Alaves ahead.
Alaves win about 54 times in 100. The other 46: a draw (27) or a Malaga win (19).
- Goals expected
- 1.6–0.9
- Likeliest score
- 1–114%
- Three goals or more
- 47%
- Both sides score
- 51%
Why
what stands behind the numbersAlaves are 7th of 20 with 11 points from eight matches; Malaga are 20th with 4 points from eight matches.
Alaves have a win, a draw and three defeats in their last five, while Malaga have not won in their last five (three draws and two defeats).
In their last ten meetings Alaves won five, Malaga two, with three draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | ALA win | Draw | MLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Alaves | ||||
| Top 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Bottom 3 | 4% | 2% | 5% | 7% |
  Malaga | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 66% | 70% | 65% | 55% |
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Barcelona | 8 | +27 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |   Atletico Madrid | 8 | +10 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 3 |   Real Betis | 8 | +5 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 4 |   Real Madrid | 8 | +11 | 18 | LWWLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | +4 | 11 | WLLDL |
| 18 |   Elche | 8 | -6 | 6 | LDLWD |
| 19 |   Valencia | 8 | -9 | 5 | LLWLD |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | -9 | 4 | DDLLD |
Players to watch
Vesta's chance that each scores, with his chance to start. Every player of both squads: the Players tab. Alaves
Vesta's chance to scoreAlaves
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Malaga have not won any of their last 8 La Liga matches (D4 L4), their longest such run since March 2018.
sample 8 · since August 2026
With a Malaga win, Vesta's chance of Malaga finishing in the bottom three would move from 66% to 55%.
Alaves have won their last 3 league meetings with Malaga.
sample 3 · since March 2017
Alaves are unbeaten in their last 6 league meetings with Malaga (W4 D2).
sample 6 · since September 2005
Adrián Niño has scored 2 league goals off the bench this season (2026-27).
sample 4
Mariano has scored 2 league goals off the bench this season (2026-27).
sample 5
Likely line-ups
Not confirmedMalaga3-6-1Alaves3-5-2The elevens Vesta expects, not the team sheets yet; the % is each one's chance to start.
Likely line-ups
not the team sheets yet: the elevens our model expects, in greyVesta's player chances use these elevens; a scenario can take a player out (Scenarios).
Sent off in Alaves's last match: Ángel Pérez. A ban is not certain from our data: the likely line-up keeps him.
What if a player misses it
Pick up to three players of the likely line-ups, for this match or the next ones too.Alaves
Malaga
Out forleague matches: this one, then the team's next ones
A scenario is a hypothesis, not news: nobody is reported missing here, except a ban that follows from our card data and the league's rule. It starts from Vesta's forecast and gives the place to the next most likely starter. One player's effect in Vesta is a lower bound (ADR 0032): on past seasons (2019/20 to 2023/24, 12,686 team-matches) a side missing a regular starter scored 1.4% fewer goals than the champion expected, while the model, told who played, moved it by 0.3%. The gap is not the same every season. Read the change as a minimum.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Alaves
24 players · Vesta's chances for this match, then the league season| Player | Age | Start | Score | Assist | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera GK | – | 92% | <1% | 1% | 720 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia CB | – | 90% | 6% | 2% | 677 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 6 | 2 | 0.07 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach LB | – | 90% | 8% | 14% | 660 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Ibáñez CM | 28 | 88% | 11% | 5% | 672 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.91 | 0.12 | 9 | 2 | 0.14 |
| Jonny RB | – | 81% | 1% | 3% | 607 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Boyé ST | 30 | 74% | 33% | 8% | 562 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2.59 | 0.53 | 17 | 4 | 0.50 |
| Denis Suárez CM | 32 | 72% | 5% | 10% | 362 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 2 | 12 | 0.26 |
| Antonio Blanco CM | – | 70% | 5% | 5% | 600 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 7 | 2 | 0.06 |
