Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
AC Milan 3-5-2likely elevens4-3-3 Atalanta
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
AC Milan
Atalanta
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
AC Milan
Atalanta
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
AC Milan ahead.
AC Milan win about 50 times in 100. The other 50: a draw (27) or an Atalanta win (23).Every forecast ›1.7–1.1goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
53%three goals or more
58%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
AC Milan score first57%AC Milan win 74%
Atalanta score first37%Atalanta win 52%
AC Milan score first, in the first 15 minutes18%AC Milan win 73%
AC Milan ahead at half-time38%AC Milan win 80%
Level at half-time40%AC Milan win 40%
Numbers to expectAC MilanAtalanta
Shots15.010.7
Shots on target4.83.5
Corners4.83.6
Fouls9.411.6
Yellow cards1.41.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandAC Milan first, Atalanta in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
AC Milan win or draw 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals6%not checked on its own yet
1 goal16%not checked on its own yet
2 goals25%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals16%not checked on its own yet
5 goals9%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals6%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
AC Milan by 3 or more11%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan by 215%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan by 123%not checked on its own yet
Draw27%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta by 115%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta by 26%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
AC Milan keep a clean sheet 31%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
AC Milan keep a clean sheet31%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta keep a clean sheet17%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan win without conceding25%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta win without conceding11%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all6%not checked on its own yet
Corners
6 or more corners 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more corners80%not checked on its own yet
8 or more corners58%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
AC Milan: 5 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta: 4 or more47%not checked on its own yet
More corners for AC Milan57%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Atalanta31%not checked on its own yet
Shots
24 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
24 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
AC Milan: 15 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta: 11 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More shots for AC Milan73%not checked on its own yet
As many each5%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Atalanta22%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
19 or more fouls 69%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
19 or more fouls69%not checked on its own yet
21 or more fouls52%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls36%not checked on its own yet
Each side
AC Milan: 9 or more59%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta: 12 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for AC Milan28%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Atalanta64%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0663111013721281062356314221511
AC Milan's goals down the side, Atalanta's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
AC Milan: 1 or more 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half72%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half79%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan ahead at half-time38%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time41%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time21%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan win the second half41%not checked on its own yet
Second half level36%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta win the second half23%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half45%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves25%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
AC Milan ahead at half-time, AC Milan win31%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, AC Milan win16%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time, AC Milan win3%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw16%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
AC Milan ahead at half-time, Atalanta win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Atalanta win9%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta ahead at half-time, Atalanta win12%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
AC Milan score first 57%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
AC Milan score first57%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta score first37%not checked on its own yet
No goals6%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1533%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+17%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
3 or more yellow cards 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
1 or more yellow cards96%not checked on its own yet
3 or more yellow cards61%not checked on its own yet
5 or more yellow cards21%not checked on its own yet
Each side
AC Milan: 1 or more74%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta: 2 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for AC Milan29%not checked on its own yet
As many each23%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Atalanta48%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 82%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target82%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target58%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target33%not checked on its own yet
Each side
AC Milan: 5 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Atalanta: 3 or more66%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for AC Milan61%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Atalanta26%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Gonçalo Ramos 29%
AC Milan
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Ramos | 69 | 29% | 5% | 7% | 2.3 |
| Christian Pulisic | 52 | 21% | 2% | 13% | 1.2 |
| Adrien Rabiot | 80 | 14% | 1% | 11% | 1.2 |
| Samuel Chukwueze | 67 | 9% | 0% | 15% | 1.2 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic | 79 | 9% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Diego Moreira | 54 | 9% | 0% | 13% | 0.7 |
| Yunus Musah | 53 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek bench | 27 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Koni de Winter | 83 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Alphadjo Cissè bench | 21 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Christopher Nkunku bench | 6 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Luka Modric | 63 | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Niclas Füllkrug bench | 9 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers bench | 31 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Francesco Camarda bench | 11 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Mario Gila | 69 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Rafael Leão bench | 6 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Santiago Giménez bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Estupiñán bench | 39 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Ardon Jashari bench | 23 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Omari Hutchinson bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Davide Bartesaghi bench | 24 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Youssouf Fofana bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Zachary Athekame bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Samuele Ricci bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Matteo Gabbia bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Filippo Terracciano bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mike Maignan | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic bench | 47 | 18% | 2% | 5% | 1.6 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 43 | 14% | 1% | 3% | 1.2 |
| Giacomo Raspadori bench | 45 | 10% | 1% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Jonathan Rowe | 49 | 9% | 0% | 4% | 1.2 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 72 | 9% | 0% | 15% | 1.1 |
| Éderson | 74 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Giorgio Scalvini | 73 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Lazar Samardzic | 43 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.8 |
| Franck Kessié | 40 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Mario Pasalic bench | 28 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Eljif Elmas bench | 20 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 50 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Gianluca Gaetano bench | 32 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Davide Zappacosta bench | 27 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Nicola Zalewski bench | 21 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Raoul Bellanova | 65 | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Odilon Kossounou bench | 34 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi | 52 | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Honest Ahanor bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Sead Kolasinac bench | 34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Yunus Musah bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isak Hien bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Berat Gjimshiti bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marten de Roon bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marco Carnesecchi | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check