Likely line-ups
our estimate from each team's recent matches
Lorient 6-3-1likely elevens4-2-2-2 Monaco
Chance to start
the starting-eleven model: 8.5 of the 11 starters named right on past seasons, and players given 80 to 90% started 86% of the time
Lorient
Monaco
What if a player misses it
pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too: Vesta works the match, the season and the scoring races out again
Lorient
Monaco
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban our card data and the league's rule make certain, marked as a fact. The place goes to the next most likely starter of the starting-eleven model. On past seasons the size of such changes is right on average, but missing a regular starter costs a side a little more than the model says. The races give the goals of the changed matches to the players again: the one out takes none.
1.2–1.3goals expected
1–1likeliest score, 15%
45%three goals or more
53%both sides score
ResultVestaHow chances like this did
If it goes this wayChanceThen the win
Lorient score first44%Lorient win 63%
Monaco score first48%Monaco win 67%
Lorient score first, in the first 15 minutes13%Lorient win 59%
Lorient ahead at half-time27%Lorient win 69%
Level at half-time44%Lorient win 28%
Numbers to expectLorientMonaco
Shots12.411.7
Shots on target4.14.1
Corners4.44.7
Fouls9.212.9
Yellow cards1.52.0
the number expected8 matches in 10 land in the bandLorient first, Monaco in blue
Beside each chance: how often chances of that size came true on the seasons Vesta never saw. The full track record ›
Every forecast
all of Vesta's numbers for this matchResult combinations
Either team wins (no draw) 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Goals in the match
2 or more goals 72%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Exactly
0 goals8%not checked on its own yet
1 goal19%not checked on its own yet
2 goals28%not checked on its own yet
3 goals21%not checked on its own yet
4 goals14%not checked on its own yet
5 goals6%not checked on its own yet
6 or more goals3%not checked on its own yet
Winning margin
Draw 30%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Lorient by 3 or more4%not checked on its own yet
Lorient by 29%not checked on its own yet
Lorient by 119%not checked on its own yet
Draw30%not checked on its own yet
Monaco by 121%not checked on its own yet
Monaco by 211%not checked on its own yet
Monaco by 3 or more5%not checked on its own yet
Clean sheets
Monaco keep a clean sheet 29%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Lorient keep a clean sheet26%not checked on its own yet
Monaco keep a clean sheet29%not checked on its own yet
Lorient win without conceding18%not checked on its own yet
Monaco win without conceding20%not checked on its own yet
No goals at all8%not checked on its own yet
Corners
7 or more corners 76%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
7 or more corners76%not checked on its own yet
9 or more corners53%not checked on its own yet
11 or more corners32%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lorient: 4 or more60%not checked on its own yet
Monaco: 5 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Lorient40%not checked on its own yet
As many each12%not checked on its own yet
More corners for Monaco48%not checked on its own yet
Shots
22 or more shots 65%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
22 or more shots65%not checked on its own yet
24 or more shots52%not checked on its own yet
26 or more shots39%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lorient: 12 or more55%not checked on its own yet
Monaco: 12 or more48%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Lorient52%not checked on its own yet
As many each7%not checked on its own yet
More shots for Monaco42%not checked on its own yet
Fouls
20 or more fouls 70%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
20 or more fouls70%not checked on its own yet
22 or more fouls53%not checked on its own yet
24 or more fouls37%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lorient: 9 or more56%not checked on its own yet
Monaco: 13 or more53%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Lorient19%not checked on its own yet
As many each6%not checked on its own yet
More fouls for Monaco75%not checked on its own yet
Exact score
likeliest 1–1
012345
081073119159412686213232141115
Lorient's goals down the side, Monaco's across. Darker, likelier.
