Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano v Elche
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersRayo Vallecano are 13th of 20 with 8 points from seven matches; Elche are 18th with 6 points from eight matches.
Rayo Vallecano have two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five, while Elche have a win, two draws and two defeats in their last five.
In their last ten meetings Rayo Vallecano won four, Elche six, with no draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | RAY win | Draw | ELC win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rayo Vallecano | ||||
| Top 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Bottom 3 | 6% | 4% | 7% | 10% |
  Elche | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 29% | 35% | 28% | 20% |
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Barcelona | 8 | +27 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |   Atletico Madrid | 8 | +10 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 3 |   Real Betis | 8 | +5 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 4 |   Real Madrid | 8 | +11 | 18 | LWWLW |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | -5 | 8 | LWLWD |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | -6 | 6 | LDLWD |
| 19 |   Valencia | 8 | -9 | 5 | LLWLD |
| 20 |   Malaga | 8 | -9 | 4 | DDLLD |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Elche have conceded in each of their last 23 away La Liga matches (44 goals against), their longest in our La Liga data (from 2013-14).
sample 23 · since August 2025
Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 12 home La Liga matches (W7 D5), their longest in our La Liga data (from 2001-02).
sample 12 · since February 2026
Rayo Vallecano have scored in each of their last 15 home La Liga matches (26 goals), their longest in our La Liga data (from 2001-02).
sample 15 · since January 2026
Elche have scored in each of their last 8 away La Liga matches (12 goals), their longest in our La Liga data (from 2013-14).
sample 8 · since April 2026
Rayo Vallecano have conceded in each of their last 8 La Liga matches (17 goals against), their longest such run since June 2023.
sample 8 · since May 2026
Rayo Vallecano have won their last 3 home league matches against Elche; Elche's last win there came on 14 September 2014.
sample 3 · since October 2021
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Rayo Vallecano
24 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Lejeune CB | 35 | 630 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 13 | 1 | 0.07 |
| Pathé Ciss DM | – | 630 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0.04 |
| Unai López DM | 30 | 572 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.96 | 5 | 16 | 0.20 |
| Álvaro García LW | – | 543 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1.69 | 0.92 | 11 | 3 | 0.43 |
| Andrei Ratiu RB | 28 | 540 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 7 | 4 | 0.17 |
| Sergio Camello ST | 25 | 482 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2.84 | 0.16 | 19 | 8 | 0.56 |
| Adrià Pedrosa LB | 28 | 409 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1.29 | 4 | 9 | 0.35 |
| Jorge De Frutos RW | – | 384 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 2 | 3 | 0.18 |
| Óscar Valentín DM | – | 375 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 |
| Pedro Díaz AM | – | 315 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 12 | 10 | 0.18 |
| Emil Audero GK | 29 | 270 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Cárdenas GK | – | 207 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili LW | – | 196 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.12 | 6 | 2 | – |
| Iván Balliu RB | – | 195 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Gnangoro DM | – | 186 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1 | 3 | – |
| Mujaid Sadick CB | 26 | 166 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Randy Nteka ST | – | 155 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | – |
| Augusto Batalla GK | – | 153 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Fran Pérez RW | – | 132 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd LB | – | 121 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Alemão ST | – | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | – |
| Isi Palazón AM | – | 85 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Pelayo Fernández CB | – | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Rayane Belaid RW | – | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
Elche
25 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Chust CB | – | 720 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 5 | 3 | 0.06 |
| Matías Dituro GK | – | 720 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| German Valera LWB | – | 668 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.82 | 3 | 12 | 0.14 |
| Gonzalo Villar CM | – | 654 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.91 | 5 | 8 | 0.18 |
| Fernando Niño ST | – | 552 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2.19 | 0.18 | 12 | 2 | 0.39 |
| Buba Sangaré RB | – | 547 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 |
| Tete Morente LW | – | 452 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | 1.49 | 6 | 6 | 0.33 |
| Javier Morcillo CM | – | 393 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| Roy Revivo LB | 23 | 360 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 2 | 4 | 0.16 |
| Marc Aguado CM | – | 358 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0.07 |
| Federico Redondo CB | 23 | 332 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 |
| David Affengruber CB | 25 | 270 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 5 | 1 | 0.10 |
| Thomas Lemar AM | 30 | 254 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 5 | 3 | – |
| Lucas Cepeda CM | – | 232 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 10 | 5 | – |
| Facundo Buonanotte AM | – | 223 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.27 | 0.01 | 8 | 1 | – |
| Ali Houary LM | – | 200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.04 | 5 | 3 | – |
| Abiel Osorio ST | – | 196 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.69 | 0.23 | 9 | 2 | – |
| Pedro Bigas CB | 36 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Rubén Sánchez RB | – | 178 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Martim Neto CM | – | 178 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 4 | 4 | – |
| Ezequiel Ponce ST | – | 115 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Umaru | – | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Josan RM | – | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0 | 5 | – |
| Álvaro Padilla | – | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Matia Barzic | – | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Rayo Vallecano
WLDLWLWD Elche
DLLLDLWD- Sun 11 Oct
v Celta VigoxG 0.9–0.30–0 - Fri 18 Sepat EspanyolxG 0.7–1.03–1
- Tue 15 Sepv Real MadridxG 1.6–3.12–3
- Sat 12 Sepat Athletic ClubxG 0.9–2.41–1
- Mon 7 Sepv Real SociedadxG 2.2–0.92–3
- Fri 28 Augat Racing SantanderxG 1.3–1.92–3
- Sun 23 Augv BarcelonaxG 0.6–3.40–5
- Mon 17 Augat Deportivo La CorunaxG 1.1–0.41–1
Head to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Rayo Vallecano: 4-0-1 (won, drawn, lost). 3.0 goals a meeting.Widest margin: Elche 4–0 Rayo Vallecano, La Liga, Sun 21 Dec 2025.
- Fri 3 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- Sun 21 Dec 2025Elche 4–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- Sat 29 Apr 2023Elche 4–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- Mon 3 Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- Fri 18 Feb 2022Elche 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- Sun 17 Oct 2021Rayo Vallecano 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- Mon 9 Feb 2015Elche 2–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- Sun 14 Sep 2014Rayo Vallecano 2–3 ElcheLa Liga
Show the other 2 meetings
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
Rayo VallecanoRAY
ElcheELC- League
- La Liga
- La Liga
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 13th · 8 pts from 7
- 18th · 6 pts from 8
- Won, drawn, losthome 2-1-0 / 0-1-3 · away 0-1-3 / 1-2-1
- 2-2-3
- 1-3-4
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.21 12th of 20
- 1.15 15th of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.80 18th of 20
- 1.66 14th of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +2.6 scoring · -3.4 keeping
- +1.8 scoring · -3.7 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 13.0 · 0.10
- 10.5 · 0.10
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-2-3-1 4 of 7
- 5-4-1 3 of 8
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1513 43rd +7
- 1460 76th +6
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 48 39–57
<1% · 1% · 6% - 41 32–49
<1% · <1% · 29%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Rayo Vallecano
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play78%
- From a corner18%
- Penalties4%
How their 45 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Elche
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play77%
- From a corner11%
- Penalties11%
- Other set pieces2%
How their 47 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Rayo Vallecano in the Lab Elche in the LabEvery meetingThe track record