Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Udinese 3-4-2-1likely elevens4-3-3 Lecce
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Udinese
Lecce
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Udinese
Lecce
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Udinese ahead.
Udinese win about 54 times in 100. The other 46: a draw (26) or a Lecce win (20).Every forecast ›1.8–1.0goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
52%three goals or more
55%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Udinese score first60%Udinese win 78%
Lecce score first34%Lecce win 48%
Udinese score first, in the first 15 minutes19%Udinese win 77%
Udinese ahead at half-time41%Udinese win 83%
Level at half-time40%Udinese win 43%
Numbers to expectUdineseLecce
Shots14.710.4
Shots on target5.13.1
Corners5.53.7
Fouls12.111.2
Yellow cards1.51.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandUdinese first, Lecce in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Udinese win or draw 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 78%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals6%not checked on its own yet
1 goal16%not checked on its own yet
2 goals26%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals16%not checked on its own yet
5 goals8%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals5%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 26%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Udinese by 3 or more13%not checked on its own yet
Udinese by 217%not checked on its own yet
Udinese by 124%not checked on its own yet
Draw26%not checked on its own yet
Lecce by 113%not checked on its own yet
Lecce by 25%not checked on its own yet
Lecce by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Udinese keep a clean sheet 35%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Udinese keep a clean sheet35%not checked on its own yet
Lecce keep a clean sheet16%not checked on its own yet
Udinese win without conceding29%not checked on its own yet
Lecce win without conceding10%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all6%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners77%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners55%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners34%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Udinese: 6 or more46%not checked on its own yet
Lecce: 4 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Udinese64%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Lecce25%not checked on its own yet
Shots
23 or more shots 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
23 or more shots64%not checked on its own yet
25 or more shots51%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Udinese: 15 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Lecce: 10 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Udinese73%not checked on its own yet
As many each5%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Lecce22%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
21 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
23 or more fouls55%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Udinese: 12 or more54%not checked on its own yet
Lecce: 11 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Udinese53%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Lecce39%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0663111013622101062366314221511
Udinese's goals down the side, Lecce's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Udinese: 1 or more 84%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half71%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half79%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time40%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time41%not checked on its own yet
Lecce ahead at half-time19%not checked on its own yet
Udinese win the second half44%not checked on its own yet
Second half level35%not checked on its own yet
Lecce win the second half20%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half45%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves26%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Udinese ahead at half-time, Udinese win33%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Udinese win18%not checked on its own yet
Lecce ahead at half-time, Udinese win3%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw16%not checked on its own yet
Lecce ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Udinese ahead at half-time, Lecce win1%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Lecce win8%not checked on its own yet
Lecce ahead at half-time, Lecce win11%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Udinese score first 60%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Udinese score first60%not checked on its own yet
Lecce score first34%not checked on its own yet
No goals6%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1532%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
3 or more yellow cards 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
1 or more yellow cards96%not checked on its own yet
3 or more yellow cards64%not checked on its own yet
5 or more yellow cards23%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Udinese: 2 or more45%not checked on its own yet
Lecce: 2 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Udinese33%not checked on its own yet
As many each23%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Lecce44%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 82%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target82%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target58%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Udinese: 5 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Lecce: 3 or more60%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Udinese69%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Lecce20%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Idrissa Gueye 30%
Udinese
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idrissa Gueye | 58 | 30% | 5% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 70 | 18% | 2% | 11% | 1.1 |
| Keinan Davis bench | 27 | 14% | 1% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Vakoun Bayo bench | 22 | 10% | 1% | 6% | 0.6 |
| James Abankwah | 72 | 9% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Giorgi Chakvetadze | 40 | 8% | 0% | 7% | 0.9 |
| Unai Gómez | 36 | 8% | 0% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo bench | 21 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Mergim Vojvoda | 61 | 6% | 0% | 11% | 0.4 |
| Christian Kabasele | 51 | 6% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Hassane Kamara | 65 | 6% | 0% | 9% | 0.5 |
| Jesper Karlström | 77 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Jakub Piotrowski bench | 22 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Adam Buksa bench | 10 | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Lennon Miller bench | 44 | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0.4 |
| Oumar Solet bench | 29 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Oier Zarraga bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Arthur Atta bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Enzo Ebosse | 67 | 2% | 0% | 6% | 0.1 |
| Sandi Lovric bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Nicolò Bertola bench | 22 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Alessandro Zanoli bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Juan Arizala bench | 9 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Maduka Okoye | 81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amar Ahmed Fatah | 43 | 12% | 1% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Willem Geubbels bench | 26 | 9% | 0% | 2% | 0.6 |
| Lassana Coulibaly | 78 | 9% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Konan N’Dri | 33 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Nikola Stulic bench | 30 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Tiago Gabriel | 74 | 7% | 0% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Paco Esteban bench | 24 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Joël Monteiro bench | 27 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Santiago Pierotti | 59 | 5% | 0% | 6% | 0.7 |
| Youssef Maleh | 57 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.7 |
| Oumar Ngom | 63 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Omri Gandelman bench | 21 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Jamil Siebert | 81 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Francesco Camarda bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Antonino Gallo | 77 | 1% | 0% | 8% | 0.2 |
| Ivan Ilic bench | 20 | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Kialonda Gaspar bench | 26 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Mohamed Kaba bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Medon Berisha bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Danilo Veiga | 80 | 1% | 0% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Gaby Jean bench | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ylber Ramadani bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Corrie Ndaba bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wladimiro Falcone | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check