Goals by team
Monaco: 1 or more 74%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Also
Halves
A goal in the second half 75%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
A goal in the first half67%not checked on its own yet
A goal in the second half75%not checked on its own yet
Lorient ahead at half-time27%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time44%not checked on its own yet
Monaco ahead at half-time29%not checked on its own yet
Lorient win the second half28%not checked on its own yet
Second half level40%not checked on its own yet
Monaco win the second half32%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the first half29%not checked on its own yet
More goals in the second half43%not checked on its own yet
Same goals in both halves28%not checked on its own yet
Half-time and full-time
Lorient ahead at half-time, Lorient win19%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Lorient win12%not checked on its own yet
Monaco ahead at half-time, Lorient win2%not checked on its own yet
Lorient ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, draw19%not checked on its own yet
Monaco ahead at half-time, draw6%not checked on its own yet
Lorient ahead at half-time, Monaco win2%not checked on its own yet
Level at half-time, Monaco win14%not checked on its own yet
Monaco ahead at half-time, Monaco win21%not checked on its own yet
The first goal
Monaco score first 47%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
Lorient score first45%not checked on its own yet
Monaco score first47%not checked on its own yet
No goals8%not checked on its own yet
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 16-3021%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 31-45+16%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 46-6011%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 61-758%not checked on its own yet
Minutes 76-90+6%not checked on its own yet
Yellow cards
3 or more yellow cards 68%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
1 or more yellow cards97%not checked on its own yet
3 or more yellow cards68%not checked on its own yet
5 or more yellow cards27%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lorient: 2 or more44%not checked on its own yet
Monaco: 2 or more59%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Lorient30%not checked on its own yet
As many each22%not checked on its own yet
More yellow cards for Monaco49%not checked on its own yet
Shots on target
6 or more shots on target 81%
OutcomeVestaHow chances like this did
6 or more shots on target81%not checked on its own yet
8 or more shots on target57%not checked on its own yet
10 or more shots on target31%not checked on its own yet
Each side
Lorient: 4 or more57%not checked on its own yet
Monaco: 4 or more58%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Lorient43%not checked on its own yet
As many each14%not checked on its own yet
More shots on target for Monaco44%not checked on its own yet
How to read it
Each chance is Vesta's, published before kick-off. Beside it: how Vesta's chances of the same size, in the same kind of forecast, came true on past seasons it never saw.
A chance with no check beside it is worked out from the others and has not been checked on its own yet.
The full track record ›Players
Every player's chances
likeliest to score Folarin Balogun 16%
Lorient
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahima Baldé | 36 | 14% | 1% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Mamadou Koné bench | 33 | 13% | 1% | 3% | 0.8 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo | 69 | 12% | 1% | 7% | 0.9 |
| Noah Cadiou | 78 | 9% | 0% | 5% | 0.9 |
| Gabin Bernardeau | 41 | 7% | 0% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Aiyegun Tosin bench | 13 | 6% | 0% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Isak Jensen bench | 26 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Alec Georgen bench | 35 | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng bench | 6 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Arthur Avom bench | 41 | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Panos Katseris | 35 | 3% | 0% | 9% | 0.3 |
| Sambou Soumano bench | 5 | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Arsène Kouassi | 78 | 3% | 0% | 11% | 0.3 |
| Nathaniel Adjei | 79 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Souleymane Faye bench | 15 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Pablo Pagis bench | 7 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Souleymane Isaak Touré | 47 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Montassar Talbi | 80 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Dembo Sylla | 73 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Noah Mbamba-Muanda bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Nosa Obaretin bench | 12 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Théo Le Bris bench | 21 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Dermane Karim bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Laurent Abergel bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Igor Silva bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Abdoulaye Faye bench | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bamo Meïté bench | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Yvon Mvogo | 83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | Score | Twice | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun | 42 | 16% | 1% | 5% | 1.3 |
| Paris Brunner bench | 30 | 12% | 1% | 2% | 0.9 |
| Anssumane Fati bench | 23 | 12% | 1% | 2% | 0.8 |
| Matthis Abline | 51 | 12% | 1% | 6% | 1.4 |
| Aleksandr Golovin | 70 | 11% | 1% | 11% | 1.2 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 44 | 8% | 0% | 6% | 0.9 |
| Lamine Camara | 77 | 6% | 0% | 11% | 0.9 |
| Eric Dier | 77 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Flávio Nazinho | 75 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Denis Zakaria | 56 | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Safouane Benzahra bench | 34 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Edan Diop bench | 23 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Mathys Detourbet bench | 19 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Mika Biereth bench | 9 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Sadibou Sané | 74 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly bench | 17 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Pape Cabral bench | 11 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Vanderson | 56 | 1% | 0% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Anis Soubeir bench | 8 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Maghnes Akliouche bench | 6 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Jordan Teze bench | 30 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Mohammed Salisu bench | 11 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.1 |
| Ilane Touré bench | 5 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Aladji Bamba bench | 7 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi bench | 12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wout Faes bench | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lukas Hradecky | 79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Published Mon 12 Oct, and kept: the page shows the numbers as logged, not worked out again. Each column is checked on past seasons: chances to start, score, score twice, assist, and the shots. See the check