Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Fiorentina 4-2-4likely elevens4-2-3-1 Como
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Fiorentina
Como
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Fiorentina
Como
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Como ahead.
Como win about 53 times in 100. The other 47: a draw (26) or a Fiorentina win (21).Every forecast ›1.1–1.8goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
54%three goals or more
57%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Fiorentina score first35%Fiorentina win 49%
Como score first59%Como win 76%
Fiorentina score first, in the first 15 minutes11%Fiorentina win 43%
Fiorentina ahead at half-time20%Fiorentina win 57%
Level at half-time40%Fiorentina win 20%
Numbers to expectFiorentinaComo
Shots11.815.1
Shots on target3.35.0
Corners3.94.9
Fouls11.812.0
Yellow cards2.01.7
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandFiorentina first, Como in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Como win or draw 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 79%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals6%not checked on its own yet
1 goal15%not checked on its own yet
2 goals25%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals16%not checked on its own yet
5 goals9%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals6%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 26%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Fiorentina by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina by 25%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina by 114%not checked on its own yet
Draw26%not checked on its own yet
Como by 124%not checked on its own yet
Como by 217%not checked on its own yet
Como by 3 or more12%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Como keep a clean sheet 33%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Fiorentina keep a clean sheet16%not checked on its own yet
Como keep a clean sheet33%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina win without conceding10%not checked on its own yet
Como win without conceding27%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all6%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners73%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners50%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners29%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Fiorentina: 4 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Como: 5 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Fiorentina32%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Como56%not checked on its own yet
Shots
25 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
25 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots50%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Fiorentina: 12 or more49%not checked on its own yet
Como: 15 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Fiorentina28%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Como67%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
22 or more fouls 66%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more fouls66%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls51%not checked on its own yet
26 or more fouls35%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Fiorentina: 12 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Como: 12 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Fiorentina44%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Como48%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
061095211613106212366313122145
Fiorentina's goals down the side, Como's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Como: 1 or more 84%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half72%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half80%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina ahead at half-time20%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time41%not checked on its own yet
Como ahead at half-time39%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina win the second half21%not checked on its own yet
Second half level35%not checked on its own yet
Como win the second half44%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half29%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half45%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves26%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Fiorentina ahead at half-time, Fiorentina win11%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Fiorentina win8%not checked on its own yet
Como ahead at half-time, Fiorentina win1%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw15%not checked on its own yet
Como ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Fiorentina ahead at half-time, Como win3%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Como win18%not checked on its own yet
Como ahead at half-time, Como win32%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Como score first 59%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Fiorentina score first35%not checked on its own yet
Como score first59%not checked on its own yet
No goals6%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1533%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3022%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 88%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards88%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards50%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards17%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Fiorentina: 2 or more58%not checked on its own yet
Como: 2 or more51%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Fiorentina44%not checked on its own yet
As many each22%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Como34%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 82%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target82%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target58%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target33%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Fiorentina: 3 or more63%not checked on its own yet
Como: 5 or more56%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Fiorentina23%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Como66%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Tasos Douvikas 31%
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alieu Njie | 51 | 13% | 1% | 7% | 0.9 |
| Beto bench | 33 | 13% | 1% | 2% | 0.7 |
| Franco Mastantuono | 63 | 12% | 1% | 8% | 1.4 |
| Mateo Pellegrino | 46 | 10% | 1% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Cher Ndour | 73 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.7 |
| Nicolo Fagioli | 74 | 4% | 0% | 9% | 0.7 |
| Arthur Atta bench | 33 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Alejandro Jiménez | 63 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Wilfried Gnonto | 34 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Marco Brescianini bench | 19 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Moise Kean bench | 5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Albert Gudmundsson bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Rolando Mandragora bench | 15 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Radu Dragusin | 75 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Valde | 59 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Pote bench | 16 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Luca Ranieri bench | 39 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Riccardo Braschi bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Roberto Piccoli bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Viery | 56 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Christ Inao Oulaï bench | 14 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Manor Solomon bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Jack Harrison bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Giovanni Fabbian bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Fabiano Parisi bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Dodô bench | 25 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Robin Gosens bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Pietro Comuzzo bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marin Pongracic bench | 22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| João Mário bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luís Balbo bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| David de Gea | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Como
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tasos Douvikas | 68 | 31% | 6% | 5% | 1.7 |
| Nico Paz | 76 | 19% | 2% | 13% | 2.6 |
| Assane Diao | 69 | 13% | 1% | 11% | 1.4 |
| Lucas Da Cunha | 72 | 12% | 1% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Jacobo Ramón | 79 | 11% | 1% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Moise Kean bench | 20 | 10% | 0% | 1% | 0.7 |
| Kaiki | 61 | 8% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Martin Baturina | 47 | 8% | 0% | 11% | 0.9 |
| Máximo Perrone | 70 | 6% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Jesús Rodriguez bench | 37 | 6% | 0% | 11% | 0.8 |
| Yan Couto | 70 | 5% | 0% | 11% | 0.6 |
| Trevoh Chalobah | 68 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Maxence Caqueret bench | 35 | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0.3 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf bench | 23 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Álvaro Morata bench | 7 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Jayden Addai bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Samuele Ricci bench | 15 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Álex Valle bench | 30 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Mattia Liberali bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Luis Milla bench | 22 | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Alberto Moreno bench | 9 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Sergi Roberto bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ivan Smolcic bench | 13 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Mergim Vojvoda bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Diego Carlos bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Robert Sánchez bench | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jean Butez | 79 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check