La LigaVesta · published Mon 12 OctReal BetisReal Betis
WWWDW3rd · 19 pts
18:30
Kick-off · Sat 17 Oct
BarcelonaBarcelona
1st · 24 ptsWWWWW
19%Real Betis win
21%Draw
60%Barcelona win
Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Real Betis 4-2-3-1likely elevens4-3-3 Barcelona
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Real Betis
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Real Betis
Barcelona
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
Barcelona ahead.
Barcelona win about 60 times in 100. The other 40: a draw (21) or a Real Betis win (19).Every forecast ›1.3–2.4goals expected
1–2likeliest score, 10%
73%three goals or more
70%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Real Betis score first34%Real Betis win 41%
Barcelona score first63%Barcelona win 78%
Real Betis score first, in the first 15 minutes13%Real Betis win 37%
Real Betis ahead at half-time20%Real Betis win 52%
Level at half-time33%Real Betis win 19%
Numbers to expectReal BetisBarcelona
Shots11.015.9
Shots on target4.05.9
Corners4.26.0
Fouls10.19.8
Yellow cards1.71.8
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandReal Betis first, Barcelona in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Barcelona win or draw 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
3 or more goals 73%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals2%not checked on its own yet
1 goal8%not checked on its own yet
2 goals17%not checked on its own yet
3 goals21%not checked on its own yet
4 goals21%not checked on its own yet
5 goals15%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals16%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Barcelona by 1 22%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Real Betis by 3 or more2%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis by 25%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis by 111%not checked on its own yet
Draw21%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona by 122%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona by 218%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona by 3 or more20%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Barcelona keep a clean sheet 25%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Real Betis keep a clean sheet8%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona keep a clean sheet25%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis win without conceding6%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona win without conceding22%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all2%not checked on its own yet
Corners
8 or more corners 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more corners75%not checked on its own yet
10 or more corners54%not checked on its own yet
12 or more corners34%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Real Betis: 4 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona: 6 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Real Betis27%not checked on its own yet
As many each10%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Barcelona63%not checked on its own yet
Shots
25 or more shots 62%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
25 or more shots62%not checked on its own yet
27 or more shots50%not checked on its own yet
29 or more shots38%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Real Betis: 11 or more51%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona: 16 or more50%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Real Betis20%not checked on its own yet
As many each5%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Barcelona75%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
18 or more fouls 68%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
18 or more fouls68%not checked on its own yet
20 or more fouls51%not checked on its own yet
22 or more fouls34%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Real Betis: 10 or more55%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona: 10 or more51%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Real Betis48%not checked on its own yet
As many each9%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Barcelona43%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–2
012345
0257531139108522257531312321141115
Real Betis's goals down the side, Barcelona's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Real Betis: 1 or more 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 88%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half81%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half88%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis ahead at half-time20%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time34%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona ahead at half-time46%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis win the second half20%not checked on its own yet
Second half level29%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona win the second half51%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half31%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half47%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves21%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Real Betis ahead at half-time, Real Betis win10%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Real Betis win6%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona ahead at half-time, Real Betis win2%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw10%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Real Betis ahead at half-time, Barcelona win4%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Barcelona win17%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona ahead at half-time, Barcelona win39%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Barcelona score first 63%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Real Betis score first35%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona score first63%not checked on its own yet
No goals2%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1541%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3025%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-609%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-755%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+3%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
2 or more yellow cards 86%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
2 or more yellow cards86%not checked on its own yet
4 or more yellow cards46%not checked on its own yet
6 or more yellow cards14%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Real Betis: 2 or more52%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona: 2 or more52%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Real Betis39%not checked on its own yet
As many each22%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Barcelona39%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
8 or more shots on target 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
8 or more shots on target76%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target53%not checked on its own yet
12 or more shots on target30%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Real Betis: 4 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Barcelona: 6 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Real Betis24%not checked on its own yet
As many each11%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Barcelona66%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Lamine Yamal 38%
Real Betis
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández | 69 | 20% | 2% | 9% | 1.4 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 71 | 19% | 2% | 13% | 1.3 |
| Isco | 51 | 14% | 1% | 6% | 0.9 |
| Antony | 54 | 12% | 1% | 8% | 1.3 |
| Pablo Fornals | 66 | 9% | 0% | 10% | 0.6 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme bench | 44 | 8% | 0% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Troy Parrott bench | 19 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Fran García | 69 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Marc Roca | 69 | 3% | 0% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Héctor Bellerín | 74 | 3% | 0% | 8% | 0.2 |
| Diego Llorente | 52 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Nelson Deossa bench | 32 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Giovani Lo Celso bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Natan | 78 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Facundo Bernal bench | 27 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| José Antonio Morante bench | 10 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Pablo García bench | 7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Dani Ceballos bench | 18 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Marc Bartra bench | 27 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo bench | 10 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Valentín Gómez bench | 25 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Júnior Firpo bench | 14 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ángel Ortiz bench | 11 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Álvaro Vallés | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 75 | 38% | 8% | 28% | 3.3 |
| Raphinha bench | 38 | 28% | 4% | 10% | 1.4 |
| Gabriel Jesus | 40 | 22% | 3% | 4% | 1.3 |
| Anthony Gordon | 53 | 19% | 2% | 9% | 1.2 |
| Fermín López | 50 | 17% | 1% | 15% | 1.4 |
| Karim Adeyemi bench | 28 | 14% | 1% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Dani Olmo bench | 47 | 14% | 1% | 14% | 1.3 |
| Pedri | 62 | 7% | 0% | 13% | 0.6 |
| Rodri | 60 | 6% | 0% | 7% | 0.8 |
| Eric Garcia | 75 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Jules Koundé | 59 | 5% | 0% | 7% | 0.3 |
| Marc Bernal bench | 31 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Xavi Espart | 67 | 4% | 0% | 9% | 0.5 |
| João Cancelo bench | 27 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Andreas Christensen bench | 33 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Gavi bench | 29 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Hamza Abdelkarim bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Gerard Martín | 68 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pau Cubarsí bench | 28 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Marc Casadó bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Frenkie de Jong bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Álex Balde bench | 14 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Wojciech Szczesny bench | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joan García | 76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dominik Livakovic bench | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check