Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Valencia v Villarreal
Vesta's forecast is published in the days before kick-off.
Why
what stands behind the numbersValencia are 19th of 20 with 5 points from eight matches; Villarreal are 11th with 8 points from eight matches.
Valencia have a win, a draw and three defeats in their last five, while Villarreal have two wins and three defeats in their last five.
In their last ten meetings Valencia won two, Villarreal five, with three draws.
What the result changes
each side's season chances now, and after each result| Now | VAL win | Draw | VIL win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Valencia | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 34% | 23% | 33% | 39% |
  Villarreal | ||||
| Top 4 | 30% | 23% | 26% | 36% |
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Barcelona | 8 | +27 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |   Atletico Madrid | 8 | +10 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 3 |   Real Betis | 8 | +5 | 19 | WWWDW |
| 4 |   Real Madrid | 8 | +11 | 18 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 8 | LLWWL |
| 18 |   Elche | 8 | -6 | 6 | LDLWD |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | -9 | 5 | LLWLD |
| 20 |   Malaga | 8 | -9 | 4 | DDLLD |
Worth knowing
Facts checked in our data, each with the period or the sample it stands on.Valencia have lost their last 3 home La Liga matches (goals 2-9), their longest such run since September 2016.
sample 3 · since August 2026
Villarreal have conceded in each of their last 12 away La Liga matches (18 goals against), their longest such run since February 2025.
sample 12 · since February 2026
Valencia have not won any of their last 4 home La Liga matches (D1 L3), their longest such run since August 2024.
sample 4 · since August 2026
Villarreal are unbeaten in their last 5 league meetings with Valencia (W3 D2).
sample 5 · since March 2024
With a Valencia win, Vesta's chance of Valencia finishing in the bottom three would move from 34% to 23%.
Pape Alassane Gueye has scored 2 league goals off the bench this season (2026-27).
sample 1
Likely line-ups appear once Vesta has the squads of both sides, in the days before kick-off.
The players
Every player of both squads: Vesta's chances for this match beside his league season. Tap a column to sort. Valencia
24 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 32 | 720 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| Pepelu CM | – | 670 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 |
| Javier Guerra CM | – | 669 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0.88 | 1.15 | 14 | 7 | 0.27 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld ST | 29 | 572 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.52 | 15 | 7 | 0.23 |
| Filip Ugrinic CM | – | 571 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 6 | 5 | 0.08 |
| José Gayá LB | – | 453 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 |
| Pablo Maffeo RB | 29 | 423 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 |
| Guido Rodríguez CM | – | 412 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Jesús Vázquez LB | – | 345 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby CB | – | 339 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 |
| Hugo Duro ST | – | 336 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.12 | 6 | 3 | 0.21 |
| César Tárrega CB | – | 322 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 |
| Justin de Haas CB | – | 313 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.62 | 1 | 3 | 0.18 |
| Ryunosuke Sato RM | 20 | 302 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 5 | 1 | 0.10 |
| David Otorbi RM | – | 291 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 6 | 6 | 0.33 |
| Arnau Martinez RB | – | 250 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Aliou Dieng CM | – | 222 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | – |
| Aaron Mayol DM | – | 180 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Umar Sadiq ST | 29 | 151 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Luis Rioja RM | – | 114 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 3 | 3 | – |
| Harvey Elliott AM | 23 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 2 | 3 | – |
| Iker Córdoba | – | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Raba ST | – | 66 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 3 | 2 | – |
| Aimar Blázquez | – | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
Villarreal
23 players · the league season| Player | Age | Min | Starts | G | A | xG | xA | Shots | KP | xG+xA /90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Veiga CB | – | 720 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.65 | 5 | 3 | 0.11 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye CM | – | 625 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1.28 | 0.41 | 10 | 8 | 0.24 |
| Alberto Moleiro LM | – | 510 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1.98 | 3.02 | 12 | 18 | 0.88 |
| Ayoze Pérez ST | 33 | 456 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3.10 | 0.72 | 16 | 9 | 0.75 |
| Georges Mikautadze ST | 25 | 439 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4.88 | 1.24 | 21 | 8 | 1.25 |
| Nicolas Pépé RM | 31 | 436 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.77 | 14 | 8 | 0.25 |
| Santiago Comesaña CM | – | 423 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Romero LB | 24 | 416 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 5 | 4 | 0.14 |
| Alexander Freeman RB | – | 398 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 3 | 6 | 0.09 |
| Tajon Buchanan RM | 27 | 372 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.85 | 11 | 8 | 0.52 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 36 | 360 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | – | 360 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Pau Navarro CB | – | 352 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Cardona LB | 27 | 337 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Santiago Mouriño RB | – | 336 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 1.10 | 2 | 3 | 0.32 |
| Nathan Saliba CM | 22 | 331 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 | 0.03 |
| Juan Foyth CB | 28 | 326 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 4 | 1 | 0.15 |
| Gerard Moreno ST | 34 | 312 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2.33 | 0.92 | 9 | 9 | 0.94 |
| Ilias Akhomach RW | 22 | 241 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 1.18 | 4 | 5 | – |
| Logan Costa CB | – | 85 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | – |
| Tani Oluwaseyi ST | 26 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1 | 2 | – |
| Carlos Macià | – | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
| Nizar El Jmili | – | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | – |
How they come in
Last eight in every competition we hold, newest first. Valencia
DLLLLWLD Villarreal
DDLLLWWLHead to head
Every meeting in our data: the leagues since 2001-02, the European cups since 2014-15; newest first. At Valencia: 13-5-7 (won, drawn, lost). 2.7 goals a meeting.Widest margin: Valencia 5–0 Villarreal, La Liga, Sun 10 Apr 2011.
