Four numbers you can check
data to Mon 12 Oct 2026The Lab does not ask you to trust a score it cannot explain. These are the four metrics that 11footy computes itself, from base data only: results, line-ups, minutes and the shot list. Nothing is taken from a data provider's own xG, ratings or other derived numbers.
For each one there is a page with its definition, what goes in, the formula in words, when its numbers are too thin to read, a check of how well it works that is worked out from the data each time the site is rebuilt, and what it cannot tell you.
11footy xG
How likely a shot was to be a goal, judged before anyone knew how it ended, by a model of ours; added up over a match, a side or a player.
- Over 549,129 rated shots the model expected 59,681 goals and 58,888 were scored (+1.4% difference). Log loss 0.258, Brier 0.074.
- No full season was off by more than 4.7%.
Non-penalty xG difference
How many more (or fewer) non-penalty xG a side creates than it allows, per match (each match counts as 90 minutes).
- Over 1,150 full team-seasons, the even matches and the odd ones agree at r = 0.76 for npxGD against 0.68 for goal difference.
- The first half of a season's npxGD correlates 0.78 with its second half's goal difference against 0.75 for the first half's goal difference.
Player contribution
How much a player adds to his side's chances per 90 minutes, as a shooter and as a creator: his non-penalty xG plus his expected assists.
- Over 17,887 player-seasons the even and the odd matches agree at r = 0.81 for npxG + xA per 90 against 0.61 for goals + assists per 90.
11footy Elo
A rating of how strong a club (or a national team) has proved to be, computed by 11footy from results and goals only.
- Clubs, 2016-17 to 2026-27: on 18,234 matches, each scored with a mapping fitted on the seasons before it, log loss 0.985 against 1.071 for the league's home/draw/away frequencies alone.
- National teams, 2010 to 2026: on 16,278 matches, log loss 0.888 against 1.048 for the home/neutral frequencies alone.
Everything else in the Lab is secondary
still there, not part of the fourThe Lab keeps its other numbers, and no data is removed. They are descriptions to explore with, or forecasts with their own track record; they are not metrics 11footy asks you to rely on, and the Lab labels them secondary.
Shots, shot quality, distance, crosses, set pieces, headers, through balls, dribbles, fouls, the share of the match's shots and the style clusters.
Shots, shots on target, big chances, shots in the box, headers, key passes, assists, crosses and through balls to a shot, per 90 minutes, and the shares of a player's shots (inside the box, with the head, after a cross...).
The fine role of a player-season, his percentile within the role and the similarity score. They are ways of reading the numbers above, not numbers of their own.
A player's numbers split by slot, shape, opponent, venue or team-mate, and the comparison of his shots with a side's. Descriptive: the comparison was tested for what it says about a transfer and did not hold.
Match, season and player probabilities are forecasts, not Lab metrics: they have their own track record and method.
Data to (the latest league match played), built . Unless a season is chosen, every view shows 2025-26 (2026-27 is still young: 0 players have 900 league minutes so far, so the numbers are of 2025-26 until half as many as last season do.). Percentiles and per-90 ranks from 900 league minutes, within the player's role, five leagues together; under 450 minutes a small sample.