Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersAtletico Madrid are 2nd of 20 with 19 points from eight matches; Deportivo La Coruna are 8th with 11 points from nine matches.
Atletico Madrid have four wins and a defeat in their last five, while Deportivo La Coruna have not won in their last five (three draws and two defeats).
In their last ten meetings Atletico Madrid won seven, Deportivo La Coruna none, with three draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | ATM win | Draw | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Atletico Madrid | ||||
| Title | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Top 4 | 92% | 93% | 91% | 87% |
  Deportivo La Coruna | ||||
| Top 4 | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Bottom 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Barcelona | 8 | +27 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | +10 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 3 |   Real Betis | 8 | +5 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 4 |   Real Madrid | 8 | +11 | 18 | LWWLW |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | +1 | 11 | DLDLD |
| 18 |   Elche | 8 | -6 | 6 | LDLWD |
| 19 |   Valencia | 8 | -9 | 5 | LLWLD |
| 20 |   Malaga | 8 | -9 | 4 | DDLLD |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Deportivo at Atlético since 2001-02: 14 visits, 0 wins
Atlético won 13, 1 draw.
Last meeting: 2017-18, 1–0.
since 2001-02
Atletico Madrid have won their last 4 La Liga matches (goals 11-2), their longest such run since March 2026.
sample 4 · since September 2026
Deportivo La Coruna have conceded in each of their last 9 La Liga matches (12 goals against), their longest such run since February 2018.
sample 9 · since August 2026
Deportivo La Coruna have not won any of their last 5 La Liga matches (D3 L2), their longest such run since May 2018.
sample 5 · since September 2026
Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 home La Liga matches (W4 D1), their longest such run since January 2026.
sample 5 · since May 2026
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in each of his last 3 away league matches (3 goals).
sample 3 · since August 2026
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is 1 goal away from 250 goals in Europe's top five leagues (249 since his first season there, 2009-10).
sample 496
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Atletico Madrid
24 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Oblak GK | 33 | 720 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Álex Grimaldo LWB | 31 | 626 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2.17 | 0.79 | 13 | 9 | 0.43 |
| David Hancko CB | 28 | 566 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 9 | 3 | 0.15 |
| Giuliano Simeone RM | 23 | 553 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 10 | 7 | 0.30 |
| Marcos Llorente RB | 31 | 551 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 6 | 9 | 0.15 |
| Ademola Lookman ST | 28 | 529 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1.79 | 0.84 | 13 | 12 | 0.45 |
| Lee Kang-In ST | 25 | 509 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1.28 | 1.34 | 20 | 13 | 0.46 |
| Álex Baena LM | 25 | 495 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1.54 | 2.11 | 18 | 19 | 0.66 |
| Koke CM | – | 443 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 2 | 10 | 0.14 |
| Marc Pubill CB | 23 | 410 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 |
| Cristian Romero CB | 28 | 365 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | 0.27 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas CM | – | 352 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.54 | 4 | 7 | 0.20 |
| Morten Hjulmand CM | 27 | 347 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 3 | 8 | 0.11 |
| Robin Le Normand CB | 29 | 330 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Johnny Cardoso DM | 25 | 307 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.62 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 |
| Jonathan David ST | 26 | 215 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.53 | 0.89 | 11 | 7 | – |
| Arnau Ortiz LM | – | 139 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 2 | 5 | – |
| Rodrigo Mendoza CM | – | 113 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | – |
| Julián Álvarez ST | 26 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.05 | 8 | 2 | – |
| Dani Martinez CB | – | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Carlos Martín LW | – | 61 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | – |
| Jorge Domínguez RB | – | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Giménez CB | 31 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Alexander Sørloth ST | 30 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
Deportivo La Coruna
24 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Román GK | 26 | 810 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Giacomo Quagliata LB | – | 740 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1.06 | 6 | 7 | 0.16 |
| Mario Soriano CM | – | 695 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 11 | 11 | 0.23 |
| Ximo Navarro RB | – | 658 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 3 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Bil Nsongo ST | 22 | 599 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2.16 | 0.17 | 20 | 4 | 0.35 |
