BundesligaVesta · published Mon 12 OctBayer LeverkusenLeverkusen
LWDWW4th · 10 pts
15:30
Kick-off · Sun 18 Oct
FreiburgFreiburg
1st · 13 ptsWWWDW
57%Bayer Leverkusen win
24%Draw
19%Freiburg win
Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1likely elevens4-2-3-1 Freiburg
Sent off in Freiburg's last match: Yuito Suzuki. A ban is not certain from our data, so the likely line-up keeps him; What if takes him out.
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Bayer Leverkusen ahead.
Bayer Leverkusen win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (24) or a Freiburg win (19).Every forecast ›2.0–1.2goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 11%
62%three goals or more
62%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Bayer Leverkusen score first62%Leverkusen win 77%
Freiburg score first34%Freiburg win 45%
Bayer Leverkusen score first, in the first 15 minutes22%Leverkusen win 77%
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time44%Leverkusen win 83%
Level at half-time36%Leverkusen win 46%
Numbers to expectBayer LeverkusenFreiburg
Shots17.111.6
Shots on target5.63.9
Corners6.13.5
Fouls10.910.1
Yellow cards1.82.0
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandBayer Leverkusen first, Freiburg in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Bayer Leverkusen win or draw 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 84%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals4%not checked on its own yet
1 goal12%not checked on its own yet
2 goals22%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals19%not checked on its own yet
5 goals11%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals9%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 24%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Bayer Leverkusen by 3 or more16%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen by 218%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen by 123%not checked on its own yet
Draw24%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg by 112%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg by 25%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet 30%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet30%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg keep a clean sheet12%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen win without conceding26%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg win without conceding8%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all4%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners70%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners48%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners29%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Bayer Leverkusen: 6 or more54%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg: 3 or more64%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Bayer Leverkusen72%not checked on its own yet
As many each9%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Freiburg19%not checked on its own yet
Shots
27 or more shots 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
27 or more shots61%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
31 or more shots38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Bayer Leverkusen: 17 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Bayer Leverkusen77%not checked on its own yet
As many each4%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Freiburg19%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
19 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
19 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
21 or more fouls53%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls36%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Bayer Leverkusen: 11 or more53%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg: 10 or more55%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Bayer Leverkusen53%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Freiburg39%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
044211811621281172136742433215111
Bayer Leverkusen's goals down the side, Freiburg's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Bayer Leverkusen: 1 or more 88%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half76%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half83%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time43%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time37%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg ahead at half-time20%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen win the second half48%not checked on its own yet
Second half level32%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg win the second half20%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half29%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half47%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves24%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time, Bayer Leverkusen win36%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Bayer Leverkusen win17%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg ahead at half-time, Bayer Leverkusen win4%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw12%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time, Freiburg win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Freiburg win7%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg ahead at half-time, Freiburg win11%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Bayer Leverkusen score first 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Bayer Leverkusen score first61%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg score first35%not checked on its own yet
No goals4%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1536%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3023%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+4%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 89%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards89%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards52%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards18%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Bayer Leverkusen: 2 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg: 2 or more60%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Bayer Leverkusen34%not checked on its own yet
As many each21%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Freiburg45%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
8 or more shots on target 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more shots on target73%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target49%not checked on its own yet
12 or more shots on target27%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Bayer Leverkusen: 6 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Freiburg: 4 or more55%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Bayer Leverkusen64%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Freiburg25%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Patrik Schick 45%
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | 70 | 45% | 12% | 11% | 2.1 |
| Ibrahim Maza | 66 | 15% | 1% | 14% | 1.5 |
| Moussa Diaby | 58 | 13% | 1% | 9% | 1.1 |
| Christian Kofane bench | 24 | 12% | 1% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Afonso Moreira | 64 | 11% | 1% | 16% | 1.1 |
| Jarell Quansah | 80 | 11% | 1% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Edmond Tapsoba | 80 | 10% | 1% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Malik Tillman bench | 31 | 8% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Aleix García | 77 | 7% | 0% | 15% | 0.7 |
| Martin Terrier bench | 19 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Nathan Tella bench | 21 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Robert Andrich | 61 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez | 70 | 4% | 0% | 11% | 0.6 |
| Facundo Medina | 69 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Ezequiél Fernández bench | 30 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Jonas Hofmann bench | 15 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Victor Boniface bench | 5 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Álex Grimaldo bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Lucas Vázquez bench | 15 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.1 |
| Ernest Poku bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Montrell Culbreath bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Guela Doué bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Arthur bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ben Seghir bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Loic Bade bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Exequiel Palacios bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Mark Flekken | 81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Janis Blaswich bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Freiburg
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Matanovic | 66 | 27% | 4% | 8% | 1.6 |
| Derry Scherhant | 68 | 13% | 1% | 9% | 1.3 |
| Yuito Suzuki bench | 55 | 11% | 1% | 6% | 0.9 |
| Maximilian Eggestein | 81 | 10% | 0% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | 62 | 8% | 0% | 11% | 0.7 |
| Yannick Engelhardt | 58 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Lucas Höler | 34 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Vincenzo Grifo bench | 25 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Matthias Ginter | 79 | 5% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Keisuke Goto bench | 22 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Philipp Lienhart | 74 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Philipp Treu | 73 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Cyriaque Irié bench | 20 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Lukas Kübler bench | 28 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Jordy Makengo | 74 | 1% | 0% | 7% | 0.1 |
| Johan Manzambi bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Berkay Yilmaz bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Nicolas Höfler bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Bruno Ogbus bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Anthony Jung bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Rosenfelder bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Atubolu bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mio Backhaus | 77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check