BundesligaVesta · published Mon 12 OctBorussia M.GladbachGladbach
LLLLL18th · 0 pts
17:30
Kick-off · Sun 18 Oct
HoffenheimHoffenheim
17th · 3 ptsLLWLL
33%Borussia M.Gladbach win
26%Draw
41%Hoffenheim win
Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Borussia M.Gladbach 3-4-2-1likely elevens3-5-2 Hoffenheim
Sent off in Hoffenheim's last match: Bernardo. A ban is not certain from our data, so the likely line-up keeps him; What if takes him out.
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Borussia M.Gladbach
Hoffenheim
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Borussia M.Gladbach
Hoffenheim
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Hoffenheim, just.
Hoffenheim win about 41 times in 100. The other 59: a draw (26) or a Borussia M.Gladbach win (33).Every forecast ›1.6–1.8goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 11%
66%three goals or more
69%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Borussia M.Gladbach score first45%Gladbach win 58%
Hoffenheim score first51%Hoffenheim win 64%
Borussia M.Gladbach score first, in the first 15 minutes16%Gladbach win 55%
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time29%Gladbach win 67%
Level at half-time36%Gladbach win 30%
Numbers to expectBorussia M.GladbachHoffenheim
Shots14.015.1
Shots on target4.75.3
Corners4.85.1
Fouls9.512.7
Yellow cards1.92.3
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandBorussia M.Gladbach first, Hoffenheim in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 86%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals3%not checked on its own yet
1 goal10%not checked on its own yet
2 goals21%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals20%not checked on its own yet
5 goals12%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals11%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 26%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Borussia M.Gladbach by 3 or more6%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach by 210%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach by 118%not checked on its own yet
Draw26%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim by 120%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim by 212%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim by 3 or more9%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet 19%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Borussia M.Gladbach keep a clean sheet15%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet19%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach win without conceding12%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim win without conceding15%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all3%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 72%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners72%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners51%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Borussia M.Gladbach: 5 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim: 5 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Borussia M.Gladbach42%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Hoffenheim47%not checked on its own yet
Shots
27 or more shots 63%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
27 or more shots63%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots52%not checked on its own yet
31 or more shots40%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Borussia M.Gladbach: 14 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim: 15 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Borussia M.Gladbach41%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Hoffenheim53%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
20 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
20 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
22 or more fouls54%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Borussia M.Gladbach: 10 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim: 13 or more50%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Borussia M.Gladbach22%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Hoffenheim71%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
036531151195212488421324421412115
Borussia M.Gladbach's goals down the side, Hoffenheim's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Hoffenheim: 1 or more 85%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 85%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half77%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half85%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time29%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time37%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim ahead at half-time34%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach win the second half31%not checked on its own yet
Second half level33%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim win the second half36%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half48%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves22%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time, Borussia M.Gladbach win19%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Borussia M.Gladbach win11%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim ahead at half-time, Borussia M.Gladbach win3%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw13%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Borussia M.Gladbach ahead at half-time, Hoffenheim win3%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Hoffenheim win13%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim ahead at half-time, Hoffenheim win25%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Hoffenheim score first 51%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Borussia M.Gladbach score first46%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim score first51%not checked on its own yet
No goals3%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1537%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3024%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+4%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 60%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards92%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards60%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards24%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Borussia M.Gladbach: 2 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim: 2 or more66%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Borussia M.Gladbach33%not checked on its own yet
As many each20%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Hoffenheim47%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
8 or more shots on target 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more shots on target76%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target53%not checked on its own yet
12 or more shots on target31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Borussia M.Gladbach: 5 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Hoffenheim: 5 or more60%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Borussia M.Gladbach37%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Hoffenheim51%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Tim Lemperle 21%
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Bolin | 67 | 19% | 2% | 9% | 1.5 |
| Isac Lidberg | 40 | 17% | 1% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Shuto Machino bench | 28 | 13% | 1% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Kevin Diks | 77 | 12% | 1% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Joe Scally | 79 | 9% | 0% | 7% | 0.4 |
| Robin Hack | 42 | 8% | 0% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Wael Mohya bench | 32 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Philipp Sander | 77 | 6% | 0% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Florian Neuhaus | 37 | 6% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Tim Kleindienst bench | 15 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Kevin Stöger bench | 30 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Franck Honorat bench | 42 | 4% | 0% | 15% | 0.5 |
| Ko Itakura bench | 33 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Zento Uno bench | 19 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Lukas Ullrich | 64 | 3% | 0% | 8% | 0.4 |
| Haris Tabakovic bench | 6 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Jan Leszczynski | 55 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Daiki Hashioka | 45 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Fritz Fleck bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Mathieu Nguefack bench | 13 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Giovanni Reyna bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Fabio Chiarodia bench | 17 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Nicolas Kühn bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Yannick Engelhardt bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| David Herold bench | 15 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rocco Reitz bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Kota Takai bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nico Elvedi bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Moritz Nicolas | 83 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Lemperle | 56 | 21% | 2% | 6% | 1.6 |
| Adam Hlozek | 38 | 20% | 2% | 4% | 1.2 |
| Andrej Kramaric bench | 40 | 17% | 2% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Ozan Kabak | 81 | 14% | 1% | 3% | 0.9 |
| Bambasé Conté | 66 | 13% | 1% | 12% | 1.6 |
| Fisnik Asllani | 42 | 13% | 1% | 9% | 1.2 |
| Adam Daghim | 64 | 12% | 1% | 15% | 1.1 |
| Wouter Burger | 76 | 10% | 1% | 13% | 1.1 |
| Max Moerstedt bench | 18 | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Patrick Wimmer bench | 18 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Leon Avdullahu | 80 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Vladimir Coufal | 80 | 3% | 0% | 16% | 0.5 |
| Grischa Prömel bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Albian Hajdari bench | 42 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Alexander Prass bench | 20 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Koki Machida | 43 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Robin Hranác bench | 22 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Valentin Gendrey bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Nathan De Cat bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Bazoumana Touré bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Bernardo bench | 49 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Mats Rots bench | 22 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Cole Campbell bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Oliver Baumann | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check