| Lorenzo Amatucci CM | – | 571 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ST | 37 | 556 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2.60 | 0.84 | 17 | 9 | 0.56 |
| Luismi Cruz RM | – | 524 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1.19 | 1.95 | 6 | 16 | 0.54 |
| Giménez CB | 31 | 511 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.15 | 6 | 2 | 0.10 |
| Bright Ede CB | 19 | 461 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 3 | 2 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Noubi CB | 21 | 450 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| Riki Rodríguez LM | – | 373 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 3 | 3 | 0.12 |
| Yeremay Hernández LM | 23 | 318 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 7 | 8 | 0.52 |
| Adrià Alti RB | – | 297 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 |
| Diego Villares DM | – | 262 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 4 | 3 | – |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen LW | – | 249 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.15 | 10 | 3 | – |
| Miguel Loureiro CB | 29 | 195 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| David Mella RM | 21 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Adama Traoré RW | 30 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Marc Casadó DM | 23 | 120 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Angelino LWB | 29 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Zakaria Eddahchouri | 26 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Teun Gijselhart | 21 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Kevin Sánchez | – | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Atletico Madrid
WDWLWWWWHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Atletico Madrid: 13-1-0 (won, drawn, lost). 2.5 goals a meeting.Widest margin: Atletico Madrid 6–0 Deportivo La Coruna, La Liga, Sun 9 Dec 2012.
- Sun 1 Apr 2018Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 4 Nov 2017Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Thu 2 Mar 2017Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 25 Sep 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 12 Mar 2016Atletico Madrid 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Fri 30 Oct 2015Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sat 18 Apr 2015Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 30 Nov 2014Atletico Madrid 2–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Show the other 20 meetings
- Sat 4 May 2013Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 9 Dec 2012Atletico Madrid 6–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 30 Apr 2011Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sat 11 Dec 2010Atletico Madrid 2–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sun 4 Apr 2010Atletico Madrid 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 21 Nov 2009Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 12 Apr 2009Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 16 Nov 2008Atletico Madrid 4–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sun 11 May 2008Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sun 6 Jan 2008Deportivo La Coruna 0–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 11 Mar 2007Atletico Madrid 2–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 21 Oct 2006Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sat 28 Jan 2006Atletico Madrid 3–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 10 Sep 2005Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 8 May 2005Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 19 Dec 2004Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 21 Feb 2004Atletico Madrid 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- Sat 4 Oct 2003Deportivo La Coruna 5–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 1 Jun 2003Deportivo La Coruna 3–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- Sun 12 Jan 2003Atletico Madrid 3–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
Atletico MadridATM
Deportivo La CorunaDEP- League
- La Liga
- La Liga
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 2nd · 19 pts from 8
- 8th · 11 pts from 9
- Won, drawn, losthome 3-1-0 / 1-3-1 · away 3-0-1 / 1-2-1
- 6-1-1
- 2-5-2
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 1.83 4th of 20
- 1.19 13th of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.05 3rd of 20
- 0.97 2nd of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- +3.4 scoring · +0.4 keeping
- +2.3 scoring · -3.3 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 16.7 · 0.11
- 10.4 · 0.12
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 4-4-2 5 of 8
- 4-4-2 4 of 8
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1620 10th +4
- 1497 53rd +112
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 73 64–81
2% · 92% · <1% - 49 40–57
<1% · 2% · 4%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Atletico Madrid
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play82%
- From a corner10%
- Penalties6%
- Direct free kicks2%
How their 62 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Deportivo La Coruna
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play71%
- From a corner17%
- Penalties9%
- Other set pieces3%
How their 35 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Atletico Madrid in the Lab Deportivo La Coruna in the LabEvery meetingThe track record