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RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt

57%RasenBallsport Leipzig
22%Draw
21%Eintracht Frankfurt

RasenBallsport Leipzig ahead.

Tested

RasenBallsport Leipzig win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (22) or an Eintracht Frankfurt win (21).

Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:43 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals70%
Both teams score69%
Expected goals2.2 v 1.4
Most likely score2-110% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
RasenBallsport Leipzig4-3-35-3-2Eintracht Frankfurt

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots18.510.7
Shots on target6.54.0
Corners5.94.0
Fouls9.010.9
Yellow cards1.62.1

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowRasenBallsport Leipzig winDrawEintracht Frankfurt win
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Top 432%37%27%24%
Eintracht Frankfurt
Top 43%2%3%7%
Bottom 36%8%6%4%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals97%
2 or more goals89%
3 or more goals70%
4 or more goals49%
5 or more goals28%

Exactly

0 goals3%
1 goal9%
2 goals18%
3 goals22%
4 goals20%
5 goals14%
6 or more goals14%

Goals by team

Tested
RasenBallsport Leipzig: 1 or more91%
RasenBallsport Leipzig: 2 or more66%
RasenBallsport Leipzig: 3 or more38%
Eintracht Frankfurt: 1 or more76%
Eintracht Frankfurt: 2 or more39%
Eintracht Frankfurt: 3 or more15%
Both teams score69%
At least one team does not score31%

Winning margin

Tested
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 3 or more18%
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 217%
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 122%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 112%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 26%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3 or more3%

Result combinations

Tested
RasenBallsport Leipzig win or draw79%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw43%

Clean sheets

Tested
RasenBallsport Leipzig keep a clean sheet24%
Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet9%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win without conceding22%
Eintracht Frankfurt win without conceding7%
No goals at all3%

The first goal

Model estimate
RasenBallsport Leipzig score first61%
Eintracht Frankfurt score first37%
No goals3%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1539%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-755%
Minutes 76-90+3%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals down, Eintracht Frankfurt goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
02.63.12.20.90.30.1
15.59.65.72.40.80.2
26.710.07.52.90.90.2
35.07.45.02.40.70.2
42.74.02.71.10.40.1
51.11.71.10.50.1·

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half80%
A goal in the second half87%
RasenBallsport Leipzig ahead at half-time43%
Level at half-time35%
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time22%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win the second half48%
Second half level30%
Eintracht Frankfurt win the second half22%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half48%
Same goals in both halves22%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
RasenBallsport Leipzig ahead at half-time, RasenBallsport Leipzig win35%
Level at half-time, RasenBallsport Leipzig win17%
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time, RasenBallsport Leipzig win4%
RasenBallsport Leipzig ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw11%
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time, draw6%
RasenBallsport Leipzig ahead at half-time, Eintracht Frankfurt win2%
Level at half-time, Eintracht Frankfurt win7%
Eintracht Frankfurt ahead at half-time, Eintracht Frankfurt win12%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
RasenBallsport LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

RasenBallsport Leipzig
RasenBallsport Leipzig: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Christopher Nkunku5128%4%9%34%1.4
Antonio Nusa7420%2%18%34%2.4
Tidiam Gomis bench4919%2%10%27%1.7
Brajan Gruda5117%2%12%28%1.5
Ezechiel Banzuzi6713%<1%9%21%1.5
Rômulo bench2012%<1%3%15%0.6
Willi Orban9012%<1%2%14%0.8
Christoph Baumgartner bench1810%<1%4%13%0.5
Conrad Harder bench168%<1%4%12%0.7
Bote Baku588%<1%10%17%0.7
Assan Ouédraogo bench257%<1%7%13%0.6
Neil El Aynaoui527%<1%8%14%0.7
David Raum727%<1%23%28%0.7
Yan Diomande bench176%<1%6%12%0.4
Johan Bakayoko bench186%<1%2%9%0.6
Nicolas Seiwald554%<1%5%8%0.5
Benjamin Henrichs bench323%<1%2%5%0.4
Castello Lukeba512%<1%1%4%0.2
Rocco Reitz bench172%<1%3%5%0.3
Max Finkgrafe bench202%<1%2%4%0.2
Maxime Estève bench39<1%<1%1%2%0.2
Maarten Vandevoordt72<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Péter Gulácsi bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Jonathan Burkardt7132%6%6%36%1.4
Younes Ebnoutalib5722%3%8%28%1.2
Can Uzun8020%2%12%29%1.5
Ritsu Doan667%<1%11%18%0.7
Raphael Onyedika725%<1%5%9%0.5
Robin Koch904%<1%4%8%0.4
Ansgar Knauff bench203%<1%3%6%0.3
Farès Chaïbi bench303%<1%6%9%0.4
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga bench102%<1%<1%3%0.2
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab bench222%<1%3%5%0.3
Elias Baum632%<1%6%9%0.3
Keita Kosugi722%<1%3%5%0.3
Noel Aséko Nkili bench222%<1%2%4%0.2
Mario Götze bench332%<1%6%8%0.2
Lilian Brassier541%<1%2%3%0.2
Jeremiaha Maluze361%<1%3%5%0.1
Nathaniel Brown bench181%<1%2%3%0.1
Ellyes Skhiri bench18<1%<1%1%2%0.1
Rasmus Kristensen bench17<1%<1%<1%2%0.1
Oscar Højlund bench9<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Mahmoud Dahoud bench5<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Aurèle Amenda bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Timothy Chandler bench5<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Nnamdi Collins bench5<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Noah Atubolu72<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Michael Zetterer bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0