| Ángel Pérez RWB | – | 67% | 6% | 16% | 569 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0.78 | 2.26 | 12 | 10 | 0.48 |
| Nicolás Valentini CB | 25 | 64% | 3% | 2% | 307 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| Antonio Martínez ST | – | 62% | 25% | 8% | 421 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.62 | 0.74 | 12 | 6 | 0.50 |
| Ville Koski CB | – | 61% | 4% | 2% | 636 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 |
| Mariano ST | 33 | 41% | 13% | 8% | 339 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.01 | 0.61 | 11 | 3 | 0.43 |
| Carlos Benavídez DM | – | 32% | 3% | 3% | 156 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Ander Guevara CM | 29 | 32% | 5% | 5% | 114 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Aitor Mañas ST | – | 15% | 6% | 2% | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Carles Aleñá LM | 28 | 14% | 2% | 4% | 113 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 2 | 2 | – |
| Youssef Lekhedim LB | – | 12% | 1% | 3% | 134 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 1 | 3 | – |
| Miguel Rodriguez RM | – | 9% | 1% | 1% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Xanet Oláiz | 21 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Mikel Rodríguez CM | 24 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 150 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 2 | 3 | – |
| Jon Guridi CM | – | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Victor Parada CB | – | 4% | <1% | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Ibrahim Diabate ST | – | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
Malaga
42 players · Vesta's chances for this match, then the league season| Player | Age | Start | Score | Assist | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Herrero GK | – | 89% | <1% | <1% | 720 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ángel Recio CB | – | 87% | 2% | 2% | 720 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 6 | 1 | 0.03 |
| David Larrubia RM | – | 85% | 7% | 6% | 663 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 14 | 11 | 0.22 |
| Rafita LB | – | 81% | 1% | 4% | 650 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 |
| Chupe ST | – | 81% | 19% | 4% | 647 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2.85 | 0.14 | 16 | 3 | 0.42 |
| Dani Lorenzo CM | – | 79% | 4% | 4% | 512 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 2 | 5 | 0.06 |
| Pablo Martínez CM | – | 69% | 4% | 9% | 385 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 1.01 | 6 | 13 | 0.27 |
| Carlos Dotor CM | – | 64% | 5% | 4% | 508 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 4 | 5 | 0.13 |
| Joaquín Muñoz LM | – | 53% | 3% | 3% | 459 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.51 | 5 | 5 | 0.13 |
| Carlos Puga RB | – | 48% | 1% | 2% | 413 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 |
| Rafa Rodríguez DM | – | 42% | 3% | 2% | 227 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 10 | 2 | – |
| Izan Merino DM | – | 41% | 2% | 2% | 443 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 |
| Fernando Calero CB | 31 | 40% | 2% | 1% | 75 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| José Salinas LB | – | 36% | 1% | 1% | 360 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 |
| Adrián Niño | – | 29% | 7% | 3% | 110 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 7 | 1 | – |
| Adam Aznou LB | – | 29% | 1% | 1% | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Einar Galilea CB | 32 | 27% | 0% | 1% | 479 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cruz RM | – | 23% | 2% | 2% | 244 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 4 | 1 | – |
| Juan Berrocal CB | – | 18% | 1% | 1% | 91 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Eneko Jauregi ST | 30 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Haitam Abaida | – | 14% | 2% | 1% | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Ramón Enríquez | – | 12% | 2% | 2% | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 | 2 | – |
