Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Paris FC 4-2-3-1likely elevens4-3-3 Rennes
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Paris FC
Rennes
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Paris FC
Rennes
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Paris FC, just.
Paris FC win about 47 times in 100. The other 53: a draw (27) or a Rennes win (26).Every forecast ›1.7–1.2goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
56%three goals or more
61%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Paris FC score first55%Paris FC win 72%
Rennes score first40%Rennes win 54%
Paris FC score first, in the first 15 minutes18%Paris FC win 70%
Paris FC ahead at half-time37%Paris FC win 78%
Level at half-time39%Paris FC win 39%
Numbers to expectParis FCRennes
Shots14.812.2
Shots on target5.14.0
Corners5.14.6
Fouls11.511.5
Yellow cards2.01.6
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandParis FC first, Rennes in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Paris FC win or draw 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals5%not checked on its own yet
1 goal14%not checked on its own yet
2 goals24%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals17%not checked on its own yet
5 goals9%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals7%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Paris FC by 3 or more10%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC by 215%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC by 123%not checked on its own yet
Draw27%not checked on its own yet
Rennes by 116%not checked on its own yet
Rennes by 27%not checked on its own yet
Rennes by 3 or more3%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Paris FC keep a clean sheet 28%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Paris FC keep a clean sheet28%not checked on its own yet
Rennes keep a clean sheet17%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC win without conceding22%not checked on its own yet
Rennes win without conceding12%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all5%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners71%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners49%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners29%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Paris FC: 5 or more54%not checked on its own yet
Rennes: 5 or more47%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Paris FC49%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Rennes39%not checked on its own yet
Shots
25 or more shots 63%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
25 or more shots63%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots51%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Paris FC: 15 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Rennes: 12 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Paris FC62%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Rennes32%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
21 or more fouls 68%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more fouls68%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls53%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Paris FC: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Rennes: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Paris FC46%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Rennes46%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0564118137312810721346314221151
Paris FC's goals down the side, Rennes's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Paris FC: 1 or more 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half72%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half81%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC ahead at half-time36%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time41%not checked on its own yet
Rennes ahead at half-time23%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC win the second half40%not checked on its own yet
Second half level35%not checked on its own yet
Rennes win the second half25%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half45%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves25%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Paris FC ahead at half-time, Paris FC win29%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Paris FC win16%not checked on its own yet
Rennes ahead at half-time, Paris FC win3%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw15%not checked on its own yet
Rennes ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Paris FC ahead at half-time, Rennes win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Rennes win10%not checked on its own yet
Rennes ahead at half-time, Rennes win14%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Paris FC score first 55%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Paris FC score first55%not checked on its own yet
Rennes score first40%not checked on its own yet
No goals5%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1534%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 87%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards87%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards49%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards16%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Paris FC: 2 or more58%not checked on its own yet
Rennes: 2 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Paris FC45%not checked on its own yet
As many each22%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Rennes33%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target79%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target55%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Paris FC: 5 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Rennes: 4 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Paris FC57%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Rennes31%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Lassine Sinayoko 30%
Paris FC
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko | 72 | 30% | 5% | 10% | 2.1 |
| Pablo Pagis | 64 | 20% | 2% | 14% | 1.6 |
| Luca Koleosho | 68 | 18% | 2% | 13% | 1.5 |
| Ilan Kebbal | 63 | 16% | 1% | 11% | 1.1 |
| Zabi Gueu bench | 27 | 7% | 0% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Rudy Matondo bench | 40 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou | 73 | 6% | 0% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Samir Chergui | 47 | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Jonathan Ikone bench | 18 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Maxime Lopez | 75 | 4% | 0% | 13% | 0.5 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso bench | 11 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Adama Camara | 60 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Vincent Marchetti bench | 13 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Moses Simon bench | 22 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Omar Sissoko bench | 17 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Alimami Gory bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ciro Immobile bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Diego Coppola | 81 | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Hamari Traore | 68 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Otávio bench | 34 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Mamadou Mbow bench | 26 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Thibault De Smet bench | 12 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Kevin Trapp | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Lepaul | 65 | 23% | 3% | 5% | 1.8 |
| Issa Soumaré | 53 | 13% | 1% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Mousa Al Tamari | 52 | 8% | 0% | 7% | 1.2 |
| Adrien Thomasson | 54 | 8% | 0% | 9% | 0.8 |
| Ludovic Blas bench | 38 | 7% | 0% | 8% | 0.9 |
| Charlie Cresswell | 74 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Mahdi Camara | 76 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Anthony Rouault | 67 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Eliezer Mayenda bench | 28 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Boulaye Dia bench | 22 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Valentin Rongier | 79 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Breel Embolo bench | 8 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Arnaud Nordin bench | 18 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Mahamadou Nagida | 63 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.6 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 52 | 2% | 0% | 6% | 0.1 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal bench | 26 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Quentin Merlin bench | 33 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Djaoui Cissé bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski bench | 29 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Sebastian Szymanski bench | 17 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Nordan Mukiele bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Olakunle Olusegun bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Alidu Seidu bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brice Samba | 79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nicolas Lemaitre bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check