Lab
Vesta

Every kind of forecast, checked

For each thing Vesta gives a chance or a number to, what it expected and what happened. A forecast of 30% should come true about 3 times in 10: the closer the two columns, the more its numbers can be taken at their word.

133
National teams with a published forecast, played
19
kinds of forecast checked
3.0 pts
average gap, said against happened
Published, 176 matches Past seasons, 16,404 The last forecast published before the real kick-off of each match, as it was published, never changed afterwards.
Club matches, 43National teams, 133European cups, 0

Who made these forecasts

Each kind of match has its own model; each is checked apart.
Model of the forecasts checkedMatches
Club matches
Club champion with H01b, H19, H20, H21, H2243
National teams
National-team Elo-Poisson model133
European cups
No forecast checked yet0
The current club champion, dc_xg2_cal_pl_pool_com (H01b, H19, H20, H21, H22, H24), has no checked forecast yet: its first ones are checked as their matches are played. When a kick-off moved to another day, the forecast published last before the real kick-off is the one checked; 74 earlier forecasts published under the old date are kept in the log but not checked. 3 matches forecast before kick-off were called off (15 forecasts kept in the log, not checked): Sri Lanka v Djibouti, 2026-10-03, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401912238 STATUS_CANCELED); Tunisia v Mali, 2026-10-03, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401916228 STATUS_CANCELED); Bolivia v Gambia, 2026-10-04, cancelled (ESPN status (automatic), ESPN event 401925303 STATUS_CANCELED).

Vesta Live, checked

184 changes after goals, red cards and half-time, in 40 finished matches
0.155 → 0.117Brier score of the result, just before and just after each event (lower is better)
0.795 → 0.607log loss of the result, before and after
184changes checked: a small sample so far, it grows with every match
Chance given after an eventTimesSaidHappened
0–10%1843%3%
10–25%10518%18%
25–40%9933%30%
40–55%3148%55%
55–70%2965%66%
70–85%3577%77%
85–100%6996%96%
The live 1X2 is a model estimate: on past seasons it beats the forecast before kick-off at every minute, but its calibration is not yet within our tolerance at half-time and near the end. How Vesta works ›

Brier score: the average, over every outcome Vesta gave a chance to, of the squared gap between that chance and what happened (1 if it happened, 0 if not). 0 is perfect; for the match result, giving each of the three outcomes a third scores 0.222. The charts show only the chance bands with 20 forecasts or more.

Match result

Who wins, the result combinations and the winning margin.
ForecastVesta saidHappenedGap
Match resultThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 57.6% 56.4%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Home win49.7%42.1%133
Draw23.6%25.6%133
Away win26.7%32.3%133

Brier score 0.1862 (0 is perfect).

said 4%, happened 2% (43)said 15%, happened 31% (55)said 26%, happened 22% (131)said 34%, happened 33% (60)said 45%, happened 53% (36)said 55%, happened 50% (24)said 66%, happened 45% (20)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Result combinationsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 81.7% 77.4%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Home win or draw73.3%67.7%133
Either side wins76.4%74.4%133
Away win or draw50.3%57.9%133

Brier score 0.1862 (0 is perfect).

said 34%, happened 55% (20)said 45%, happened 50% (24)said 55%, happened 47% (36)said 66%, happened 67% (60)said 74%, happened 78% (131)said 85%, happened 69% (55)said 96%, happened 98% (43)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Winning margin Home side by 2 goalsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 74.5% 78.2%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Home win by 3 or more16.1%14.3%133
Home win by exactly 213.7%10.5%133
Home win by 1 at most, or do not win70.2%75.2%133

Brier score 0.1151 (0 is perfect).

said 5%, happened 3% (120)said 15%, happened 17% (83)said 22%, happened 15% (54)said 56%, happened 75% (20)said 75%, happened 80% (25)said 85%, happened 90% (39)said 94%, happened 90% (21)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Winning margin Home side by 1 goalThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 60.9% 62.4%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Home win by 2 or more29.8%24.8%133
Home win by exactly 119.9%17.3%133
Home do not win50.3%57.9%133

Brier score 0.1638 (0 is perfect).

said 5%, happened 5% (39)said 16%, happened 11% (87)said 24%, happened 21% (112)said 35%, happened 54% (35)said 44%, happened 35% (34)said 55%, happened 52% (27)said 66%, happened 71% (28)said 74%, happened 95% (21)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Winning margin Away side by 1 goalThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 75.5% 71.4%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Away do not win73.3%67.7%133
Away win by exactly 114.3%16.5%133
Away win by 2 or more12.4%15.8%133

Brier score 0.1428 (0 is perfect).

said 5%, happened 8% (121)said 15%, happened 17% (83)said 23%, happened 24% (58)said 64%, happened 65% (23)said 75%, happened 78% (27)said 86%, happened 67% (33)said 95%, happened 100% (26)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Winning margin Away side by 2 goalsThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 88.8% 86.5%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Away win by 1 at most, or do not win87.6%84.2%133
Away win by exactly 27.2%7.5%133
Away win by 3 or more5.3%8.3%133

Brier score 0.0776 (0 is perfect).

said 3%, happened 5% (211)said 13%, happened 15% (47)said 85%, happened 79% (34)said 96%, happened 93% (76)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Goals

How many goals in the match and for each side, and whether both sides score.
ForecastVesta saidHappenedGap
Total goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 91.7% 88.7%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
1 or more goals91.7%88.7%133
No goals8.3%11.3%133

Brier score 0.0991 (0 is perfect).