| Andrés Prieto GK | – | 5% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Jens Cajuste DM | – | 5% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Luis Hernández CB | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Isaac Success LM | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Maxime Lestienne RM | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Manuel Iturra LB | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Adrián CM | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Diego González CB | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Youssef En-Nesyri ST | – | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Diego Rolan ST | – | 4% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Roberto Rosales RWB | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Mehdi Lacen CM | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Ignasi Miquel CB | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Alejandro Robles RB | – | 4% | <1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Julen Lobete ST | 26 | 3% | 1% | <1% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Brown Ideye ST | – | 3% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Borja Bastón ST | – | 3% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Alberto Bueno AM | – | 3% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Keko RM | – | 3% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Alberto López | – | 3% | 1% | <1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Alaves
WDWWLLDL Malaga
LDLDDLLDHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Alaves: 3-1-1 (won, drawn, lost). 1.7 goals a meeting.- Sun 6 May 2018Malaga 0–3 AlavesLa Liga
- Thu 21 Dec 2017Alaves 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- Sat 11 Mar 2017Malaga 1–2 AlavesLa Liga
- Sun 16 Oct 2016Alaves 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
- Sun 12 Feb 2006Alaves 3–2 MalagaLa Liga
- Wed 21 Sep 2005Malaga 0–0 AlavesLa Liga
- Sun 20 Apr 2003Alaves 0–1 MalagaLa Liga
- Sun 24 Nov 2002Malaga 0–0 AlavesLa Liga
Show the other 2 meetings
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
AlavesALA
MalagaMLG- League
- La Liga
- La Liga
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 7th · 11 pts from 8
- 20th · 4 pts from 8
- Won, drawn, losthome 3-0-2 / 0-3-1 · away 0-2-1 / 0-1-3
- 3-2-3
- 0-4-4
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.19 14th of 20
- 0.89 18th of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.39 10th of 20
- 1.77 17th of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +2.5 scoring · +3.2 keeping
- -3.1 scoring · +1.1 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 12.1 · 0.10
- 8.5 · 0.12
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 3-5-2 5 of 8
- 4-1-4-1 6 of 8
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1494 57th +50
- 1451 81st +77
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 48 40–57
<1% · 2% · 4% - 35 27–43
<1% · <1% · 66%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Alaves
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below750'
6715'
4630'
101445'
9860'
101775'
- Open play69%
- From a corner16%
- Penalties11%
- Direct free kicks2%
- Other set pieces2%
How their 45 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Malaga
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below4100'
61215'
4430'
3645'
21060'
51475'
- Open play52%
- Penalties22%
- From a corner17%
- Other set pieces9%
How their 23 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
If it goes this way
the chance of each start, then the chance to win from it; only the ones tested on past seasons- Alaves score first then win 78%60%
- Malaga score first then win 49%33%
- Alaves score first, in the first 15 minutes then win 77%18%
- Alaves ahead at half-time then ALA win 83%40%
- Level at half-time then ALA win 42%42%
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideALAMLG
14.1Shots9.6
5.0Shots on target2.9
5.6Corners4.1
12.8Fouls14.6
2.0Yellow cards2.5
Each is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match
All of Vesta's numbers, published Sat 17 Oct before kick-off. Beside each chance: how Vesta's chances of that size, of that kind, came true on past seasons it never saw.Exact score
Alaves down the side, Malaga across · darker, likelier| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Result combinations
- Alaves win or draw81%80–90% came true 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)73%70–80% came true 74%
- Malaga win or draw46%40–50% came true 46%
Goals in the match
- 1 or more goals92%90–100% came true 94%
- 2 or more goals74%70–80% came true 74%
- 3 or more goals47%40–50% came true 45%
- 4 or more goals25%20–30% came true 25%
- 5 or more goals11%10–20% came true 14%
Exactly
- 0 goals8%not checked alone
- 1 goal18%not checked alone
- 2 goals27%not checked alone
- 3 goals22%not checked alone
- 4 goals14%not checked alone
- 5 goals7%not checked alone
