Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Frosinone 5-4-1likely elevens4-3-3 Sassuolo
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Frosinone
Sassuolo
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Too close to call.
Out of 100: Frosinone 36, draw 27, Sassuolo 37. No result stands out.Every forecast ›1.5–1.6goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
60%three goals or more
65%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Frosinone score first47%Frosinone win 61%
Sassuolo score first49%Sassuolo win 63%
Frosinone score first, in the first 15 minutes16%Frosinone win 59%
Frosinone ahead at half-time30%Frosinone win 69%
Level at half-time38%Frosinone win 31%
Numbers to expectFrosinoneSassuolo
Shots16.213.6
Shots on target4.74.4
Corners5.64.3
Fouls12.311.3
Yellow cards1.92.1
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandFrosinone first, Sassuolo in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals4%not checked on its own yet
1 goal13%not checked on its own yet
2 goals23%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals18%not checked on its own yet
5 goals11%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals9%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Frosinone by 3 or more6%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone by 211%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone by 119%not checked on its own yet
Draw27%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo by 120%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo by 211%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo by 3 or more7%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Sassuolo keep a clean sheet 20%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Frosinone keep a clean sheet19%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo keep a clean sheet20%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone win without conceding15%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo win without conceding16%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all4%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners73%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners52%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Frosinone: 6 or more47%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo: 4 or more59%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Frosinone58%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Sassuolo31%not checked on its own yet
Shots
28 or more shots 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
28 or more shots61%not checked on its own yet
30 or more shots50%not checked on its own yet
32 or more shots38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Frosinone: 16 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo: 14 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Frosinone62%not checked on its own yet
As many each5%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Sassuolo33%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
22 or more fouls 65%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more fouls65%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls49%not checked on its own yet
26 or more fouls34%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Frosinone: 12 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo: 11 or more57%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Frosinone54%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Sassuolo38%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0465311613942259831324321412115
Frosinone's goals down the side, Sassuolo's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Sassuolo: 1 or more 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half74%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half83%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone ahead at half-time30%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time40%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo ahead at half-time30%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone win the second half32%not checked on its own yet
Second half level34%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo win the second half34%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half46%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves24%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Frosinone ahead at half-time, Frosinone win21%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Frosinone win13%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo ahead at half-time, Frosinone win3%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw14%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Frosinone ahead at half-time, Sassuolo win3%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Sassuolo win13%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo ahead at half-time, Sassuolo win21%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Sassuolo score first 48%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Frosinone score first48%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo score first48%not checked on its own yet
No goals4%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1535%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3023%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+4%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 57%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards91%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards57%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards22%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Frosinone: 2 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo: 2 or more62%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Frosinone35%not checked on its own yet
As many each21%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Sassuolo44%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target79%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target55%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Frosinone: 5 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Sassuolo: 4 or more63%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Frosinone47%not checked on its own yet
As many each13%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Sassuolo40%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Antonio Raimondo 26%
Frosinone
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Raimondo | 52 | 26% | 4% | 5% | 1.5 |
| Giorgi Kvernadze | 75 | 20% | 2% | 12% | 1.7 |
| Romano Schmid | 69 | 13% | 1% | 16% | 1.1 |
| Giacomo Calo | 74 | 11% | 1% | 11% | 1.2 |
| Farès Ghedjemis | 43 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Gabriele Bracaglia | 63 | 6% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Tomás Bobcek bench | 26 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Seydou Fini bench | 26 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Anthony Oyono | 74 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Patrizio Masini bench | 38 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Marvin Çuni bench | 8 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Gabriele Calvani | 74 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Matteo Cichella bench | 18 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Giorgio Cittadini | 59 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Aleksa Terzic | 40 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Luis Hasa bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Ilario Monterisi bench | 28 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Anouar El Azzouzi bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Francesco Gelli bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic bench | 8 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Alessio Zerbin bench | 20 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Matías Soulé bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Reinier bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Daniel Bîrligea bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Wisdom Amey bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Caleb Okoli bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kevin Bonifazi bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nadir Zortea bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Emanuele Valeri bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Lorenzo Palmisani | 78 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Michele Cerofolini bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenico Berardi | 70 | 22% | 3% | 12% | 2.2 |
| Armand Laurienté | 72 | 15% | 1% | 18% | 2.1 |
| Cas Odenthal | 65 | 14% | 1% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt | 59 | 13% | 1% | 6% | 1.1 |
| Kieron Bowie bench | 37 | 13% | 1% | 3% | 1.1 |
| Sebastiano Esposito | 43 | 10% | 1% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Vasilije Adzic bench | 30 | 10% | 0% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Darryl Bakola | 63 | 7% | 0% | 11% | 0.9 |
| Cristian Volpato bench | 17 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Duje Caleta-Car | 59 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| M'Bala Nzola bench | 8 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Josh Doig | 71 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Andrea Pinamonti bench | 7 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Nemanja Matic | 75 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Luca Lipani bench | 29 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Simone Cinquegrano bench | 35 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Laurs Skjellerup bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Benjamín Domínguez bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Ismaël Koné bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Sulemana bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt | 39 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Andrea Ghion bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Fedde Leysen bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rafael Obrador bench | 9 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ulisses García bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jay Idzes bench | 22 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Woyo Coulibaly bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Arijanet Muric | 79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Stefano Turati bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check