Vesta
Every kind of forecast, checked
For each thing Vesta gives a chance or a number to, what it expected and what happened. A forecast of 30% should come true about 3 times in 10: the closer the two columns, the more its numbers can be taken at their word.
0
European cups with a published forecast, played
0
kinds of forecast checked
– pts
average gap, said against happened
Published, 176 matches
Past seasons, 16,404
The last forecast published before the real kick-off of each match, as it was published, never changed afterwards.
Who made these forecasts
Each kind of match has its own model; each is checked apart.| Model of the forecasts checked | Matches |
|---|---|
| Club matches | |
| Club champion with H01b, H19, H20, H21, H22 | 43 |
| National teams | |
| National-team Elo-Poisson model | 133 |
| European cups | |
| No forecast checked yet | 0 |
The current club champion, dc_xg2_cal_pl_pool_com (H01b, H19, H20, H21, H22, H24), has no checked forecast yet: its first ones are checked as their matches are played. When a kick-off moved to another day, the forecast published last before the real kick-off is the one checked; 74 earlier forecasts published under the old date are kept in the log but not checked. 3 matches forecast before kick-off were called off (15 forecasts kept in the log, not checked): Sri Lanka v Djibouti, 2026-10-03, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401912238 STATUS_CANCELED); Tunisia v Mali, 2026-10-03, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401916228 STATUS_CANCELED); Bolivia v Gambia, 2026-10-04, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401925303 STATUS_CANCELED).
Vesta Live, checked
184 changes after goals, red cards and half-time, in 40 finished matches0.155 → 0.117Brier score of the result, just before and just after each event (lower is better)
0.795 → 0.607log loss of the result, before and after
184changes checked: a small sample so far, it grows with every match
| Chance given after an event | Times | Said | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 184 | 3% | 3% |
| 10–25% | 105 | 18% | 18% |
| 25–40% | 99 | 33% | 30% |
| 40–55% | 31 | 48% | 55% |
| 55–70% | 29 | 65% | 66% |
| 70–85% | 35 | 77% | 77% |
| 85–100% | 69 | 96% | 96% |
The live 1X2 is a model estimate: on past seasons it beats the forecast before kick-off at every minute, but its calibration is not yet within our tolerance at half-time and near the end. How Vesta works ›
Nothing to check yetThe forecasts are checked as soon as their matches are played.
Past seasons, hidden and predicted
16,364 league matches since 2017-1852.9%favourites won, 8,652 of 16,364; 52.8% expected
2,100exact scores, 12.8% of matches; 2,064 expected
41.7%the chance given to what happened, on average
0.194Brier score, lower is better
Season by season
| Season | Matches | Favourites won | Expected | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 so far | 253 | 49.8% | 49.5% | 32 |
| 2025-26 test season | 1,752 | 52.1% | 51.2% | 207 |
| 2024-25 test season | 1,752 | 53.4% | 53.3% | 219 |
| 2023-24 | 1,752 | 53.6% | 53.4% | 238 |
| 2022-23 | 1,826 | 53.3% | 52.8% | 236 |
| 2021-22 | 1,826 | 51.9% | 52.2% | 241 |
| 2020-21 | 1,826 | 52.5% | 52.2% | 242 |
| 2019-20 | 1,725 | 52.8% | 52.8% | 220 |
| 2018-19 | 1,826 | 52.3% | 53.2% | 242 |
| 2017-18 | 1,826 | 54.3% | 54.7% | 223 |
League by league
| League | Matches | Favourites won | Expected | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bundesliga | 2,791 | 51.7% | 54.0% | 335 |
  Ligue 1 | 3,143 | 50.9% | 51.4% | 377 |
  La Liga | 3,490 | 52.7% | 51.3% | 505 |
  Premier League | 3,470 | 54.8% | 54.2% | 417 |
  Serie A | 3,470 | 53.8% | 53.5% | 466 |
Each season hidden from Vesta, which learned only from the seasons before it and predicted every match with what was known before kick-off.