- 6 or more goals4%not checked alone
Goals by team
- Alaves: 1 or more82%80–90% came true 85%
- Alaves: 2 or more49%40–50% came true 45%
- Alaves: 3 or more22%20–30% came true 24%
- Malaga: 1 or more61%60–70% came true 64%
- Malaga: 2 or more23%20–30% came true 26%
- Malaga: 3 or more6%0–10% came true 6%
Also
- Both teams score51%50–60% came true 54%
- At least one team does not score49%40–50% came true 46%
Winning margin
- Alaves by 3 or more12%not checked alone
- Alaves by 217%not checked alone
- Alaves by 125%not checked alone
- Draw27%not checked alone
- Malaga by 113%not checked alone
- Malaga by 25%not checked alone
- Malaga by 3 or more1%not checked alone
Halves
- A goal in the first half68%not checked alone
- A goal in the second half76%not checked alone
- Alaves ahead at half-time40%not checked alone
- Level at half-time43%not checked alone
- Malaga ahead at half-time18%not checked alone
- Alaves win the second half43%not checked alone
- Second half level38%not checked alone
- Malaga win the second half20%not checked alone
- More goals in the first half30%not checked alone
- More goals in the second half43%not checked alone
- Same goals in both halves27%not checked alone
Half-time and full-time
- Alaves ahead at half-time, Alaves win33%not checked alone
- Level at half-time, Alaves win18%not checked alone
- Malaga ahead at half-time, Alaves win3%not checked alone
- Alaves ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked alone
- Level at half-time, draw17%not checked alone
- Malaga ahead at half-time, draw5%not checked alone
- Alaves ahead at half-time, Malaga win1%not checked alone
- Level at half-time, Malaga win8%not checked alone
- Malaga ahead at half-time, Malaga win10%not checked alone
Clean sheets
- Alaves keep a clean sheet39%not checked alone
- Malaga keep a clean sheet18%not checked alone
- Alaves win without conceding31%not checked alone
- Malaga win without conceding10%not checked alone
- No goals at all8%not checked alone
The first goal
- Alaves score first60%not checked alone
- Malaga score first33%not checked alone
- No goals8%not checked alone
When it comes
- Minutes 1-1530%not checked alone
- Minutes 16-3021%not checked alone
- Minutes 31-45+16%not checked alone
- Minutes 46-6011%not checked alone
- Minutes 61-757%not checked alone
- Minutes 76-90+6%not checked alone
Corners
- 8 or more corners70%not checked alone
- 10 or more corners48%not checked alone
- 12 or more corners29%not checked alone
Each side
- Alaves: 6 or more47%not checked alone
- Malaga: 4 or more55%not checked alone
- More corners for Alaves60%not checked alone
- As many each11%not checked alone
- More corners for Malaga29%not checked alone
Yellow cards
- 2 or more yellow cards94%not checked alone
- 4 or more yellow cards65%not checked alone
- 6 or more yellow cards29%not checked alone
Each side
- Alaves: 2 or more58%not checked alone
- Malaga: 3 or more46%not checked alone
- More yellow cards for Alaves31%not checked alone
- As many each19%not checked alone
- More yellow cards for Malaga51%not checked alone
Shots
- 22 or more shots62%not checked alone
- 24 or more shots49%not checked alone
- 26 or more shots36%not checked alone
Each side
- Alaves: 14 or more52%not checked alone
- Malaga: 10 or more48%not checked alone
- More shots for Alaves74%not checked alone
- As many each5%not checked alone
- More shots for Malaga20%not checked alone
Shots on target
- 6 or more shots on target79%not checked alone
- 8 or more shots on target53%not checked alone
- 10 or more shots on target28%not checked alone
Each side
- Alaves: 5 or more55%not checked alone
- Malaga: 3 or more55%not checked alone
- More shots on target for Alaves71%not checked alone
- As many each11%not checked alone
- More shots on target for Malaga18%not checked alone
Fouls
- 25 or more fouls70%not checked alone
- 27 or more fouls56%not checked alone
- 29 or more fouls41%not checked alone
Each side
- Alaves: 13 or more51%not checked alone
- Malaga: 15 or more49%not checked alone
- More fouls for Alaves33%not checked alone
- As many each7%not checked alone
- More fouls for Malaga60%not checked alone
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- Vesta, published Sat 17 Oct 05:55 CEST, forecast 1619; never edited
- Player chances
- Logged Sat 17 Oct 05:55 CEST, before kick-off
- Line-ups
- Likely, from the starting-eleven model
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Alaves in the Lab Malaga in the LabEvery meetingThe track record