Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Valencia 4-4-2likely elevens5-4-1 Athletic Club
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Valencia
Athletic Club
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Valencia
Athletic Club
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Athletic Club, just.
Athletic Club win about 41 times in 100. The other 59: a draw (30) or a Valencia win (29).Every forecast ›1.1–1.3goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 15%
44%three goals or more
52%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Valencia score first41%Valencia win 61%
Athletic Club score first50%Athletic win 70%
Valencia score first, in the first 15 minutes12%Valencia win 56%
Valencia ahead at half-time24%Valencia win 67%
Level at half-time44%Valencia win 25%
Numbers to expectValenciaAthletic Club
Shots10.213.0
Shots on target3.64.2
Corners4.54.7
Fouls10.112.0
Yellow cards1.92.1
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandValencia first, Athletic Club in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Athletic Club win or draw 71%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 72%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals9%not checked on its own yet
1 goal20%not checked on its own yet
2 goals28%not checked on its own yet
3 goals21%not checked on its own yet
4 goals13%not checked on its own yet
5 goals6%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals3%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 30%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Valencia by 3 or more3%not checked on its own yet
Valencia by 28%not checked on its own yet
Valencia by 118%not checked on its own yet
Draw30%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club by 122%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club by 212%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club by 3 or more6%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Athletic Club keep a clean sheet 31%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Valencia keep a clean sheet25%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club keep a clean sheet31%not checked on its own yet
Valencia win without conceding16%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club win without conceding23%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all9%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 77%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners77%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners55%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners33%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Valencia: 5 or more46%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 5 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Valencia43%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Athletic Club46%not checked on its own yet
Shots
21 or more shots 66%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
21 or more shots66%not checked on its own yet
23 or more shots53%not checked on its own yet
25 or more shots40%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Valencia: 10 or more54%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 13 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Valencia29%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Athletic Club65%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
20 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
20 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
22 or more fouls54%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Valencia: 10 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 12 or more54%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Valencia31%not checked on its own yet
As many each8%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Athletic Club61%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
0911731191594125752132321415
Valencia's goals down the side, Athletic Club's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Athletic Club: 1 or more 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half66%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half75%not checked on its own yet
Valencia ahead at half-time24%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time45%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time31%not checked on its own yet
Valencia win the second half26%not checked on its own yet
Second half level40%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club win the second half34%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half29%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half43%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves28%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Valencia ahead at half-time, Valencia win16%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Valencia win12%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time, Valencia win2%not checked on its own yet
Valencia ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw19%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Valencia ahead at half-time, Athletic Club win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Athletic Club win15%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club ahead at half-time, Athletic Club win23%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Athletic Club score first 50%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Valencia score first42%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club score first50%not checked on its own yet
No goals9%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3021%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6012%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-758%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
4 or more yellow cards 56%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards91%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards56%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards21%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Valencia: 2 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 2 or more61%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Valencia36%not checked on its own yet
As many each21%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Athletic Club43%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 78%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target78%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target51%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target26%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Valencia: 4 or more48%not checked on its own yet
Athletic Club: 4 or more59%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Valencia35%not checked on its own yet
As many each14%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Athletic Club51%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Hugo Duro 22%
Valencia
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Duro | 66 | 22% | 3% | 4% | 0.9 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 63 | 14% | 1% | 8% | 1.1 |
| Javier Guerra | 70 | 8% | 0% | 10% | 0.9 |
| David Otorbi | 42 | 7% | 0% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Guido Rodríguez | 73 | 7% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Pepelu | 75 | 6% | 0% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Umar Sadiq bench | 11 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Aaron Mayol bench | 24 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Raba bench | 16 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Harvey Elliott bench | 22 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Filip Ugrinic | 57 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Luis Rioja bench | 22 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Justin de Haas | 61 | 2% | 0% | 6% | 0.2 |
| Largie Ramazani bench | 6 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| José Gayá | 66 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Aimar Blázquez bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Aliou Dieng bench | 19 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Iker Córdoba bench | 16 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby bench | 23 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Pablo Maffeo | 72 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Ryunosuke Sato bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Arnau Martinez bench | 16 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Jesús Vázquez bench | 29 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| André Almeida bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| César Tárrega bench | 16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Thierry Correia bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Stole Dimitrievski | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñaki Williams | 60 | 17% | 2% | 10% | 1.4 |
| Oihan Sancet | 66 | 16% | 1% | 5% | 1.5 |
| Nico Williams | 65 | 16% | 1% | 10% | 1.5 |
| Roberto Navarro | 58 | 15% | 1% | 6% | 0.9 |
| Gorka Guruzeta bench | 24 | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0.7 |
| Maroan Sannadi bench | 23 | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Alex Berenguer bench | 46 | 7% | 0% | 9% | 0.8 |
| Aitor Paredes | 61 | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Aymeric Laporte | 76 | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Peio Canales bench | 26 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 62 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Beñat Gerenabarrena bench | 33 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Mikel Jauregizar bench | 44 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Nicolás Serrano bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Yuri | 70 | 2% | 0% | 9% | 0.7 |
| Yeray Álvarez | 40 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Jesús Areso | 65 | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Unai Gómez bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Johaneko Louis Jean bench | 16 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Alejandro Rego bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Dani Vivian bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugo Rincón bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Adama Boiro bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andoni Gorosabel bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Unai Simón | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check