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Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna

52%Real Sociedad
25%Draw
23%Deportivo La Coruna

Real Sociedad ahead.

Tested

Real Sociedad win about 52 times in 100. The other 48: a draw (25) or a Deportivo La Coruna win (23).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:27 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals52%
Both teams score54%
Expected goals1.7 v 1.1
Most likely score1-112% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Real Sociedad4-5-14-4-2Deportivo La Coruna

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots14.711.3
Shots on target5.33.7
Corners6.33.9
Fouls13.012.3
Yellow cards2.12.4

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowReal Sociedad winDrawDeportivo La Coruna win
Real Sociedad
Top 42%3%2%1%
Bottom 35%3%6%7%
Deportivo La Coruna
Top 41%<1%1%1%
Bottom 38%11%8%5%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals76%
3 or more goals52%
4 or more goals31%
5 or more goals15%

Exactly

0 goals6%
1 goal18%
2 goals24%
3 goals21%
4 goals16%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%

Goals by team

Tested
Real Sociedad: 1 or more82%
Real Sociedad: 2 or more51%
Real Sociedad: 3 or more25%
Deportivo La Coruna: 1 or more66%
Deportivo La Coruna: 2 or more28%
Deportivo La Coruna: 3 or more9%
Both teams score54%
At least one team does not score46%

Winning margin

Tested
Real Sociedad by 3 or more13%
Real Sociedad by 216%
Real Sociedad by 124%
Draw25%
Deportivo La Coruna by 115%
Deportivo La Coruna by 26%
Deportivo La Coruna by 3 or more2%

Result combinations

Tested
Real Sociedad win or draw77%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Deportivo La Coruna win or draw48%

Clean sheets

Tested
Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet34%
Deportivo La Coruna keep a clean sheet18%
Real Sociedad win without conceding29%
Deportivo La Coruna win without conceding12%
No goals at all6%

The first goal

Model estimate
Real Sociedad score first58%
Deportivo La Coruna score first36%
No goals6%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1533%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Real Sociedad goals down, Deportivo La Coruna goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
05.97.13.31.10.30.1
111.111.75.72.00.50.1
28.99.45.91.70.50.1
35.25.42.91.20.30.1
42.32.41.30.40.1·
50.80.80.40.2··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half71%
A goal in the second half78%
Real Sociedad ahead at half-time40%
Level at half-time40%
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time20%
Real Sociedad win the second half42%
Second half level36%
Deportivo La Coruna win the second half22%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves25%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Real Sociedad ahead at half-time, Real Sociedad win33%
Level at half-time, Real Sociedad win17%
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time, Real Sociedad win3%
Real Sociedad ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time, draw5%
Real Sociedad ahead at half-time, Deportivo La Coruna win1%
Level at half-time, Deportivo La Coruna win9%
Deportivo La Coruna ahead at half-time, Deportivo La Coruna win12%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Real SociedadDeportivo La Coruna

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Mikel Oyarzabal7934%7%15%45%2.3
Orri Óskarsson bench3826%4%3%28%1.2
Luka Sucic7516%1%7%22%1.8
Gonçalo Guedes5013%<1%8%20%1.3
Carlos Soler7011%<1%13%23%1.1
Ander Barrenetxea489%<1%12%20%1.0
Job Ochieng bench347%<1%8%14%0.8
Yangel Herrera536%<1%3%10%0.7
Jon Aramburu905%<1%2%7%0.7
Jon Martín555%<1%1%6%0.4
Takefusa Kubo bench183%<1%4%7%0.3
Sergio Gómez862%<1%17%19%0.5
Beñat Turrientes bench312%<1%4%6%0.5
Alex Marchal bench132%<1%3%5%0.2
Luken Beitia bench362%<1%3%5%0.3
Jon Gorrotxategi bench252%<1%2%4%0.2
Mamadou Sarr bench301%<1%<1%2%0.1
Igor Zubeldia541%<1%2%3%0.2
Unai Marrero bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Remiro72<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang7629%5%11%37%1.6
Bil Nsongo7114%1%5%19%1.3
Luismi Cruz627%<1%10%16%0.6
Mario Soriano715%<1%10%15%0.8
Jonathan Asp Jensen bench215%<1%2%7%0.5
Lorenzo Amatucci724%<1%5%9%0.4
Riki Rodríguez504%<1%3%7%0.4
Giménez664%<1%3%6%0.5
Giacomo Quagliata783%<1%4%7%0.4
Yeremay Hernández bench263%<1%3%6%0.3
Adama Traoré bench202%<1%2%4%0.2
Ximo Navarro712%<1%2%4%0.3
David Mella bench162%<1%1%3%0.2
Diego Villares bench112%<1%<1%3%0.1
Marc Casadó bench242%<1%2%3%0.2
Bright Ede bench361%<1%1%3%0.2
Lucas Noubi541%<1%2%3%0.1
Zakaria Eddahchouri bench71%<1%<1%2%0.1
Miguel Loureiro bench23<1%<1%<1%2%0.1
Adrià Alti bench21<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Angelino bench12<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Leo Román90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0