Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Le Havre 3-4-3likely elevens4-3-1-2 Auxerre
Sent off in Le Havre's last match: Ayumu Seko. A ban is not certain from our data, so the likely line-up keeps him; What if takes him out.
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Le Havre
Auxerre
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Le Havre
Auxerre
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Le Havre, just.
Le Havre win about 41 times in 100. The other 59: a draw (29) or an Auxerre win (30).Every forecast ›1.4–1.2goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 15%
49%three goals or more
56%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Le Havre score first51%Le Havre win 69%
Auxerre score first42%Auxerre win 59%
Le Havre score first, in the first 15 minutes15%Le Havre win 67%
Le Havre ahead at half-time33%Le Havre win 75%
Level at half-time42%Le Havre win 34%
Numbers to expectLe HavreAuxerre
Shots14.110.9
Shots on target4.73.9
Corners5.24.5
Fouls12.615.0
Yellow cards1.91.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandLe Havre first, Auxerre in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals7%not checked on its own yet
1 goal18%not checked on its own yet
2 goals27%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals15%not checked on its own yet
5 goals7%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals4%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 29%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Le Havre by 3 or more7%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre by 212%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre by 122%not checked on its own yet
Draw29%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre by 118%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre by 28%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre by 3 or more3%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Le Havre keep a clean sheet 29%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Le Havre keep a clean sheet29%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre keep a clean sheet22%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre win without conceding22%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre win without conceding15%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all7%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners71%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners49%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners29%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Havre: 5 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre: 4 or more61%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Le Havre53%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Auxerre36%not checked on its own yet
Shots
23 or more shots 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
23 or more shots64%not checked on its own yet
25 or more shots51%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Havre: 14 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre: 11 or more51%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Le Havre67%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Auxerre28%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
26 or more fouls 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
26 or more fouls64%not checked on its own yet
28 or more fouls50%not checked on its own yet
30 or more fouls35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Havre: 13 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre: 15 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Le Havre30%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Auxerre63%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
07852110158312796213343141115
Le Havre's goals down the side, Auxerre's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Le Havre: 1 or more 78%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half69%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half77%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre ahead at half-time33%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time43%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre ahead at half-time24%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre win the second half35%not checked on its own yet
Second half level37%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre win the second half28%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half44%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves27%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Le Havre ahead at half-time, Le Havre win24%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Le Havre win15%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre ahead at half-time, Le Havre win2%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw17%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Le Havre ahead at half-time, Auxerre win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Auxerre win11%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre ahead at half-time, Auxerre win17%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Le Havre score first 51%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Le Havre score first51%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre score first42%not checked on its own yet
No goals7%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6012%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 89%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards89%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards51%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards17%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Havre: 2 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre: 2 or more55%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Le Havre40%not checked on its own yet
As many each22%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Auxerre39%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target74%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target49%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target26%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Le Havre: 5 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Auxerre: 4 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Le Havre54%not checked on its own yet
As many each13%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Auxerre33%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Cameron Archer 29%
Le Havre
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbwana Samatta | 72 | 24% | 3% | 9% | 1.9 |
| Josh Maja | 52 | 20% | 2% | 9% | 1.2 |
| Sota Nakamura | 41 | 13% | 1% | 10% | 0.8 |
| Rayan Fofana bench | 22 | 12% | 1% | 2% | 0.7 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye | 65 | 9% | 0% | 10% | 0.9 |
| Amir Richardson | 73 | 8% | 0% | 10% | 0.9 |
| Simon Ebonog | 72 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Djibril Ouziad | 61 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Lamine N'Diaye | 51 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Ahmed Touba | 74 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Ayumu Seko bench | 67 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Kaito Mizuta bench | 16 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Issa Soumaré bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Fodé Doucouré bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Ismaïl Bouneb bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Junior Mwanga bench | 27 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Daren Mosengo bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Hakim Dongopandji bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Enzo Koffi bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Elias Jelert | 30 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Yassine Kechta bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Timothee Pembele bench | 17 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Sofiane Boufal bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Vincent Sasso bench | 16 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Yanis Zouaoui bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Loïc Négo bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Gauthier Gallon | 72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mory Diaw bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lionel Mpasi bench | 13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Archer | 70 | 29% | 5% | 6% | 1.5 |
| Danny Namaso | 74 | 15% | 1% | 9% | 1.6 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary bench | 32 | 10% | 1% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Kévin Danois | 80 | 5% | 0% | 8% | 0.8 |
| Romain Faivre | 54 | 5% | 0% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Lamine Sy | 77 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Aristide Zossou bench | 15 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Arthur Piedfort | 64 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Naouirou Ahamada | 54 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | 66 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Lassine Sinayoko bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Pierre Ekwah bench | 17 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Rayan Mandengue bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Fredrik Oppegård | 62 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Josué Casimir bench | 13 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Clément Akpa | 70 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Sékou Mara bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Youssef Khoudda bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lamfia Dioubaté bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Sinaly Diomande bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christ Makosso bench | 27 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Elikya Legros bench | 18 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lasso Coulibaly bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Marvin Senaya bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Elisha Owusu bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Gideon Mensah bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mamadou Diop | 78 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Donovan Léon bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Théo De Percin bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check