Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Angers 3-3-4likely elevens4-3-2-1 Marseille
Sent off in Angers's last match: Jordan Lefort. A ban is not certain from our data, so the likely line-up keeps him; What if takes him out.
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Angers
Marseille
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Angers
Marseille
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Marseille ahead.
Marseille win about 50 times in 100. The other 50: a draw (26) or an Angers win (24).Every forecast ›1.2–1.8goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 12%
59%three goals or more
63%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Angers score first38%Angers win 51%
Marseille score first57%Marseille win 73%
Angers score first, in the first 15 minutes13%Angers win 46%
Angers ahead at half-time23%Angers win 60%
Level at half-time38%Angers win 23%
Numbers to expectAngersMarseille
Shots12.715.0
Shots on target3.85.4
Corners4.45.2
Fouls10.512.0
Yellow cards1.81.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandAngers first, Marseille in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Marseille win or draw 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals5%not checked on its own yet
1 goal13%not checked on its own yet
2 goals23%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals18%not checked on its own yet
5 goals10%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals8%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 26%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Angers by 3 or more3%not checked on its own yet
Angers by 27%not checked on its own yet
Angers by 115%not checked on its own yet
Draw26%not checked on its own yet
Marseille by 123%not checked on its own yet
Marseille by 216%not checked on its own yet
Marseille by 3 or more12%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Marseille keep a clean sheet 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Angers keep a clean sheet15%not checked on its own yet
Marseille keep a clean sheet27%not checked on its own yet
Angers win without conceding10%not checked on its own yet
Marseille win without conceding23%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all5%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners70%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners48%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners28%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Angers: 4 or more60%not checked on its own yet
Marseille: 5 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Angers36%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Marseille53%not checked on its own yet
Shots
26 or more shots 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
26 or more shots61%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
30 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Angers: 13 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Marseille: 15 or more51%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Angers34%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Marseille61%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
20 or more fouls 72%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
20 or more fouls72%not checked on its own yet
22 or more fouls56%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls40%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Angers: 10 or more59%not checked on its own yet
Marseille: 12 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Angers34%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Marseille58%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
058842115121063123774213132214115
Angers's goals down the side, Marseille's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Marseille: 1 or more 85%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half75%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half83%not checked on its own yet
Angers ahead at half-time24%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time39%not checked on its own yet
Marseille ahead at half-time38%not checked on its own yet
Angers win the second half24%not checked on its own yet
Second half level34%not checked on its own yet
Marseille win the second half43%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half46%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves24%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Angers ahead at half-time, Angers win14%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Angers win9%not checked on its own yet
Marseille ahead at half-time, Angers win2%not checked on its own yet
Angers ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw14%not checked on its own yet
Marseille ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Angers ahead at half-time, Marseille win4%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Marseille win16%not checked on its own yet
Marseille ahead at half-time, Marseille win30%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Marseille score first 56%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Angers score first39%not checked on its own yet
Marseille score first56%not checked on its own yet
No goals5%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1535%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3023%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 87%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards87%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards48%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards15%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Angers: 2 or more53%not checked on its own yet
Marseille: 2 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Angers38%not checked on its own yet
As many each22%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Marseille40%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target79%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target56%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Angers: 4 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Marseille: 5 or more61%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Angers25%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Marseille64%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Amine Gouiri 30%
Angers
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prosper Peter | 43 | 20% | 2% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Amine El Ouazzani | 49 | 16% | 1% | 9% | 0.9 |
| Amine Sbaï | 72 | 14% | 1% | 11% | 1.1 |
| Jim Allevinah | 65 | 12% | 1% | 7% | 1.1 |
| Branco van den Boomen | 80 | 6% | 0% | 11% | 0.9 |
| Yassin Belkhdim | 54 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Djibirin Harouna bench | 14 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Mamadou Simbakoli bench | 15 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Maël Gernigon bench | 24 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Goduine Koyalipou bench | 7 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Lilian Raolisoa | 54 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.4 |
| Anthony Bermont bench | 13 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Lanroy Machine bench | 7 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Joseph Kalulu | 74 | 3% | 0% | 8% | 0.2 |
| Louis Mouton bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Emmanuel Biumla | 48 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Bané Diatta bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Haris Belkebla | 60 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Jordan Lefort bench | 67 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Ousmane Camara bench | 36 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Carlens Arcus bench | 33 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Marius Louãr bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Jacques Ekomie bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Anthony Lopes | 78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Florent Hanin bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Melvin Zinga bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Marseille
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri | 57 | 30% | 5% | 14% | 1.8 |
| Igor Paixão | 67 | 16% | 1% | 10% | 1.6 |
| Himad Abdelli | 68 | 13% | 1% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Neal Maupay bench | 37 | 12% | 1% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Angel Gomes | 54 | 12% | 1% | 6% | 0.8 |
| Amine Harit | 50 | 8% | 0% | 10% | 0.7 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 48 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Faris Moumbagna bench | 14 | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Keyliane Abdallah bench | 33 | 8% | 0% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Naif Aguerd | 71 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Mason Greenwood bench | 8 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko bench | 29 | 5% | 0% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Tochukwu Nnadi bench | 29 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Timothy Weah bench | 40 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang bench | 5 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Kelyann Bezahaf | 50 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Emerson | 79 | 2% | 0% | 14% | 0.5 |
| Tadjidine Mmadi bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Ange Lago bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| CJ Egan-Riley | 68 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.1 |
| Derek Cornelius bench | 12 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Quinten Timber bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ulisses García bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Arthur Vermeeren bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia bench | 12 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Leonardo Balerdi bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Facundo Medina bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Benjamin Pavard bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Gerónimo Rulli bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jeffrey de Lange | 79 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check