Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Lyon 4-3-2-1likely elevens3-4-2-1 Nice
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Lyon
Nice
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Lyon
Nice
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Lyon ahead.
Lyon win about 60 times in 100. The other 40: a draw (24) or a Nice win (16).Every forecast ›1.9–0.9goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 12%
56%three goals or more
55%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Lyon score first64%Lyon win 81%
Nice score first31%Nice win 43%
Lyon score first, in the first 15 minutes21%Lyon win 81%
Lyon ahead at half-time46%Lyon win 86%
Level at half-time38%Lyon win 48%
Numbers to expectLyonNice
Shots15.610.1
Shots on target5.53.2
Corners6.14.2
Fouls10.712.6
Yellow cards1.62.2
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandLyon first, Nice in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Lyon win or draw 84%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals5%not checked on its own yet
1 goal15%not checked on its own yet
2 goals24%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals17%not checked on its own yet
5 goals9%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals7%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Lyon by 1 24%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Lyon by 3 or more17%not checked on its own yet
Lyon by 219%not checked on its own yet
Lyon by 124%not checked on its own yet
Draw24%not checked on its own yet
Nice by 111%not checked on its own yet
Nice by 24%not checked on its own yet
Nice by 3 or more1%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Lyon keep a clean sheet 37%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Lyon keep a clean sheet37%not checked on its own yet
Nice keep a clean sheet13%not checked on its own yet
Lyon win without conceding32%not checked on its own yet
Nice win without conceding7%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all5%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners75%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners55%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lyon: 6 or more54%not checked on its own yet
Nice: 4 or more57%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Lyon64%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Nice26%not checked on its own yet
Shots
24 or more shots 61%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
24 or more shots61%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lyon: 16 or more47%not checked on its own yet
Nice: 10 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Lyon78%not checked on its own yet
As many each5%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Nice17%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
21 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls55%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lyon: 11 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Nice: 13 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Lyon31%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Nice61%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
05421110125121111513773143315111
Lyon's goals down the side, Nice's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Lyon: 1 or more 87%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half73%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half80%not checked on its own yet
Lyon ahead at half-time46%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time38%not checked on its own yet
Nice ahead at half-time16%not checked on its own yet
Lyon win the second half49%not checked on its own yet
Second half level34%not checked on its own yet
Nice win the second half18%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half31%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half45%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves25%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Lyon ahead at half-time, Lyon win39%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Lyon win18%not checked on its own yet
Nice ahead at half-time, Lyon win3%not checked on its own yet
Lyon ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw14%not checked on its own yet
Nice ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Lyon ahead at half-time, Nice win1%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Nice win6%not checked on its own yet
Nice ahead at half-time, Nice win9%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Lyon score first 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Lyon score first64%not checked on its own yet
Nice score first31%not checked on its own yet
No goals5%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1534%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+17%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 89%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards89%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards52%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards18%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lyon: 2 or more47%not checked on its own yet
Nice: 2 or more64%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Lyon28%not checked on its own yet
As many each21%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Nice51%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target76%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target51%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target27%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lyon: 6 or more47%not checked on its own yet
Nice: 3 or more62%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Lyon71%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Nice18%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Corentin Tolisso 26%
Lyon
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso | 77 | 26% | 4% | 17% | 1.5 |
| Pavel Sulc | 63 | 24% | 3% | 16% | 1.4 |
| Ernest Nuamah | 53 | 19% | 2% | 11% | 1.3 |
| Loïs Openda | 42 | 19% | 2% | 6% | 1.4 |
| Kail Boudache bench | 28 | 12% | 1% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Zachary Athekame | 65 | 9% | 0% | 14% | 0.6 |
| Noah Nartey bench | 35 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Felix Bacher | 76 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Abner | 76 | 7% | 0% | 9% | 0.4 |
| Tyler Morton | 72 | 6% | 0% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Mads Bidstrup | 46 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Keito Nakamura bench | 29 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Roman Yaremchuk bench | 8 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Ruben Kluivert | 50 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Malick Fofana bench | 11 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Khalis Merah bench | 22 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Tanner Tessmann bench | 20 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Endrick bench | 5 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Afonso Moreira bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Moussa Niakhate bench | 45 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Clinton Mata bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dominik Greif | 82 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
Nice
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Amoura | 62 | 15% | 1% | 6% | 1.5 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi | 60 | 15% | 1% | 4% | 1.4 |
| Gauthier Hein | 72 | 11% | 1% | 9% | 1.1 |
| Sofiane Diop bench | 39 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Hichem Boudaoui | 60 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Axel Witsel | 68 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Jonathan Clauss | 78 | 4% | 0% | 11% | 0.9 |
| Mohamed Abdelmonem | 71 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Ali Abdi bench | 20 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Kevin Omoruyi bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.2 |
| Niels Nkounkou | 61 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Djibril Coulibaly bench | 27 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Xavier Mandza | 75 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Isak Jansson bench | 13 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye | 69 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Kail Boudache bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Nathan N'Goumou Minpol bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Everton Pereira bench | 12 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Tom Louchet bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Antoine Mendy bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Aboulaye Camara bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Melvin Bard bench | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alidu Seidu bench | 12 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Charles Vanhoutte bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Yehvann Diouf | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check