La LigaVesta · published Mon 12 OctEspanyolEspanyol
DWLLD12th · 8 pts
14:00
Kick-off · Sat 17 Oct
Atletico MadridAtlético
2nd · 19 ptsLWWWW
22%Espanyol win
27%Draw
51%Atletico Madrid win
Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Espanyol 4-3-2-1likely elevens5-4-1 Atletico Madrid
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Espanyol
Atletico Madrid
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Espanyol
Atletico Madrid
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Atletico Madrid ahead.
Atletico Madrid win about 51 times in 100. The other 49: a draw (27) or an Espanyol win (22).Every forecast ›1.1–1.7goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 13%
53%three goals or more
57%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Espanyol score first36%Espanyol win 51%
Atletico Madrid score first58%Atlético win 75%
Espanyol score first, in the first 15 minutes11%Espanyol win 46%
Espanyol ahead at half-time21%Espanyol win 59%
Level at half-time40%Espanyol win 21%
Numbers to expectEspanyolAtletico Madrid
Shots11.913.8
Shots on target3.74.9
Corners4.15.0
Fouls12.811.5
Yellow cards2.22.2
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandEspanyol first, Atletico Madrid in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Atletico Madrid win or draw 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 78%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals6%not checked on its own yet
1 goal16%not checked on its own yet
2 goals25%not checked on its own yet
3 goals23%not checked on its own yet
4 goals16%not checked on its own yet
5 goals8%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals6%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Espanyol by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol by 26%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol by 114%not checked on its own yet
Draw27%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid by 124%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid by 216%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid by 3 or more11%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet 32%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Espanyol keep a clean sheet17%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet32%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol win without conceding11%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid win without conceding26%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all6%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners76%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners54%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Espanyol: 4 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid: 5 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Espanyol34%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Atletico Madrid54%not checked on its own yet
Shots
24 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
24 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
28 or more shots37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Espanyol: 12 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid: 14 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Espanyol36%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Atletico Madrid58%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
22 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls55%not checked on its own yet
26 or more fouls39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Espanyol: 13 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Espanyol56%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Atletico Madrid37%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0610952116131062123663131221415
Espanyol's goals down the side, Atletico Madrid's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Atletico Madrid: 1 or more 83%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half71%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half80%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol ahead at half-time21%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time41%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time38%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol win the second half22%not checked on its own yet
Second half level35%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid win the second half43%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half44%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves26%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Espanyol ahead at half-time, Espanyol win12%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Espanyol win9%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time, Espanyol win2%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw15%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Espanyol ahead at half-time, Atletico Madrid win3%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Atletico Madrid win17%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time, Atletico Madrid win31%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Atletico Madrid score first 57%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Espanyol score first37%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid score first57%not checked on its own yet
No goals6%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1532%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3023%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-757%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+5%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 64%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards93%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards64%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards28%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Espanyol: 2 or more65%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid: 2 or more64%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Espanyol40%not checked on its own yet
As many each20%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Atletico Madrid40%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target75%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target50%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target27%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Espanyol: 4 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Atletico Madrid: 5 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Espanyol29%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Atletico Madrid59%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Roberto Fernández 26%
Espanyol
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Fernández | 73 | 26% | 4% | 5% | 1.1 |
| Cala bench | 36 | 7% | 0% | 2% | 0.6 |
| Marcos Fernández bench | 23 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Pere Milla bench | 23 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Leandro Cabrera | 77 | 6% | 0% | 1% | 0.6 |
| Tyrhys Dolan | 61 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0.7 |
| Javi Hernández | 51 | 6% | 0% | 11% | 0.7 |
| Edu Expósito | 67 | 6% | 0% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Bryan Zaragoza bench | 41 | 6% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Pol Lozano | 47 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Kike García bench | 5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Urko Gonzalez | 68 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Gabriel Moscardo bench | 15 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Rafael Bauza bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Jofre Carreras bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Quilindschy Hartman | 60 | 1% | 0% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Roger Hinojo bench | 39 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Clemens Riedel | 67 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| José Ángel López bench | 17 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Unai Núñez bench | 26 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Omar El Hilali | 74 | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0.1 |
| Vanja Drkusic bench | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Fernando Calero bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ángel Fortuño | 58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marko Dmitrovic bench | 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo | 75 | 17% | 2% | 15% | 1.5 |
| Ademola Lookman bench | 44 | 17% | 2% | 5% | 1.3 |
| Jonathan David bench | 30 | 15% | 1% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Julián Álvarez bench | 37 | 14% | 1% | 7% | 1.1 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 65 | 13% | 1% | 11% | 1.0 |
| Lee Kang-In | 52 | 12% | 1% | 12% | 1.2 |
| Alexander Sørloth bench | 20 | 11% | 1% | 1% | 0.7 |
| Álex Baena | 61 | 10% | 1% | 13% | 1.4 |
| Cristian Romero | 68 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Koke | 68 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Marcos Llorente | 73 | 4% | 0% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Robin Le Normand | 48 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Johnny Cardoso | 57 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas bench | 34 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Marc Pubill bench | 36 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| David Hancko | 58 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Arnau Ortiz bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Morten Hjulmand bench | 20 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Aleksa Puric bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Javier Morcillo bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Javier Boñar bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Giménez bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matteo Ruggeri bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jan Oblak | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check