 | 6% | 0% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Diego Villares bench | 22 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Adama Traoré bench | 30 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Giacomo Quagliata | 68 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Bright Ede | 66 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| David Mella bench | 20 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Zakaria Eddahchouri bench | 13 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Lucas Pérez bench | 5 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Adrián bench | 5 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ximo Navarro | 46 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Adrià Alti | 40 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Marc Casadó bench | 17 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pedro Mosquera bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Zakaria Bakkali bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Teun Gijselhart bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Miguel Loureiro bench | 15 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Angelino bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lucas Noubi bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Leo Román | 81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Levante
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Brugué | 70 | 20% | 2% | 5% | 1.7 |
| Iván Romero | 52 | 18% | 2% | 4% | 1.4 |
| Adrián De la Fuente | 80 | 9% | 0% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Daniel Requena bench | 27 | 9% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 76 | 8% | 0% | 15% | 1.1 |
| Enzo Bardeli | 51 | 6% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Víctor García bench | 40 | 6% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Etta Eyong bench | 12 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Petar Ratkov bench | 13 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Thiago Fernández | 36 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 0.6 |
| Yanis Musuayi bench | 26 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Carlos Espí bench | 5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.2 |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe bench | 25 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Oriol Rey | 68 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Manuel Sánchez | 81 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Jeremy Toljan | 70 | 2% | 0% | 8% | 0.3 |
| Aissa Mandi | 55 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Nacho Pérez bench | 28 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Iker Losada bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Paco Cortés bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Hugo Sotelo bench | 18 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Marc Santos bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Kareem Tunde bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Pablo Martínez bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ugo Raghouber bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Mat Ryan | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check