Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Juventus 4-2-3-1likely elevens4-3-3 Lazio
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Juventus
Lazio
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Juventus
Lazio
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Juventus ahead.
Juventus win about 54 times in 100. The other 46: a draw (27) or a Lazio win (19).Every forecast ›1.6–0.9goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 14%
45%three goals or more
49%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Juventus score first60%Juventus win 79%
Lazio score first32%Lazio win 50%
Juventus score first, in the first 15 minutes18%Juventus win 78%
Juventus ahead at half-time40%Juventus win 84%
Level at half-time42%Juventus win 42%
Numbers to expectJuventusLazio
Shots17.38.5
Shots on target5.53.0
Corners5.93.2
Fouls12.710.8
Yellow cards1.92.1
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandJuventus first, Lazio in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Juventus win or draw 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 72%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals8%not checked on its own yet
1 goal19%not checked on its own yet
2 goals27%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals14%not checked on its own yet
5 goals6%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals3%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Juventus by 3 or more12%not checked on its own yet
Juventus by 217%not checked on its own yet
Juventus by 125%not checked on its own yet
Draw27%not checked on its own yet
Lazio by 113%not checked on its own yet
Lazio by 24%not checked on its own yet
Lazio by 3 or more1%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Juventus keep a clean sheet 41%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Juventus keep a clean sheet41%not checked on its own yet
Lazio keep a clean sheet19%not checked on its own yet
Juventus win without conceding32%not checked on its own yet
Lazio win without conceding10%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all8%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners75%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners53%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Juventus: 6 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Lazio: 3 or more59%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Juventus73%not checked on its own yet
As many each9%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Lazio18%not checked on its own yet
Shots
24 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
24 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Juventus: 17 or more53%not checked on its own yet
Lazio: 8 or more58%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Juventus91%not checked on its own yet
As many each2%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Lazio7%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
22 or more fouls 65%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more fouls65%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls49%not checked on its own yet
26 or more fouls34%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Juventus: 13 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Lazio: 11 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Juventus61%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Lazio31%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0873111314512111051365214221511
Juventus's goals down the side, Lazio's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Juventus: 1 or more 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half67%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half75%not checked on its own yet
Juventus ahead at half-time39%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time43%not checked on its own yet
Lazio ahead at half-time18%not checked on its own yet
Juventus win the second half44%not checked on its own yet
Second half level37%not checked on its own yet
Lazio win the second half19%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half42%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves28%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Juventus ahead at half-time, Juventus win33%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Juventus win18%not checked on its own yet
Lazio ahead at half-time, Juventus win3%not checked on its own yet
Juventus ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw17%not checked on its own yet
Lazio ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Juventus ahead at half-time, Lazio win1%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Lazio win8%not checked on its own yet
Lazio ahead at half-time, Lazio win10%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Juventus score first 59%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Juventus score first59%not checked on its own yet
Lazio score first32%not checked on its own yet
No goals8%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3021%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 57%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards91%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards57%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards22%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Juventus: 2 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Lazio: 2 or more63%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Juventus35%not checked on its own yet
As many each20%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Lazio45%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target73%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target47%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target25%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Juventus: 6 or more47%not checked on its own yet
Lazio: 3 or more57%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Juventus75%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Lazio16%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Randal Kolo Muani 15%
Juventus
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randal Kolo Muani | 64 | 15% | 1% | 6% | 1.1 |
| Francisco Conceição | 46 | 13% | 1% | 8% | 1.2 |
| Nicolás González | 39 | 12% | 1% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Edon Zhegrova bench | 45 | 12% | 1% | 10% | 1.3 |
| Nick Woltemade bench | 28 | 12% | 1% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Bremer | 78 | 11% | 1% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Weston McKennie bench | 33 | 8% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Pape Sarr | 52 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0.7 |
| Kerim-Sam Alajbegovic | 50 | 7% | 0% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Douglas Luiz | 60 | 6% | 0% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Jeremie Boga bench | 16 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Jonathan David bench | 9 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Dusan Vlahovic bench | 7 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Andrea Cambiaso bench | 38 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.3 |
| Jhon Lucumí | 69 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Teun Koopmeiners bench | 33 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 80 | 3% | 0% | 9% | 0.2 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 54 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Federico Gatti bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Kenan Yildiz bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Manuel Locatelli bench | 16 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Justin Oboavwoduo bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Fabio Miretti bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lloyd Kelly bench | 28 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Kephren Thuram bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Emil Holm bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Guglielmo Vicario | 78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Michele Di Gregorio bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Noslin | 60 | 13% | 1% | 7% | 1.2 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | 71 | 11% | 1% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Gustav Isaksen | 53 | 10% | 1% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Davide Frattesi | 49 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Matteo Cancellieri bench | 36 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Kenneth Taylor | 73 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Andrea Pinamonti bench | 22 | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Reda Belahyane | 70 | 3% | 0% | 6% | 0.3 |
| Nuno Tavares | 64 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Danilho Doekhi bench | 29 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Albert Gudmundsson bench | 15 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Boulaye Dia bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru bench | 35 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Pedro bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Daniel Maldini bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Oliver Provstgaard | 66 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Josip Sutalo | 47 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Romano Floriani | 64 | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Alfonso bench | 22 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Diogo Leite bench | 34 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Nicolo Rovella bench | 10 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Patric bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Manuel Lazzari bench | 17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Adam Marusic bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christos Mandas | 78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Edoardo Motta bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alessio Furlanetto bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check