said 7%, happened 8% (86)said 10%, happened 17% (47)said 90%, happened 83% (47)said 93%, happened 92% (86)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Total goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 73.6% 72.9%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
2 or more goals73.6%72.9%133
1 or fewer goals26.4%27.1%133

Brier score 0.1909 (0 is perfect).

said 26%, happened 29% (48)said 31%, happened 31% (64)said 69%, happened 69% (64)said 74%, happened 71% (48)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Total goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 58.9% 57.1%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
3 or more goals48.9%51.9%133
2 or fewer goals51.1%48.1%133

Brier score 0.2308 (0 is perfect).

said 44%, happened 48% (115)said 56%, happened 52% (115)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Total goals 4 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 74.3% 71.4%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
4 or more goals28.4%28.6%133
3 or fewer goals71.6%71.4%133

Brier score 0.1994 (0 is perfect).

said 23%, happened 25% (109)said 77%, happened 75% (109)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Total goals 5 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 86.3% 78.9%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
5 or more goals14.5%18.0%133
4 or fewer goals85.5%82.0%133

Brier score 0.1567 (0 is perfect).

said 9%, happened 18% (65)said 13%, happened 10% (50)said 87%, happened 90% (50)said 91%, happened 82% (65)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Home team's goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 76.6% 70.7%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
1 or more home goals75.6%69.9%133
No home goals24.4%30.1%133

Brier score 0.1967 (0 is perfect).

said 15%, happened 29% (34)said 24%, happened 20% (35)said 34%, happened 51% (35)said 66%, happened 49% (35)said 76%, happened 80% (35)said 85%, happened 71% (34)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Home team's goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 67.2% 65.4%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
2 or more home goals45.3%43.6%133
1 or fewer home goals54.7%56.4%133

Brier score 0.2114 (0 is perfect).

said 25%, happened 30% (30)said 34%, happened 38% (37)said 45%, happened 46% (48)said 55%, happened 54% (48)said 66%, happened 62% (37)said 75%, happened 70% (30)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Home team's goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 80.5% 83.5%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
3 or more home goals23.6%21.8%133
2 or fewer home goals76.4%78.2%133

Brier score 0.1388 (0 is perfect).

said 6%, happened 9% (34)said 15%, happened 15% (46)said 25%, happened 27% (22)said 34%, happened 19% (21)said 66%, happened 81% (21)said 75%, happened 73% (22)said 85%, happened 85% (46)said 94%, happened 91% (34)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Away team's goals At least oneThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 64.9% 61.7%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
1 or more away goals60.0%63.9%133
No away goals40.0%36.1%133

Brier score 0.2181 (0 is perfect).

said 26%, happened 19% (32)said 35%, happened 42% (43)said 46%, happened 53% (49)said 54%, happened 47% (49)said 65%, happened 58% (43)said 74%, happened 81% (32)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Away team's goals 2 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 76.0% 72.9%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
2 or more away goals26.5%30.8%133
1 or fewer away goals73.5%69.2%133

Brier score 0.1791 (0 is perfect).

said 16%, happened 13% (39)said 25%, happened 27% (33)said 35%, happened 57% (30)said 65%, happened 43% (30)said 75%, happened 73% (33)said 84%, happened 87% (39)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Away team's goals 3 or moreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 91.2% 87.2%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
3 or more away goals10.0%15.0%133
2 or fewer away goals90.0%85.0%133

Brier score 0.1112 (0 is perfect).

said 4%, happened 7% (86)said 14%, happened 27% (37)said 86%, happened 73% (37)said 96%, happened 93% (86)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened
Both teams scoreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 56.2% 54.9%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
Both score43.8%45.1%133
Not both56.2%54.9%133

Brier score 0.2481 (0 is perfect).

said 46%, happened 45% (111)said 54%, happened 55% (111)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Exact score

The final score. 121 scores are given a chance every match.
ForecastVesta saidHappenedGap
Exact scoreThe likeliest outcome of each match, 133 matches 13.8% 12.0%
OutcomeSaidHappenedTimes
1-111.1%9.8%133
1-010.6%8.3%133
2-08.9%6.0%133
0-08.3%11.3%133
0-17.6%7.5%133
2-17.4%7.5%133
3-05.6%6.0%133
1-25.3%6.0%133
0-24.7%5.3%133
3-14.0%4.5%133
2-23.7%3.0%133
4-03.1%1.5%133

Brier score 0.0077 (0 is perfect).

said 1%, happened 1% (15,689)said 12%, happened 11% (404)said 0%100%happened
Chances grouped: said, across; happened, upSaid = happened

Past seasons, hidden and predicted

16,364 league matches since 2017-18
52.9%favourites won, 8,652 of 16,364; 52.8% expected
2,100exact scores, 12.8% of matches; 2,064 expected
41.7%the chance given to what happened, on average
0.194Brier score, lower is better
Season by season
SeasonMatchesFavourites wonExpectedExact
2026-27 so far25349.8%49.5%32
2025-26 test season1,75252.1%51.2%207
2024-25 test season1,75253.4%53.3%219
2023-241,75253.6%53.4%238
2022-231,82653.3%52.8%236
2021-221,82651.9%52.2%241
2020-211,82652.5%52.2%242
2019-201,72552.8%52.8%220
2018-191,82652.3%53.2%242
2017-181,82654.3%54.7%223
League by league
LeagueMatchesFavourites wonExpectedExact
Bundesliga2,79151.7%54.0%335
Ligue 13,14350.9%51.4%377
La Liga3,49052.7%51.3%505
Premier League3,47054.8%54.2%417
Serie A3,47053.8%53.5%466
Each season hidden from Vesta, which learned only from the seasons before it and predicted every match with what was known before kick-off.