Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna
Real Sociedad ahead.
TestedReal Sociedad win about 52 times in 100. The other 48: a draw (25) or a Deportivo La Coruna win (23).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:27 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang29%to score
- Bil Nsongo14%to score
- Luismi Cruz7%to score
- Mario Soriano5%to score
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Real Sociedad win | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | ||||
| Top 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Bottom 3 | 5% | 3% | 6% | 7% |
| Deportivo La Coruna | ||||
| Top 4 | 1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Bottom 3 | 8% | 11% | 8% | 5% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Real Sociedad goals down, Deportivo La Coruna goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 34% | 15% | 2.3 |
| Orri Óskarsson bench | 26% | 3% | 1.2 |
| Luka Sucic | 16% | 7% | 1.8 |
| Gonçalo Guedes | 13% | 8% | 1.3 |
| Carlos Soler | 11% | 13% | 1.1 |
| Ander Barrenetxea | 9% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Job Ochieng bench | 7% | 8% | 0.8 |
| Yangel Herrera | 6% | 3% | 0.7 |
| Jon Aramburu | 5% | 2% | 0.7 |
| Jon Martín | 5% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Takefusa Kubo bench | 3% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Sergio Gómez | 2% | 17% | 0.5 |
| Beñat Turrientes bench | 2% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Alex Marchal bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Luken Beitia bench | 2% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Mamadou Sarr bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Igor Zubeldia | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Unai Marrero bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Remiro | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 29% | 11% | 1.6 |
| Bil Nsongo | 14% | 5% | 1.3 |
| Luismi Cruz | 7% | 10% | 0.6 |
| Mario Soriano | 5% | 10% | 0.8 |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen bench | 5% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Lorenzo Amatucci | 4% | 5% | 0.4 |
| Riki Rodríguez | 4% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Giménez | 4% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Giacomo Quagliata | 3% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Yeremay Hernández bench | 3% | 3% | 0.3 |
| Adama Traoré bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Ximo Navarro | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| David Mella bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Diego Villares bench | 2% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Marc Casadó bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Bright Ede bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Lucas Noubi | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Zakaria Eddahchouri bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Miguel Loureiro bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Adrià Alti bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Angelino bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Leo Román | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