- Sun 22 Feb 2026Villarreal 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 25 Oct 2025Valencia 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 15 Feb 2025Villarreal 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 31 Aug 2024Valencia 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 17 Mar 2024Villarreal 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Tue 2 Jan 2024Valencia 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Wed 3 May 2023Valencia 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 31 Dec 2022Villarreal 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga
Show the other 42 meetings
- Tue 19 Apr 2022Villarreal 2–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 30 Oct 2021Valencia 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- Fri 5 Mar 2021Valencia 2–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 18 Oct 2020Villarreal 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 28 Jun 2020Villarreal 2–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 30 Nov 2019Valencia 2–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Thu 18 Apr 2019Valencia 2–0 VillarrealEuropa League, Quarterfinals
- Thu 11 Apr 2019Villarreal 1–3 ValenciaEuropa League, Quarterfinals
- Sat 26 Jan 2019Valencia 3–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 23 Sep 2018Villarreal 0–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 5 May 2018Villarreal 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 23 Dec 2017Valencia 0–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 21 May 2017Valencia 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 21 Jan 2017Villarreal 0–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 1 May 2016Valencia 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- Thu 31 Dec 2015Villarreal 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 5 Apr 2015Valencia 0–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 2 Nov 2014Villarreal 1–3 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 23 Mar 2014Valencia 2–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 27 Oct 2013Villarreal 4–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 5 May 2012Valencia 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 8 Jan 2012Villarreal 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 10 Apr 2011Valencia 5–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 20 Nov 2010Villarreal 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 8 May 2010Villarreal 2–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 17 Jan 2010Valencia 4–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 23 May 2009Villarreal 3–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 10 Jan 2009Valencia 3–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 19 Jan 2008Villarreal 3–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 26 Aug 2007Valencia 0–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 26 May 2007Valencia 2–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 7 Jan 2007Villarreal 0–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Wed 22 Mar 2006Valencia 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 5 Nov 2005Villarreal 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 23 Jan 2005Villarreal 3–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Mon 30 Aug 2004Valencia 2–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- Fri 14 May 2004Villarreal 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 4 Jan 2004Valencia 4–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sun 11 May 2003Valencia 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- Sat 14 Dec 2002Villarreal 0–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sat 16 Feb 2002Villarreal 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- Sun 7 Oct 2001Valencia 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
The two sides, beneath the results
The league season in 11footy's own expected goals, Elo and Vesta's season simulations.
ValenciaVAL
VillarrealVIL- League
- La Liga
- La Liga
- Place and pointsthe league table now
- 19th · 5 pts from 8
- 11th · 8 pts from 8
- Won, drawn, losthome 0-1-3 / 1-0-2 · away 1-1-2 / 1-2-2
- 1-2-5
- 2-2-4
- Expected goals for, a match11footy's own xG, the league season
- 0.77 19th of 20
- 2.13 3rd of 20
- Expected goals against, a match1st = conceded the fewest chances
- 1.68 15th of 20
- 1.24 7th of 20
- Goals against the chancesgoals scored minus xG · xG against minus goals conceded
- -0.2 scoring · -1.6 keeping
- -4.0 scoring · -3.1 keeping
- Shots a match, xG a shotlast ten league matches
- 11.5 · 0.08
- 15.2 · 0.14
- Shape used mostthis league season
- 5-4-1 5 of 8
- 4-4-2 5 of 7
- Elo rating11footy's own; rank among the clubs of the five leagues, change over the last ten matches
- 1478 66th -17
- 1577 23rd -61
- Where Vesta sees the league season endpoints, 8 seasons in 10 between · title · top four · bottom three
- 40 31–49
<1% · <1% · 34% - 60 52–69
<1% · 30% · <1%
When they score and concede
By quarter hour over each club's last 38 league matches, and how its goals came. Valencia
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play76%
- From a corner12%
- Penalties12%
How their 41 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Villarreal
last 38 league matches · scored above, conceded below- Open play79%
- Penalties13%
- From a corner7%
How their 67 goals came (own goals of the other side left out). Added time counts in the last band of each half.
Numbers to expect
Vesta's expected number for each sideEach is checked on past seasons, said against what came. The check
Every forecast for this match is published with Vesta's forecast, in the days before kick-off.
Vesta on these teams, so far
Every settled forecast of a match of either side since the public record began.
What this page is made of
- Forecast
- None published
- Match data
- 11footy's match data of the five leagues: results since 2001-02, shots and expected goals since 2014-15 (11footy's own model)
- Season simulations
- 10,000 seasons, Vesta
Valencia in the Lab Villarreal in the LabEvery meetingThe track record