Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Villarreal 5-2-3likely elevens4-5-1 Elche
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Villarreal
Elche
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Villarreal
Elche
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Villarreal, clearly.
Villarreal win about 70 times in 100. The other 30: a draw (19) or an Elche win (11).Every forecast ›2.4–1.0goals expected
2–1likeliest score, 10%
67%three goals or more
59%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Villarreal score first70%Villarreal win 85%
Elche score first27%Elche win 33%
Villarreal score first, in the first 15 minutes26%Villarreal win 86%
Villarreal ahead at half-time54%Villarreal win 89%
Level at half-time32%Villarreal win 56%
Numbers to expectVillarrealElche
Shots17.19.7
Shots on target6.03.2
Corners6.33.5
Fouls11.713.6
Yellow cards1.72.3
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandVillarreal first, Elche in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Villarreal win or draw 89%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 87%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals3%not checked on its own yet
1 goal10%not checked on its own yet
2 goals20%not checked on its own yet
3 goals22%not checked on its own yet
4 goals20%not checked on its own yet
5 goals13%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals12%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Villarreal by 3 or more 27%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Villarreal by 3 or more27%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal by 221%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal by 122%not checked on its own yet
Draw19%not checked on its own yet
Elche by 18%not checked on its own yet
Elche by 23%not checked on its own yet
Elche by 3 or more1%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Villarreal keep a clean sheet 37%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Villarreal keep a clean sheet37%not checked on its own yet
Elche keep a clean sheet7%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal win without conceding34%not checked on its own yet
Elche win without conceding4%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all3%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners71%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners50%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners30%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Villarreal: 6 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Elche: 3 or more64%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Villarreal73%not checked on its own yet
As many each9%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Elche18%not checked on its own yet
Shots
25 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
25 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots49%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Villarreal: 17 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Elche: 10 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Villarreal85%not checked on its own yet
As many each3%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Elche11%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
23 or more fouls 69%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
23 or more fouls69%not checked on its own yet
25 or more fouls55%not checked on its own yet
27 or more fouls39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Villarreal: 12 or more50%not checked on its own yet
Elche: 14 or more49%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Villarreal32%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Elche61%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 2–1
012345
033117941210105138841455215221
Villarreal's goals down the side, Elche's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Villarreal: 2 or more 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 85%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half79%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half85%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal ahead at half-time52%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time33%not checked on its own yet
Elche ahead at half-time15%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal win the second half57%not checked on its own yet
Second half level29%not checked on its own yet
Elche win the second half14%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half30%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half47%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves22%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Villarreal ahead at half-time, Villarreal win47%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Villarreal win19%not checked on its own yet
Elche ahead at half-time, Villarreal win4%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal ahead at half-time, draw4%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw10%not checked on its own yet
Elche ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Villarreal ahead at half-time, Elche win1%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Elche win4%not checked on its own yet
Elche ahead at half-time, Elche win6%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Villarreal score first 69%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Villarreal score first69%not checked on its own yet
Elche score first28%not checked on its own yet
No goals3%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1539%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3024%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6010%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-756%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+4%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 57%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards91%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards57%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards22%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Villarreal: 2 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Elche: 2 or more67%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Villarreal29%not checked on its own yet
As many each20%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Elche51%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
7 or more shots on target 80%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more shots on target80%not checked on its own yet
9 or more shots on target56%not checked on its own yet
11 or more shots on target33%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Villarreal: 6 or more55%not checked on its own yet
Elche: 3 or more61%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Villarreal77%not checked on its own yet
As many each9%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Elche14%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Ayoze Pérez 34%
Villarreal
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoze Pérez | 64 | 34% | 7% | 19% | 1.8 |
| Georges Mikautadze bench | 44 | 30% | 5% | 12% | 1.5 |
| Alberto Moleiro | 69 | 23% | 3% | 21% | 1.4 |
| Gerard Moreno bench | 38 | 23% | 3% | 9% | 1.1 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye | 71 | 18% | 2% | 9% | 1.4 |
| Ilias Akhomach | 43 | 13% | 1% | 13% | 1.0 |
| Nicolas Pépé bench | 27 | 10% | 1% | 9% | 0.7 |
| Tajon Buchanan bench | 35 | 9% | 0% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Nathan Saliba | 58 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0.9 |
| Santiago Comesaña bench | 42 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Carlos Romero | 49 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi bench | 10 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Sergi Cardona | 55 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 0.4 |
| Alexander Freeman | 72 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Carlos Macià bench | 15 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Nizar El Jmili bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Renato Veiga | 77 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Santiago Mouriño bench | 28 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pau Navarro | 69 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Juan Foyth bench | 24 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Logan Costa bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Péter Gulácsi | 72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luiz Júnior bench | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Arnau Tenas bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Elche
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Niño | 52 | 18% | 2% | 3% | 1.2 |
| Abiel Osorio bench | 46 | 15% | 1% | 3% | 1.4 |
| Lucas Cepeda bench | 35 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Thomas Lemar | 50 | 6% | 0% | 4% | 0.7 |
| German Valera | 77 | 5% | 0% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Javier Morcillo | 65 | 4% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Gonzalo Villar | 66 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Roy Revivo | 70 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.4 |
| Tete Morente | 51 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Facundo Buonanotte bench | 14 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Ezequiel Ponce bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Martim Neto bench | 31 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Marc Aguado | 64 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Victor Chust | 80 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Matia Barzic bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Buba Sangaré bench | 36 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rubén Sánchez | 46 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Josan bench | 12 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Federico Redondo bench | 25 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Pedro Bigas bench | 19 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Umaru bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Adrià Pedrosa bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| David Affengruber bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matías Dituro | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check