RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt
RasenBallsport Leipzig ahead.
TestedRasenBallsport Leipzig win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (22) or an Eintracht Frankfurt win (21).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:43 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | RasenBallsport Leipzig win | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | ||||
| Top 4 | 32% | 37% | 27% | 24% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | ||||
| Top 4 | 3% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| Bottom 3 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 4% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals down, Eintracht Frankfurt goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Nkunku | 28% | 9% | 1.4 |
| Antonio Nusa | 20% | 18% | 2.4 |
| Tidiam Gomis bench | 19% | 10% | 1.7 |
| Brajan Gruda | 17% | 12% | 1.5 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | 13% | 9% | 1.5 |
| Rômulo bench | 12% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Willi Orban | 12% | 2% | 0.8 |
| Christoph Baumgartner bench | 10% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Conrad Harder bench | 8% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Bote Baku | 8% | 10% | 0.7 |
| Assan Ouédraogo bench | 7% | 7% | 0.6 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | 7% | 8% | 0.7 |
| David Raum | 7% | 23% | 0.7 |
| Yan Diomande bench | 6% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Johan Bakayoko bench | 6% | 2% | 0.6 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | 4% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Benjamin Henrichs bench | 3% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Castello Lukeba | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Rocco Reitz bench | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Max Finkgrafe bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Maxime Estève bench | <1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Péter Gulácsi bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Burkardt | 32% | 6% | 1.4 |
| Younes Ebnoutalib | 22% | 8% | 1.2 |
| Can Uzun | 20% | 12% | 1.5 |
| Ritsu Doan | 7% | 11% | 0.7 |
| Raphael Onyedika | 5% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Robin Koch | 4% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Ansgar Knauff bench | 3% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Farès Chaïbi bench | 3% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga bench | 2% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab bench | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Elias Baum | 2% | 6% | 0.3 |
| Keita Kosugi | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Noel Aséko Nkili bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Mario Götze bench | 2% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Lilian Brassier | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Jeremiaha Maluze | 1% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Nathaniel Brown bench | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Ellyes Skhiri bench | <1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rasmus Kristensen bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Oscar Højlund bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Aurèle Amenda bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Timothy Chandler bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Nnamdi Collins bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Noah Atubolu | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Michael Zetterer bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



